BTN: $5.00
SB: $5.07
BB: $14.12
UTG: $24.85
Hero (MP): $7.72
CO: $6.48

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP with A A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.14, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.14, SB calls $0.12, BB calls $0.09

Flop: ($0.56) K 2 J (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.37, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.37

Turn: ($1.30) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.87, BB raises to $2.40, Hero calls $1.53

River: ($6.10) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $5.80, Hero calls $4.81 all in

Cry because he had QTs ? Get it in on the turn, even if he has exactly QT you still have outs.

haha yes
I know I should gii on turn,just was very tilted

You have second nuts while v. value range is definitely wider than just QT combos, hardly an ugly spot.

Wider?I think he can have 22 and QTs.You see something else play this way?

Bomb the flop 4 way on this board. Standard 75% bet doesn't apply here.

Then you bomb turn.

Then you snap off any shove. You got outs vs Q10 is they have that.

AK proly raises turn.

I block AK very hard and I expect,BB to raise AK preflop at least 60% of time when he have it so sure 1 comb of that and I block semi bluffs too,so when he raise turn I sure its for value and for value he raise QTs and 22 and I dont know even if he dosnt raise flop with set of 2

what about AJ or KJ or a passive JJ preflop.

22 also as already mentioned. Also a passive KK preflop maybe. at 5NL, villains are going to play kind of weird so a wider range is acceptable. You have top set, you got to jam turn no matter what.

If AK doesn't 3 bet pre then I think it's a mistake to assume AK will raise turn.

Instead of just naming hands, count the combo's...

QT: 16
AJ, AK, JJ: 8 (at best?)~ (discounted because AK probably raises PF especially multiway, maybe JJ too, AJ may not raise turn etc)

Becomes an easy call because of FH value too, but shoving is way worse. River isn't a snap either. You block As. Probably folding river here.

JJ, 22 XR flop most likely. Not even gonna include KK.

V has Q10, 22, and maybe, MAYBE JJ lol. V has next to no two-pair hand that would play this way - the only hand that would be shoving riv is something like AK - this hand would be raising a lot pre, plus we have blockers to aces (I guess there is an argument for V having KJ, but I don't think that hand would be shoving riv v often). I think given our price this is JUST a +ev call, if not break-even. Interested to here arguments about V having a wider range here?

I just feel like everyone is giving 5NL villain too much credit and not adding in any bluffs either or just rando's that are overvaluing their hand.

Q10 makes SENSE but I think this is a snap all day long without further information and it's not like it's super deep and it's a river over shove.

I think its just comes down to:Is V calling PF with all QT or just QTs.My assumption was that he calling PF only with QTs(I could be wrong very ez) but if his range is 22(3) and QTs(4) so its marginally profitable
Now when I do the math it looks like its fold :/

3 callers in front of him, he has QTo all day long. I would.

Edit: In his range...

Q10o is definitely in the range, so it's 16 combos.

I think you mis interpreted what I was saying. I am not saying he 100% has QTo, I am responding to the guy who said he might not have QTo in his range.

Just weird that you said exactly what I said.

You said villains has Q10o "all day long" , what does that mean - 95%? 90%? 80%?

I am saying Q10o needs to be part of any well constructed range here and I am not so much 'agreeing' with you but providing a statement of truth so that the truth statement receives more back up which in turn will let the OP get a better feel for how to construct proper ranges.

Maybe english isn't your primary language because I wasn't saying Q10 was the ONLY hand villain has, I am saying Q10o is for sure within the entire range (which I see you just edited in your previous post.)

okay then...

You are right QTo make sense
I make mistake its Definitely fold on river,even if he have JJ AK 22 QT its still fold.I just try to make excuse in my mind to not fold top set

Ok I have your call at river to be 31% equity needed. Someone please double check me because It's been a long time since I did an equity calculation.

My math was 4.81 / (6.10+4.81+4.81) = 4.81 / 15.71= 31%

Call size / (Pot size + call size)???

Equilab analysis of what you believe to be a liberal range of JJ, 22, AKs, AKo, Q10s, Q10o = 36% equity for you.

So this is a call if you like your range construction.

even if you wish to add in one single bluff let's say some weirdly played 910, your equity goes to 38.5%

So every one combo you can add into this range your equity jumps 2.5% because remember you have the 2nd nuts and you crush all ranges except for first nuts.

If villain overvalued AJ or KJ, equity shoots up very high.

^ Did you add weighting to them combo's of JJ, 22, AK though? AK very rare weighting, JJ very rare (both 3 bets pre), 22 rare (cause we expect a flop XR).

I know flopzilla has weighting. Obviously this is where speculation comes in somewhat too with weighting.

Imo, it's too far to assume the average 5nl reg is XR AJ, KJ OTT or ever bluffing here.

I did not weight them but I agree your speculation is fairly accurate.

16 combos of Q10 is not a joke...it's quite a lot of combos but then if we use a more conservative analysis it is an obvious fold.

You dont need weight we have 27.27% equity against AK JJ 22 QTo QTs,pokerlab have this stupid bug it dosnt remove combs automatically you must do it yourself