Thoughts on river shove
11-02-2010
, 09:32 PM
MP: $6.47
CO: $14.89 - VPIP: 34, PFR: 20, 3B: 11, AF: 1.5, Hands: 64
Hero (BTN): $10.00
SB: $6.72
BB: $11.66
UTG: $33.09
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A
J
2 folds, CO raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.55) 4 4 J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40
Turn: ($1.35) T
(2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.90, CO calls $0.90
River: ($3.15) 9 (2 players)
CO bets $13.39, Hero folds
Should I have hero called?
This hand just happened and it got me thinking. His river shove is basically QK, 99, (maybe even JJ but less likely due to card removal) or complete air. Although, 99 is less likely since it's pretty obvious I have a J which means he should fold 99 on the turn. But maybe to him it's not that obvious, so let's keep it in his range. And if we include 99 then we have to include similar hands such as 55-88. These, plus possibly AK/AQ are his bluff catching range since his stats make him seem like quite a calling station. He also might decide to turn these hands into a bluff on the river.
Anyways, assuming all this is true, wouldn't it make more sense to make a more standard sized bet on the river (like 2/3-3/4 pot) with his value hands QK/99 since I'll probably pay him off with my AJ? Or even go for a check/raise if he thinks I'm capable of making thin river bets. And if he knows that I know that he can never get value with a >PSB, doesn't that mean that his shove on the river is always a bluff? Which means that I should have snap called? Anyone agree or am I just levelling myself?
CO: $14.89 - VPIP: 34, PFR: 20, 3B: 11, AF: 1.5, Hands: 64
Hero (BTN): $10.00
SB: $6.72
BB: $11.66
UTG: $33.09
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A
J2 folds, CO raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.55) 4
4 J (2 players)CO checks, Hero bets $0.40, CO calls $0.40
Turn: ($1.35) T
(2 players)CO checks, Hero bets $0.90, CO calls $0.90
River: ($3.15) 9
(2 players)CO bets $13.39, Hero folds
Should I have hero called?
This hand just happened and it got me thinking. His river shove is basically QK, 99, (maybe even JJ but less likely due to card removal) or complete air. Although, 99 is less likely since it's pretty obvious I have a J which means he should fold 99 on the turn. But maybe to him it's not that obvious, so let's keep it in his range. And if we include 99 then we have to include similar hands such as 55-88. These, plus possibly AK/AQ are his bluff catching range since his stats make him seem like quite a calling station. He also might decide to turn these hands into a bluff on the river.
Anyways, assuming all this is true, wouldn't it make more sense to make a more standard sized bet on the river (like 2/3-3/4 pot) with his value hands QK/99 since I'll probably pay him off with my AJ? Or even go for a check/raise if he thinks I'm capable of making thin river bets. And if he knows that I know that he can never get value with a >PSB, doesn't that mean that his shove on the river is always a bluff? Which means that I should have snap called? Anyone agree or am I just levelling myself?
