100nl 100bb eff

Villain is reg haven't played them much

BTN opens 2.5bb, SB calls, Hero (BB) calls with K 8

Flop (7.5bb) K Q 7
SB and Hero check, BTN bets 2.25bb, Hero calls

Turn (12bb) K Q 7 6
Hero checks, BTN bets 10bb, Hero calls

River (32bb) K Q 7 6 K
Hero checks, BTN bets 32bb, Hero ?

AJ/AT/JTo/J9o/T9o with club barrels often, psb otr probably a bit less bluffy, but too many hands for reg to choose from that probably barrel at high freqs so I'd call personally

Can definitely see regs going hard in the paint on a board that favors them which would put me in the call camp.

One thing that could possibly sway me is the difference in bluffing freq when comparing a PSB to something like B150 OTR.

Probably fold.

Some data for B30-B-B BTNvsBB









Data points that make me want to fold are 3 way to the flop/B100 OTR/**** blockers. Him not being OBing the turn makes me less inclined to call as well since better players will OB------>have more river bluffs.

Pic #1, is that for 98X boards, or 98L boards?

Pic #3 is only for A high boards, right?

Do you have data for just b30, b75-100, b100 riv? or just data for RB flop, flush completing riv and B100?

Pic #2/4 would suggest its ~0ev call. I agree **** blockers and would prefer club.

Do you have above data also @tripleberry?

I did fold but might've called if they went slight overbet or 75%. Just hate paying off a potentially ABC reg that pots all their good hands.

I typically think the opposite and bluff catch bad boards for them, like if they probe turn and bet river when all the draws missed. I guess you have two competing forces where they're more willing to bluff but finding bluffs is harder.

Flop I assume they bet wider which should help us, but multiway the odds of them range betting seems low which is bad.

Shove if you have the balls.

Best answer of this thread.

The problem is that opponent knows that you have have high frequency Kx here and him potting looks like a valuebet to me.

Agreed +1 best answer in the thread.

So in MDA it is 39 weak but with the filters on it is 33 weak so I don't know how to account for that but whatever, let's look at the folding percentages.



MDA show's they bet/fold river 69% at B100.

MDF = 1-A

A = Risk/(Risk+Reward)

55.75/(55.75 + 64) = 46.5%

MDF = 1-46.5% = 53.5%. So we have a 15.5% discrepancy but we don't exactly know how to account for the 33 weak vs 39 weak (anyone have an ideas?)---->plus showdown bias but that won't be more than 5%.

And then you just use the Bluff raising formula:

EV = Edge(Raise + Bet + Pot) = 15.5%(55.75 + 32 + 32) = ~18.5ish BBs. So obviously it won't be that much of a winning play but it will definitely be higher than folding which is 0EV.

Looks like Jamming>>>>>>>>>>Folding>Calling.

Thanks ZK and check my math to make sure I'm not re*****.

Does this reg ever overbet? the turn seems like a pretty obvious spot.

We have 85bb in our stack so alpha would be 85/(85+32+32) = 57%

I'm seeing 44% B-B-B100F, BTN vs BB is higher but I feel like multiway would cancel that out?

The average alpha will be different because of different SPR and some non all-in raises

Okay confirmed re*****.

Yeah I put the stack size wrong. Thank you.

What's the sample size you have for the 44% B-B-B100F. It seems hard to get good samples on these spots since they almost never happen.

Turn sizing is probably a tell, I assume they clicked 3/4 and then plus. You know how something will cost $9.99 instead of $10? I've seen people read into 9.7bb vs 10.2bb thinking 10.2 is weaker.

More likely just a nit sizing up with value.

1200 so very likely <47%

I don't know if the multiway stuff matters a ton here... again the main combos that would be bluffs all bet flop at high freq even in multiway situation... if anything the multiway situation might remove some of the rivered value combos from the flop bet node (XXcc) that might otherwise just bet range/high freq.

I do agree though that our range looks like KX and psb otr imo is a bit strong overall. It does look like with the above data though that if its 33weak then you have 0EV bluff catcher... I would still imagine it is hard to be much worse than that and there is decent chance opponent can overbluff with all the natural combos.

The only thing I really dislike about calling is strictly the psb.

Was this on bonition? You should see hole cards soon, ye?

Yeah



Okay back to folding.

Looks like a pretty dicey spot if the guy doesn't use overbets.

Assuming most reg-types DB too many FDs. Relagating our meagre trips to be a relatively low EV bluffcatcher in what is essentially a boat v flush slug-out.

If villain is week between 33% and 39% with this line then its the easiest call ever as we need to be good 33% of all times - whats the problem?