So villain is relatively unknown but some reg stats of 18/14.

I can either 4bet or call in this situation but I decide to call bc I don't really know villain very well. I think flop and turn are standard as I can put him on a range of TT+,AQ,AK, maybe some JT combos but I think that is unlikely with such tight stats. I think he is continuing on the flop w/ 100% of his range.

On turn however, I don't think he would be double barreling with TT,JJ which we would beat. He might continue w/ AQ, and for sure w/ QQ+. It is also possible that he has 99 as well. So w/ a range of 99,QQ+, AQ+ we have about 43% equity when facing turn bet when we only need 29%. However, if we decide to include JT then it drops to 26% equity. In the end I think calling is ok.

Now river is a tough spot as we made top 2pair and is probably the best possible card we could have gotten. When villain checks to us I think we have to think about 2 things.

1) Will villain call us with worse when we bet?
2) Will he fold anything better?

I think the answer for both these questions is no. There is a chance he will call w/ KQ,AQ but other than that he will fold everything else. And villain will never fold a set or straight so I think the right decision is to check back.

I would love to hear everyones thoughts and advice!





Merge - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 102.48 BB
MP: 106.12 BB
CO: 103.2 BB
BTN: 201.64 BB
SB: 171 BB
Hero (BB): 109.4 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K A

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 10 BB, Hero calls 9 BB, fold

Flop: (23 BB, 2 players) 9 Q K
SB bets 11.48 BB, Hero calls 11.48 BB

Turn: (45.96 BB, 2 players) 8
SB bets 30.64 BB, Hero calls 30.64 BB

River: (107.24 BB, 2 players) A
SB checks, Hero checks

I'd push the river. I'd expect him to jam better himself and he can have KQ.

I agree that villain would have played KQ this way but my question is would he have played it the same w/ QQ,KK,AA as well? When villain raises I perceive his range to be very strong w/a lot of premium hands. W/the limited amount of hands I observed him playing he was very passive and never 3bet.

When I cold called pre flop OP w/the original raiser still to act behind me my ranges appears to be a lot of AK,AQ,KJ,KQ hands. If that's my perceived range then I think villain is checking back the river here to try and induce a bet from me as I don't think he is ever c/f in this spot.

I should add that while villain was at the table I had a very aggressive table image. I think a few hands earlier I was in a similar situation against a different villain and bet when checked to on the river, and he c/r me and I folded.

he isn't going to check sets on the river. You are missing some serious value by not betting the A here. Either you thought you were good when you called, or you didn't. The A changes nothing.

Also, you should combo count, you might be surprised how many combos of AQ/KQ would make up his range on the river.

Honestly, I thought I was ahead until he checked back the river. I was planning on calling any bet on the river but when he checked I re-evaluated. It's true that I don't think it makes sense to check back a set here but I also don't think villain was that great of a player as he was normally pretty passive. I guess i just really believed that he would have only raised pre OP w/ QQ+ more than w/t hands like KQ,AQ. I do believe however that betting river against almost all opponents is a more +EV play however.


Is there a mathematical way to calculate the +-EV decision of jamming river vs checking back river?

For example if I jam and villain calls 100% of the time and say I win 80% of the time and lose 20% of the time compared to if I check back river and still win 80% and lose 20% from a theoretical perspective.

Yeah.

<check> = % we win * pot

<shove> = % folds * pot + % Calls ( win * (pot+bet) - lose*bet)

So if we check

we estimate we win 80% of the time.

107.24x0.8 = 85.792bb

However, we expect that he calls if we shove 100% of the time and win 80% of the time. If we shove for 60bb (estimation).


Since Villain folds zero % folds * pot = 0
0.8(107+60) - 0.2*60 = (0.8*167) - 12 = 121.6bb

We therefore shove on river.
Is this correct ??