Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Villian is 44/23/3 over 133 hands.

UTG: $26.10
MP: $23.40
Hero (CO): $52.65
BTN: $30.55
SB: $26.85
BB: $59.95

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with J K
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BB raises to $1.45, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($3.00) 6 2 K (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $5, BB raises to $8, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($19.00) J (2 players)
BB bets $4.25, Hero raises to $12, BB calls $7.75

River: ($43.00) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $38.50 all in

Anyone folding this river?

Comments on rest of hand also welcome.

dont raise flop, raise turn bigger, and meh call riv, this guy is ******ed enough to show up with worse.

Are those raise sizes standard for him? It just seems to me like he was trying to keep you in the pot until BOOM river shove. Pocket aces played horribly?

Preflop: we're 200 BBs deep so unless we have a lock of a hand, we are not looking to get all our money in by the river. Keep this in mind as we go through the rest of the hand.

I would flat call the flop bet, he's not calling your raise with anything that you beat. The board is very dry. Keep the pot small with a marginal hand.

On the turn, I like the raise to get value out of worse Ks or AA.

River is pretty sick, I can't imagine villian is committing himself with 200 BBs with anything you beat. I have to fold here.

I'm defiantly calling here
He played that flop like a strong King and would have folded any x2, you got lucky on the turn too pick up that jack. Im guessing hes got you on a weaker King

Don't all his small bets/raises look sort of suspicious. Then on the river he drops a ~psb? That's sending up some warning flags for me.

What are you expecting him too have that beats you though?
He was representing a strong Kx or AA with the flop re raise, i cant think of any hands that beat you the way he played it

Well KK and AA beat us. He could have AK and a slight chance of something like KQ, which we beat. I wish I could explain myself more than I already did, but I can't think of anything else right now.

If you are going to call the preflop rr, then you should be acquainted with the concept of reverse implied odds - you hit, you're still behind, and you lose a lot of money because of it.

With this rr, I see villain having so many hands that beat you like that. AJ, KQ, AK...possibly AA, KK, QQ, JJ. So you really could contemplate folding preflop, even with position and such juicy pot odds. If you hit a TP jack and he shows up with AJ, it looks like you are losing your whole stack with how aggro you are with TPGK.

If you really want to call the RR preflop, you need to be a lot more skilled on the flop, by calling the flop bet...you might very well still be behind, no need to build the pot. Once the turn comes you are almost certainly ahead, so raise hard. That way you are putting most of the money in ahead, and you control the size of the pot by the river.


By hand combinations:

AK - 12 combos
KQ - 12 combos
AA - 6 combos
KK or JJ - 2 combos

Only AA and KK or JJ beat you. I'm not even including the remote possibility ~5% (or greater) that villain is acting crazy with QQ/K10 or something. This is definitely a river call as played.

Also, that turn raise is really too small. It's 7.75 more to him in a pot that is now 19+4.25+12 = 35.25. you are giving him >4.5/1 on the turn and you aren't even getting him to commit his stack on the river with a weaker hand.

That raise needs to be up to 16/17 on the turn IMO. That way the pot is 52/53 on the river with 33/34 dollars left in the stacks...it's a lot harder for him to fold a weaker hand then. By the turn you are definitely playing for stacks, so bet that way.

True, but I think we have to assign percentages to each of these hands (e.g. I don't think KQ should have the same weight as AK even though there are the same number of combos, because he has to be a total spaztard - even more than his stats suggest - to play it this way). I think AA and KK are always getting to this river, as is AK. Maybe add a few KQ combos too.

Hm...based on pot odds this might be more of a call than I originally thought.

I agree, you have to adjust the percentages, but it's not even close.

You beat 24/32 hands. Even if you shave off half of those hands and assume he only does this play with AK, you still have a definite call, beating 12/20. You would have to say he only takes this line a quarter of the time with AK before the call becomes unprofitable.

If he ONLY does this play 1/4 of the time with AK, and every time with AA, KK, JJ, then you beat 3/9 possible hands and you are getting better than 2 to 1 from the pot. This is a must call.

Thanks for advice.

I was multi-tabling and kind of tilting when i played the hand and called the river shove a bit too quickly. Villain had AA. Good read Bambam.

I would still strongly encourage a call on the river (as played). Think about ranges, not what he had this hand. If he does the same play with AK, then you absolutely MUST call.

And fold preflop. Deepstacked KJ has only broadway straight value.

I agree with BPL above, we always have to think about ranges, and without reads, you should call this. If you had more reads you may have been able to get away from it, that's just the way it goes sometimes. I'd make a note on how this played out and observe how he plays TPTK hands in the future.

call and ship it.

These hand combos are actually wrong, should be 8 apiece for AK and KQ.