I've been going over this hand in my head the last couple of hours, would really like to hear some other's thoughts on this river fold. Thanks.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 41.24 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 65)
BB: 181.96 BB (VPIP: 24.39, PFR: 19.07, 3Bet Preflop: 6.99, Hands: 2,581)
UTG: 130.68 BB (VPIP: 40.63, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 35)
MP: 126.2 BB (VPIP: 28.44, PFR: 23.55, 3Bet Preflop: 6.43, Hands: 2,389)
CO: 247.04 BB (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 16.23, 3Bet Preflop: 6.19, Hands: 865)
Hero (BTN): 110.36 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 3 BB

Flop: (9.4 BB, 2 players) 6 9 9
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (9.4 BB, 2 players) 9
UTG checks, Hero bets 5 BB, UTG calls 5 BB

River: (19.4 BB, 2 players) 6
UTG checks, Hero bets 14.2 BB, UTG raises to 55.6 BB, fold

UTG wins 45.44 BB

0.72 BB was deducted from the pot for the jackpot.




So, I've been going back and forth over this hand.

On one hand I like my fold, because I just don't see people doing this with air very often. I don't think he's capable of doing this with 77, 88 etc. I think he 100% has quads or air. At 41/22, he has roughly 72 combo's that contain a 9. Another big part of my reasoning, although anecdotal, is that he went into the tank for a really long time before he raised. From this type of player, at these stakes, in my experience, that's almost always the nuts.

On the other hand, his stats suggest that he's probably a spewy player, which automatically makes me think i should call. And the board pairing on the river also makes me think I should have called. With me checking back the flop, I can see him thinking it's a split pot, so he has nothing to lose by bluff-raising. If the board doesn't pair on the river, I think I'm a lot happier with my fold.

I don't really know what to think about the sizing. It wasn't a shove. I really can't decide if that makes it more or less likely to be the nuts.

Any thoughts would be very much appreciated. Thanks.

Why are we folding there again vs the fish?

he can easily overvalue all full-houses

Suck it up and pay, scared money is bad.


Also your sample size is barely existent so whatever.

Unless he's limping KK, QQ, JJ or TT, his full-houses that beat the board are limited to exactly 77 and 88. That's only 12 combo's.

But, yeah, you're probably right. I probably have to sigh and call and make him show me the 9.

you do understand if fish V limps UTG his range is literally bananas there?
it can be 22+
it can be 56+

he's ''forced'' to bluff as he cannot win the pot often with all his banana holdings.

I'm calling there all day everyday. if he has me, whatever man, I'm 6x-ing his limps moving on forward

Makes sense. Thanks. I kinda figured calling is the right answer, I don't think I'm ever doing it with a smile on my face though.

You're overthinking. Bet bet bet big and call river.

Don't make massive folds vs people who don't know how to play poker.

Couldn't be me. Show me quads.

Pay his quads don't be a pussy.

Flop check is hideous. River is a level I think