A lot going on here starting with the donk lead - this is a donk lead spot right?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
BTN ($19.03) [VPIP: 17.5% | PFR: 11.3% | AGG: 27.3% | 3-Bet: 4.7% | Hands: 436]
SB ($37.81) [VPIP: 20.8% | PFR: 15.3% | AGG: 22.3% | 3-Bet: 7.6% | Hands: 1335]
BB ($7.38) [VPIP: 17.2% | PFR: 14.9% | AGG: 31.8% | 3-Bet: 7.8% | Hands: 137]
UTG ($11.40) [VPIP: 23.3% | PFR: 11.6% | AGG: 15.8% | 3-Bet: 9.5% | Hands: 43]
HJ ($14.48) [VPIP: 41.3% | PFR: 18.2% | AGG: 52.8% | 3-Bet: 3.3% | Hands: 147]
HERO ($29.98) [VPIP: 25.7% | PFR: 22% | AGG: 33.5% | 3-Bet: 11.1% | Hands: 173955]

Dealt to Hero: 5 6

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.28, BTN Raises To $0.76, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.48

Hero SPR on Flop: [10.94 effective]
Flop ($1.67): 3 7 8
HERO Bets $0.55 (Rem. Stack: 28.67), BTN Calls $0.55 (Rem. Stack: 17.72)

Turn ($2.77): 3 7 8 3
HERO Bets $2.07 (Rem. Stack: 26.60), BTN Calls $2.07 (Rem. Stack: 15.65)

River ($6.91): 3 7 8 3 A
HERO Bets $9 (Rem. Stack: 17.60)

I think this can be a donk lead spot considering a 4.7% 3-bettor won’t really have 77, 88 or 87s. But I think we should size up and do it somewhat sparingly (this hand is probably fine).

I don’t think river is a good spot to overbet. I think V gets here with a lot of stubborn AK and AQ that aren’t giving up now

What about 99-KK?

They always get to the river like this but AK/AQ will fold turn sometimes.

ez xr otf

What A-high hands do you overbet shove river with? I think V’s will level themselves into way more calls than they should.


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Yeah i think this is a better xr spot. When you lead, you make it easier for villain to call with medium strength and drawing hands.

fold pre

Also you generally want to overbet in spots where you could have, or have, made the (effective) nuts - a 9, 6, 4, h, or c, for example. That's impossible here unless you held exactly AA.

All my Axhh I think. Not only would my Ax block his AK but it also makes 99-KK more likely.

To the people saying XR the flop - how do you play turn and river?

No you want to overbet when you have more nutted hands than Villain does in his range.

We have all 33/88/77 and he doesn't. Just because he has AA and we don't doesn't mean he has more nutted hands than us.

A call seems fine pre-flop, especially as his 3b is smaller than usual. I think 4 betting is also an option, but being this deep a call becomes more attractive.

Flop I prefer to x/r since people usually cbet range in this spot, but I may be wrong+ donking is also a good option. (Donking is much better 190bb deep because your nut combos advantage becomes more important)

Turn and river seem fine, you don't rep too much, just 77, 66, 33, but I think he may be overfolding on this river with both fds missing and with the A being scary to his pps. This also seems like one of our best bluffs, unblocking the hands we want him to fold. We should probably just shove when we ob otr in theory, but if you think he folds the ~same hands vs 130% pot bet as vs an all in, than ok.

Okay looks like river is definitely an overbet spot bang bang. In game I got insta shipped on fml.



I should of shipped AI in game.

Yeah I think preflop is pretty standard. I'm curious since I don't have 200BB monker ranges how often this hand should be 4bet though.

I'm curious about which 65s hands are being overbet here (only about 20% are overbet; the rest are checked). I would think hh might be the last since it blocks missed front door flush draws.

You're saying villain won't 3b 33/88/77, but you'll call the 3b with them? I think that's backward. Imo villain's 3b range should be wider than your 3b calling range.

His 3bet % is 4.7%.

With a sample of 400 hands, and you don't know with certainty which 4.7% that is. It may include medium pocket pairs. You are assuming v chooses 3b hands in the same order you do.

You don’t need 10,000 hands before you can use people’s stats to make exploitative adjustments. With 400 hands, its much more likely than not that someone with a 4.7% 3-bet is a overly-nitty 3-bettor, and probably doesn’t 3-bet hands like 77 and 87s (which would be fairly loose)

Combine this with the fact that his PFR is 11%... and yeah we’re looking at a bit of a nit

It could. But I have more data points than you that it doesn't include them than that it does.

check raise flop

continue firing 1/2pot or pot on the turn

as played:

turn : I think this is a 2x spot. can you check ?

u lost a ton of equity with turn pairing, this is a good bluff hand and you can rep boats easily here

what is happening ott ? i see an 9% frequency play? River looks like almost a pure x with 65. are there diamond / spade combos in the 65 bluff part?

btw solver reps Ax with a block and uses the overbet only to rep boats.

This ... if it's to the 3b. Open is ok.

I think in my games [anonymous blitz 10nl] I think the XR-shove turn has more success than your line where these villains just blindly call off.

So the solver said shove river... its saying he is folding his over card combos ott so we're left with 99-KK? To your credit if I were villain I'd be thinking that you expect me to have the ace so therefore you're bombing for pure value... so I would be sigh folding 99-KK but if he shoved the river he's likely gonna call your shove (in this case) ? Also despite his stats he's obviously a fish who over calls with his Ax hands unless you ran into a nut job. Seems like the later... you were unlucky.

idk you lost me when you donked

I can agree with that.