Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($100) [VPIP: 28.7% | PFR: 24.4% | AGG: 37.6% | Flop Agg: 44.3% | Turn Agg: 33.8% | River Agg: 36.1% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | 4-Bet: 14% | Cold Call: 8.3% | Hands: 129435]
UTG ($55.57) [VPIP: 53.3% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 28% | Hands: 32]
HJ ($103) [VPIP: 27% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 30% | Hands: 38]
CO ($190.15) [VPIP: 31.6% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 19]
BTN ($104) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 16.7% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 30]
SB ($100) [VPIP: 23.7% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 42.9% | Hands: 39]

Dealt to Hero: A 3

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $2.50, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $1.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.73 effective]
Flop ($5.50): 4 A 6
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.73 (Rem. Stack: $185.92), HERO Calls $1.73 (Rem. Stack: $95.77)

Turn ($8.96): 4 A 6 9
HERO Checks, CO Bets $11.39 (Rem. Stack: $174.53), HERO ?

Call. His range should be better Ax sets and turned fds like K5 K3 spades. And some total air with a high spade.

Ah, those spots where everything you do seems wrong. I think you're supposed to call.

I hate it but we have to call unfortunately

solver says pure call but u know that so im assuming incoming MDA post about how people dont bluff enough here and we already indifferent so we should just fold

I agree with the solver. V should have give ups OTR where we win sometimes when it goes x/x.

Don't have MDA for this spot unfortunately

Whenever someone pulls a decentish OB turn move IP I tend to give them enough bluffs to make calling most pairs +EV.

If there is MDA out there for this I predict a decent ratio of people are totally ****ing it up and overbluffing if anything. And almost certainly not following through on rivers enough so it's not like this is always B-B-SHOVE

I think that last point is important and makes me want to call more as well. Not only are they not shipping enough rivers but they aren't value betting thin enough either.

it's hard to valubet river after ob thinly, when OB caller have a lot of 2 pairs, and near 0 tp weaker kicker hands on blankish rivers

Like A3 op has and calls turn with? Every A calls that turn bet.

taking a look at the solve i can see pros and cons for calling the turn. i think people bet way too many strong / semi strong hands on the flop (stuff like AJ+ and even 2 pair is a mix but i feel like i never see that stuff when they check back). turn its kind of mixing this stuff too but again i think people just bet them and check the river almost always. Yeah they dont really bet AT / AJ too much unless bad reg but still. I think people overdo the natural bluffs (SS, Straight draw, maybe QJ / jt) with near 100% frequency but miss the unnatural ones - q5, q7 k3, j7 stuff. Im not sure if this is good or bad for us calling, im inclined to think the more they bet the bare 2 broadway hands we want to be calling because i think average ssnl reg overdoes it otf with that type of hand. i also think people are going to play the river poorly in some manner. It's hard for me to do MDA / get a sample on stuff because the pool i put in a ton of volume on makes it very difficult to use a hud. On a brick river hes supposed to be jamming the non spade t7, j7, q5 stuff that i dont think people have so i think that player type will way underbluff, and the guys who run it with like JTo QJo are going to be betting way too many combos. On a brick 2 hes supposed to be checking back AQ / AK and i dont think people are doing that either with pure frequency so while that works against us with a3, it increases the ev of this situation in general for us. At least going for Overbet on the river with those hands is too thin.