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09-23-2014 , 01:10 PM

Coo-Coo-Kachoo

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 191

Merge - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $82.88 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
UTG: $54.92 (VPIP: 25.04, PFR: 19.71, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 632)
CO: $32.04 (VPIP: 20.90, PFR: 10.81, 3Bet Preflop: 4.49, Hands: 836)
BTN: $72.66 (VPIP: 23.93, PFR: 20.79, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 1,548)
Hero (SB): $50.25

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has Q

fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.25, fold

Flop: ($5.00, 3 players) Q

Hero bets $3.75, fold, BTN raises to $14.12, Hero calls $10.37

Turn: ($33.24, 2 players) 8

Hero checks, BTN bets $36.74,

Spoiler:

Villain is pretty aggressive postflop (AF of 6) but I just have a hard time believing he takes this line with a bluff. What do you think?

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09-23-2014 , 01:17 PM

PokerSparky

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 2,308

I can't see how you can fold.

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09-23-2014 , 02:21 PM

Coo-Coo-Kachoo

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 191

Maybe this was super nitty but I just think he's going to have every combo of TJ here that plays it this way as well as tons of flushes and 99. We're only beating Q9 and K9 which we block a lot of combos of and of course bluffs but based on his sizing and his timing I just couldnt give him credit for any bluffs. Plus any bluffs he might have are going to have plenty of equity here. That being said I still feel like a super nit and probably should have called.

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09-23-2014 , 02:32 PM

thetallpaul

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,497

Your also beating AsQx or AsKx or any PP with a spade. He may be calling top of range expecting you to squeeze if you have been doing that a lot or if the CO folds to much to 3bets and he wants to play a pot IP so hemay be more uncapped than it would appear.

Big raise and barrel is either one of those hands (pair and FD etc) trying to end it or small made flush worried about getting overflushed on turn or river.

Not sure if I could make the call in game as I'm on a huge downswing and am just always wrong at the moment but I think its justifiable.

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09-23-2014 , 02:46 PM

drakelol

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,149

Q9 and K9 shouldnt be raising here..
i think flop is close actually, standard villains wont bluff often here, with so many hands on villain you should have better reads though

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09-23-2014 , 04:04 PM

PokerSparky

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 2,308

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coo-Coo-Kachoo

Yeah, I can see where you could think you're beat here a lot. I guess I put villain on mostly pair plus FD with As more than the hands that beat you here. I could be convinced that stacking off here is spew I guess.

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09-23-2014 , 04:46 PM

Coo-Coo-Kachoo

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 191

Against most it's an easier fold for me really but this guy's pretty aggressive. My read on him is that he's very agro postflop but overfolds to 3bets pre. He will bet as a bluff with any draw what-so-ever but I hadn't seen him raise a bluff yet. Plus his timing was instant and his raise was pretty large. If he was gunna decide to bluff with a hand like AJ with the As I would think he'd give it a moment of consideration but I might be reading too much into timing tells. And more often than not when people bluff raise they tend toward a smaller sizing I think.

I think he most likely had JT without a spade. 99 would also make sense.

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09-23-2014 , 11:25 PM

K40cheddar

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,736

This looks like a lot of AsX type hands that are looking for fold equity if he's that aggressive postflop. Makes even more sense when he open shoves turn after the call. Probably just get it in. If he's got it well then that sucks.

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09-24-2014 , 03:40 AM

TWhelan

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 8,754

Fold

I wouldn't donkbet flop fwiw

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