Tons of history vs this semi-reg which is probably also an apt description of myself. He plays something like 24/17. Definitely possible to be calling down a bit light given the history. Almost sure no Q and no overpair. I think the real question is what should the turn bet be. I will credit villain with possibly: 9, fd, sd, and maybe even tt. Obvious jam? Notice I didn't say good semi-regs!





Merge - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $4.00
SB: $5.03
BB: $5.00
UTG: $4.95
Hero (CO): $4.00

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has J J

UTG raises to $0.14, Hero raises to $0.48, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.34

Flop: ($1.02, 2 players) 9 Q 3
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.68, UTG calls $0.68

Turn: ($2.38, 2 players) 6

if that is your read, the you should check, it's more likly that he will fold most of his range to DB, but will turn some of it into a bluff on river or will call small bet on river (when he checks river you have easy desition and it's like he is saying I have PP or 9x) if he bet's his range is polarized to Qx+ and blufs

Goranbaxy is right because hes a good player ... but i would personally bet turn to make hand easier(how many hands/stats u got on this guy u said u have history but ur not telling us ).. if I got stats i can change turn.. BUT UTG is gonna call with J10S)4 combos) and could be 10's/JJ which is 8 combos.. also some OC like AK AJ type hands ...). i dont got enough personally to make a solid read... but goran is right.. check turn, then if riv is cheked make small value... a 9 mite call plus mabey 10's/JJ's/AK Etc if hes me :P....river is big on this hand if u no he can fold though.. if its a 10/J/K/Q i think u personally could shove if u no he folds 2nd pair often..... most peeps at 5nl neeeeeevverr fold TP.. i learned that hard way by shoved on A10jr boards and most people call with AQo or sometihng on turn :P. im abit drunk atm so its prob **** advice.. oo ya,,, if hes decent he can expect u to bluff that river a small amount of time and he will call lighter,,, which means u can bet a merged range there suched as ur jacks...

Important parts of history are this imo. Player would love to chase and hit flush, str8, A, or K. I don't feel a free card is a good option here, and I don't think a fold is coming even if pot odds aren't great for villain. With that in mind, is a jam ok? If any of those 4 come on the river, I would almost surely have to fold.

has he called your 3 bet with J 10 OOP or worse before?, with this stats i see him calling with AQ, KQs, 10s, 9s and not much more unless he doesnt care of pot odds. If there is alot of bluffing history between you two, then its a whole different thing. I would havent even bet the flop probably, you arent getting much value from worst hands other than 10s. Interesting hand, are you posting the results?

Player will occasionally stick around with random junk, but does not open that much out of the ordinary in EP. I would say the player could definitely bluff on the river, but I do not put him on anything better than tt, overcards, and draws after his flop check which is about what you think. In that case, I certainly think a flop bet is wise. Now we are on the turn, though, so what is the play? I will post the results after a little more time to see if anyone else wants to comment without bias being involved.

Im guessing that he checks the turn, so ill probably bet as a bluff representing AA or KK, we have some fold equity against Qx, if he reraises ill fold.

If he calls, and check the river ill check behind (if he is calling with TP i dont think he is folding to any bet), if he bets out its a tough decision unless we hit the Jh.

Yes, I should've left his action on the turn; and it was a check. If I bet, though, I think it is for value since I think I'm ahead. Also, as previously stated, I don't want to give a free card. Also, again, I doubt very much that he holds a Q.

I'm not sure you've explained what the history is beyond the fact that there is one. Have you show down some head scratchers against each other? It'd be helpful to know things like your 3bet%, your cbet%, his 4bet%, how many hands you have on him, etc. Has he ever shown down a head scratcher?

Flatting your 3bet might rule out KK-AA, but maybe not. I'v'e seen a lot of guys on Merge 4nl with a 0% 4bet. I don't really see a lot of draws out there, though - there's no flush on the flop, and he's gonna need a J to complete a straight (and you've got half of them.)

This could be a float with AK (even more likely if your cbet% is very high) or a pot control line with something good but not invulnerable like KQ or maybe 99-TT. I think as played you have to bet/fold turn and check back river. And if you get to the river, I'd expect to see a Q.

I probably did throw in some of the history although it might be more implied. In general, we mostly give each other some consideration; but semi-head scratchers have occurred. I do 3bet him regularly when I am to his left and we are in late positions, or if I am in the blinds since we are both somewhat positionally aware. He often folds which shows me that he can be a bit light. AA - QQ all out imo. Pretty sure he would've shoved at least the first 2, probably even the 3rd. I do see AK as possible, but I really did not see a Q because of the checking. Possible hands imo: AK, TT, FD, SD(maybe 9 included). As previously stated, player has been known to chase.

hands - ~ 15,000 total, and ~ 2,000 where we were involved to some extent.
Vill - 8% pf 4bet
Hero - 5.5% 3B, avg. ~ 60% flop CBet

Don't do that. If you bet, it's for value. He is never folding a queen.

Sorry but i dont get what you mean, or i think way to different, he is never folding Qx you said, and we have JJ and we want to extract some value? What worst hands can call us after a 3-bet flop, only AKs maybe 10s if he is a calling station.

For me its either to second barrel, or check the turn value bet the river, if he bets on a blank, call since he is bluff capable and hope he doesnt have Qx.

I feel this hand is going to be won by the OP in a fashion way and be a one of those really wear hands.

He's saying that given that he never folds a queen, we should never bluff.

It doesn't make sense to bluff if they don't fold top pair since we beat everything worse than top pair.

You should only bet the turn if you think he can call often enough with worse than Qx for us to extract value.

Great thoughts, players. If no more, I will post the complete hand later since at least Carlos is interested. Will put everything that came after what was initially posted in the spoiler.

Asuming v checked ott, check back.

As promised, here is the full hand with a little more comment in the spoiler.

Merge - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $4.00
SB: $5.03
BB: $5.00
UTG: $4.95
Hero (CO): $4.00

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has J J

UTG raises to $0.14, Hero raises to $0.48, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.34

Flop: ($1.02, 2 players) 9 Q 3
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.68, UTG calls $0.68

Turn: ($2.38, 2 players) 6

well going with your reads its very important, and you were correct this time, but i think you were a bit lucky he was on the bottom of his range, he is probably putting you on AA or KK, and he would have done the same thing with any Qs10s+ and you would be drawing dead to a J. I like your play more if you actually had AA or KK, with JJ i feel like you are gambling too much. But its just my opinion.

Thanks for the hand, very interesting.

and it was a valuebet. As I said, betting turn as a bluff is insane.