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Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Triple with 66 on KQJX9

05-24-2023 , 07:39 PM
Are you tripling here? If not, what are some better bluff candidates?



Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO (139.7BBs) [VPIP: 25.8% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 34.4% | Flop Agg: 35.2% | Turn Agg: 37.4% | River Agg: 40% | 3Bet: 9.2% | Fold to 3Bet: 51.8% | 4Bet: 16.2% | Hands: 95492]
SB (129.8BBs) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 35.7% | AGG: 45.5% | Hands: 15]
BB (64BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 3]
UTG (100BBs) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 66.7% | Hands: 13]
HJ (100BBs) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 9.1% | AGG: 80% | Hands: 12]
CO (106.8BBs) [VPIP: 45.5% | PFR: 36.4% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 11]

Dealt to Hero: 6 6

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To 2.5BBs, HERO Raises To 8BBs, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls 5.5BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.68 effective]
Flop (17.4BBs): J Q K
CO Checks, HERO Bets 5.5BBs (Rem. Stack: 126.2BBs), CO Calls 5.5BBs (Rem. Stack: 93.3BBs)

Turn (28.4BBs): J Q K 4
CO Checks, HERO Bets 17.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 108.4BBs), CO Calls 17.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 75.5BBs)

River (64BBs): J Q K 4 9
CO Checks, HERO Bets 108.4BBs (allin)
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 08:36 PM
Don't like going bananas on this turn
River is fine
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aner0
Don't like going bananas on this turn
River is fine
If we x back turn, and villain x's on the 9h river. Do we still bluff?

What if river is something like the 3c?
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 08:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by newguyhere
If we x back turn, and villain x's on the 9h river. Do we still bluff?

What if river is something like the 3c?
1 probably yes 2 probably no
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 09:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aner0
Don't like going bananas on this turn
River is fine

^^^I never understand this.

aner, how do we judge river is fine if turn is overkill? By definition we never get here with this range?

Are you saying *if* we're overbluffing turn then overbluff river? As in: it's a spot thing. Alright... But even then why aren't we compounding negative EV.? We shouldn't be in this spot with this much junk so let's punt it anyway?
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 09:11 PM
trouble with the Ah is it blocks CCFs, moreso if fish. Th is good card. Sim it. You think gto would push set equity on the turn
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 09:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceres
^^^I never understand this.

aner, how do we judge river is fine if turn is overkill? By definition we never get here with this range?

Are you saying *if* we're overbluffing turn then overbluff river? As in: it's a spot thing. Alright... But even then why aren't we compounding negative EV.? We shouldn't be in this spot with this much junk so let's punt it anyway?
66 wouldn't be overbluffing turn, it's just a standard barrel, but i don't like it.
You can judge a river in a vaccuum regardless of your range, you can for instance make a -ev decision on the turn and then make a 0 or +ev decision on the river in the same hand
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 09:48 PM
So looks like Pio is using lower PPs for triples, but only betting non-heart combos on turn. River is stupendous for CO and they should be shoving themselves >50%. We can imagine they do not do this and the X range is stronger, presume a noded BU would thus bet even less
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 09:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aner0
66 wouldn't be overbluffing turn, it's just a standard barrel, but i don't like it.
You can judge a river in a vaccuum regardless of your range, you can for instance make a -ev decision on the turn and then make a 0 or +ev decision on the river in the same hand

Ok. thanks. i need to think about this more
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 09:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceres
So looks like Pio is using lower PPs for triples, but only betting non-heart combos on turn. River is stupendous for CO and they should be shoving themselves >50%. We can imagine they do not do this and the X range is stronger, presume a noded BU would thus bet even less
On my sim there's barely any donking on river, i think bluffing is ok because he has to defend more than just straights+, has to find some calls with some weird 2p and such

Also, I think assuming population never donks here i think is a mistake, I feel like some players here and there will donk and it will be super value heavy, leaving the checking range slightly weakened
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 11:01 PM
no one in their right mind bluffs this runout cause it's impossible to guesstimate how much of their range is straight+ in game which makes it cool but just way too much credit to assume they'd ever think twice with a straight realizing they're only ever bluff/split catching or are u actually shoving some Tx to make villain's Tx indifferent assuming that'd have adjustive implications beyond the hand in question
Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote
05-24-2023 , 11:05 PM
I'm looking at a GTO Wiz Sim and it Donk Jams a ton OTR. It makes sense since CO has more flushes and more Tx than IP while IP will have more sets/2pair. I bet CO even has more straights/flushes than he should have because CO will under XR flop.

I think just give up river, if you nodelock to 0% donking (or just less donking) it's not going to bet much as IP.

Not sure about turn bet since I don't think many hands fold turn on this board texture (although they probably fold river on blanks so it could be okay).

Triple with 66 on KQJX9 Quote

      
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