Villain is running 23/19 ag factor 2.3 and is pretty competent IMO, at least compared to my last three months of grinding 10NL on Merge. I've got about 2k hands on him and in that time we have played some hands against one another, and pretty aggressively at that. I am running 20/16 ag factor 3.5 (flop: 3.8 turn: 3.4 river: 2.7), steal from sb 39%.




I am trying to get value from worse Jacks and pocket pairs. As I was writing this, I checked to see my bet sizing on the river and realized that 78% is way too much. I am almost certain I am beat here. I just don't think villain is bluff-raising here, but if any player on Merge 10NL would do it, it might be this fellow.

calling otr, and bet sizing looks fine to me.

I think it's fine. I don't think there are many worse jacks that you can get value from, but def worse hands that you might get looked up with.

how can you call the river? what does he have?

Nh, hard to fold these sometimes to that sizing.

so the fold is okay, but the bet sizing his alright as well? IMO the only way I am getting a competent player to call with anything less than KJ is if he thinks I am bluffing (If Im in his shoes, I might consider the possibility that J9 is no good). So, perhaps I was on diamond draw that didn't get there and now I am trying to get him to lay down 33, 44,66-99 and A5s. I think against a worse player bet sizing is fine but against this guy I need to bet somewhere around .6 PSB (less than that makes it look like I'm milking him).

dimonds.
If he's decent he should realise you bet all overpairs plus J's this way and you fold out all your overpairs to his super strong looking raise therefore should work.

after that many hands do you have any reads on him?
If you don't think he's bluff raising here it's a fold

So you think he's bluffing here? If that is the case then I am letting him bluff me. It is way more likely he has me beat than he is bluffing. I agree with you that he could be on a fd, but that is only part of his range. He can't raise the flop because the board is so dry and the story is the same on the turn. On top of that, his bet sizing screams strength (but I guess he wouldnt want to bluff with any more money than he had to). Personally, I rarely see many players at 10NL bluff-raising the river. Im pretty sure I have done it once in the last month and a half. My point is that although you have identified the hand he could have in this spot that I am ahead of, you seem to be focusing completely on that one element of his range and not giving a fair chance that he holds the rest of his range, which has me crushed.

Point taken, he only needs to be bluffing or raising worse 1 in 5 to make it a call tho.

yea very true.

you got min raised on the river

fold