Quote:
Originally Posted by Coolerzzz234
Best answer of this thread.
The problem is that opponent knows that you have have high frequency Kx here and him potting looks like a valuebet to me.
Agreed +1 best answer in the thread.
So in MDA it is 39 weak but with the filters on it is 33 weak so I don't know how to account for that but whatever, let's look at the folding percentages.
MDA show's they bet/fold river 69% at B100.
MDF = 1-A
A = Risk/(Risk+Reward)
55.75/(55.75 + 64) = 46.5%
MDF = 1-46.5% = 53.5%. So we have a 15.5% discrepancy but we don't exactly know how to account for the 33 weak vs 39 weak (anyone have an ideas?)---->plus showdown bias but that won't be more than 5%.
And then you just use the Bluff raising formula:
EV = Edge(Raise + Bet + Pot) = 15.5%(55.75 + 32 + 32) = ~18.5ish BBs. So obviously it won't be that much of a winning play but it will definitely be higher than folding which is 0EV.
Looks like Jamming>>>>>>>>>>Folding>Calling.
Thanks ZK and check my math to make sure I'm not re*****.