Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $25.50
BB: $25.00
UTG: $22.25
BTN: $24.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt A K (4 Players)
UTG raises to $0.75, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.65, BB folds

Flop: ($1.75) T K A (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.75, Hero raises to $3.00, UTG calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.75) 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $6.00, UTG calls $6.00

River: ($19.75) Q (2 Players)
Hero ?????

Its obviously a horrible card, but on the other hand I can't do much different imo. What is the best play here? I'd prefer to reveal some more of my thoughts after some discussion.

Villian is running 50/27 after 19 hands.

uh 3-ball PF? Pot your flop and turn, he'll call anyway.

As for the river, it's really not that bad of a card. I mean yeah sometimes he has a jack but not that often. I think I'd shove.

shoving is bad, never called by worse (two pair is very likely to raise somewhere on turn or flop, fdraw won't pay you off, no lone aces in his range that can call ~ psb on the turn), so you are hoping to get called only by AQ or KQ precisely, so it'd be pretty thin, while the rest of his range contains KJ, QJ, JT with any combinations of diamonds, and it's 50/27 and there is a really good chance you have just got rivered

wat

And shoving is less than a PSB

since he just flatted us two streets, he never has two pair or a set on this board - they usually raise. so, this leaves us with:

We beat:
AQ, KQ

We lose to:
KJ, QJ, AJ, Jd9d, JdTd

Board: Ts Kd Ad 3c Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.571% 28.57% 00.00% 12 0.00 { AsKh }
Hand 1: 71.429% 71.43% 00.00% 30 0.00 { AQs-AJs, KJs+, QJs, JdTd, Jd9d, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QJo }

and then goes the math, but running out of time now

Oh so he has QJ but he never has two pair. Interesting.

if you can type "wat" and highlight 50/27 in my posts, then you should probably know that a made straight does look like the nuts to a fish and he wants to slowplay it and get more from you having positional advantage and two pair, for some reason, is not that nutish! of course its possible he just has pair+draw and they account for a bigger part of his range, but QJ is always a possibility against them.

Ok, how would you react to this scenario?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $25.50
BB: $25.00
UTG: $22.25
BTN: $24.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt A K (4 Players)
UTG raises to $0.75, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.65, BB folds

Flop: ($1.75) T K A (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.75, Hero raises to $3.00, UTG calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.75) 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $6.00, UTG calls $6.00

River: ($19.75) Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG goes all-in for $12.50, Hero ???

snaaaaaaaaap call

Your river decision is c/c. It's not uncommon for QJ, AJ, KJ to be in his range here. Shoving will be bad because you're only going to get called by a jack, and everything else will fold out to you. You have significant showdown value.

You have to 3-bet pre for sure next time.

I have to disagree saying that if he already had a straight, set or two pair he would be raising you on the streets. It really depends on your opponents aggression factor etc. Players at these stakes are so weak it's really hard to put them on a hand sometimes. I also see players calling down with mid pair and a gutshot without the odds all the time.

check/call. Let missed diamonds and worse two pair take a stab at it.

Check/snapcall - Js are not really a huge worry imo.

Originally I was thinking that a shove on the river would have been more suitable because of the folding equity. Then after reading what you are all saying, I realise how stupid that is.

What do I want to fold?

I'm beating all the marginal hands out there, such as two pair / missed diamonds in the above post. Perhaps a set however I don't think he would have played at set in this way, and a J is never folding in a million years so you're right. I'm just hurting my value by shoving more than checking.

I guess I have to think about hand ranges more and consider what they may have and what my actions will do against their range. I know this seems obviously but its something thats been really talked about in theory but I find hard to put into practice at the table when you have 10 seconds to consider.

Cheers all.