iPoker - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $29.00 (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 10.71, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 32)
UTG: $365.62 (VPIP: 24.39, PFR: 19.51, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 43)
CO: $130.16 (VPIP: 32.35, PFR: 29.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
Hero (BTN): $120.44
SB: $113.28 (VPIP: 8.82, PFR: 2.94, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 34)

SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.50) Hero has A K

UTG raises to $3.00, fold, Hero raises to $9.50, fold, fold, UTG calls $6.50

Flop: ($20.50, 2 players) 3 K 8
UTG checks, Hero bets $6.50, UTG raises to $16.00, Hero calls $9.50

Turn: ($52.50, 2 players) 6
UTG bets $19.10, Hero calls $19.10

River: ($90.70, 2 players) 8
UTG bets $79.47, Hero

jw if anyone finding a fold here? not much beats us but pretty strong line. vs reg

There's no way you can fold AK here imo, he could be over bluffing the clubs or spades for sure, and there's only like 10 value combos possible that beat us unless he's getting out of line with his utg range here or value raising 8X without a draw on the flop which would be ridiculous. Even if the only flush draws he has here are AXcc, he would still only need to be bluffing with half of those combos for you to be able to call river considering how little value there is out there with us blocking AA, KK, and the 2nd 8 coming on the river. I can probably come up with 20+ combos of hands that could get to this river like this and want to bluff, and you only need him to have 5 in his range to call. That ignores the possibility of him having worse value or having AK himself, which are both things that could happen considering how tight your value range would have to be to support all the bluffs you would have otr.

It's tough to fold KT on the river. AK is super easy.

It's silly to think that he has every combo of those.

This is even sillier. idc how you try to justify it in theory because in practice, sane people aren't raising worse than AK otf for value when they raise UTG and get 3-bet.

and.....go!

I agree with all of that, but at the same time, villian should not have 33, K8 or KK here. So he only reps 88! Do you suggest folding or are you just pointing out flaws in the thoughtprocess of emitnul?

That. I'm not advocating to fold or call.

Gotcha! Well what would you do in this spot?

Call. Guy reps exactly 88, so you'll feel like a fool when he flips it over, but he needs to bluff so infrequently that you can't really fold.

All that, will show down 33 and KK as well though

AsQs, AcQc, AsJs, AcJc, QsJs, QcJc, AsTs, AcTc, JsTs, JcTc, As9s, Ac9c, Ts9s, Tc9c, As8s, As7s, Ac7c, 9s7s, 9c7c, Ac6c, 7c6c, As5s, Ac5c, 6c5c, As4s, Ac4c, 5s4s, 5c4c, Ac3c, As2s, Ac2c

He needs 5 or 6 of these for this to be a call if you let him have 33 and K8s. It's not close.

I'm not sure I agree on this. When you have like KQhh here, you're either going to have to x/c 3 streets or value raise your King to try to get value from the club draws. You could definitely make the case that KQhh would want to check river to bluff catch, but it also makes sense to bet if you realized how many missed draws you can have here since there's almost no value to protect your range. I know you think that nobody would ever play like this, but it's definitely a bad idea to think nobody is ever doing something and then over folding because of it. Some people are raising KQ, KJ, and KT on the flop, and that would widen their river value range to 16 combos which would let them have more bluffs here as well. AK does amazing against that range though, so we have an even easier decision if our opponent is making that raise otf. I was bringing that scenario up to illustrate that the range I was putting him on was the range of a super nit who can literally only have the nuts or an extremely strong missed draw, and then he only has to have half of the strong missed draws for us to call anyways. Seems tough to fold any KX here unless you really think this guy realizes how imbalanced his normal bluffing range is here and gives up with almost all his missed draws. I'm definitely betting on him over bluffing, but yeah, maybe he's making this river jam with 12 combos and almost never bluffing and we lose when we call with a king.

I will confess to not reading all of it. When I say "never" that's not what I actually mean. I know that people can spaz and maybe one or two regs at a stake may play like that. By "never" I mean that it's not happening even close enough to consider it to be a factor in the hand. "never" is just much easier to type

editsssssss:
A realistic range. This guy doesn't look like a whale.

needless to say the 8h is a good card for us. If we fold on this are we explo folding every river?

Just fold black AK if you are desperate to hero fold. Having a red ace gives him way more bluffs.

probably always calling. flop/turn size stood out to me though-seems kinda value heavy though since with even a slightly larger sizing he sets up a much lower SPR on the river to shove (did some rough math if he makes his flop raise just 3BB bigger, and still bets the same percentage on the turn, there's about 65% pot left behind as opposed to 83% behind) but at the same time he's reppin literally one value combo of 88, and so probably cant ever fold this on this runout

Andy, I'd fold.

Let's forget anything else I said and remember that I said he reps exactly 88.

results-oriented, much?