No SB this hand

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($100) [VPIP: 28.8% | PFR: 24.5% | AGG: 37.9% | Flop Agg: 45% | Turn Agg: 33.5% | River Agg: 36.2% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | 4-Bet: 14.5% | Cold Call: 8.3% | Hands: 159900]
UTG ($95) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 25.7% | AGG: 15% | Hands: 72]
HJ ($100) [VPIP: 29.9% | PFR: 24.7% | AGG: 40.9% | Hands: 77]
CO ($100) [VPIP: 32.1% | PFR: 32.1% | AGG: 66.7% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3-Bet: 9.1% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 29]
BTN ($130.66) [VPIP: 31.5% | PFR: 24.7% | AGG: 28% | Hands: 90]

Dealt to Hero: K 2

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $2.50, BTN Folds, HERO Calls $1.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [19.5 effective]
Flop ($5): K 3 J
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.57 (Rem. Stack: $95.93), HERO Calls $1.57 (Rem. Stack: $95.93)

Turn ($8.14): K 3 J 7
HERO Checks, CO Bets $12 (Rem. Stack: $83.93), HERO Calls $12 (Rem. Stack: $83.93)

River ($32.14): K 3 J 7 9
HERO Checks, CO Bets $50.34 (Rem. Stack: $33.59), HERO ?

Is there a region of his range that really wants to bet 150% OTR? Wouldn't that region be better off jamming or going down to 75-100%?

I imagine the 33-150-150 line is pretty overbluffed in general, but definitely more so as BTN as opposed to CO I would think

Seems like a reasonable calling hand if we’re assuming villain is bluffing more than equilibrium

So this is saying in 90 hands he never once called pre, alway raised or reraised. And every time he has got to the turn and river he always bet/raised, and never checked or folded?

I think it's a purely expoitative call then? Unless you have some read that he is strong from that sizing.

Good point, I think the interesting thing is that this board is so good for CO as opposed to other positions because it's the first position that has T8s and QTo full frequency.

I would be leaning towards fold. This hand should be the bottom of our turn calling range and then I feel like it's a fold on that river card and betsize

This feels so bluff heavy and a reg has almost endless bluffs on this board. But every time i call one of these when its vs overbet its always nutted so i want to say that in general the overbet is not used as much as a bluff. Interested to know results.

Feels greedy

tbh i think this particular runout gets overbluffed if they can bluff. i just dont think they check enough with AT / AQ anywhere. triple and overbet is scary though

I'm pretty sure this is an easy fold.

These responses are interesting, keep them coming. I'll reveal results tomorrow.

All top pairs seem pretty indifferent here, so just call with a mix of hands that gets you to the right MDF. I would probably pure fold this combo, and maybe start my calling range around K8 or KT. I'm not trying to read too much into his line and sizings, but if you twisted my arm I'd say it leans bluffy. Any time a guy bets an amount that leaves money behind where they could've just as easily jammed, I tend to think somethings up, although this tell is much stronger live and in tournaments. in cash games sometimes guys just button click.

I guess more thin value in this line and more bluffs in jam.

Doubt there's much in it but good calling hands will have blocking properties (hence the quote post, these would be good ones) not sure you want to call off all Kx and the 2 does nothing for you. There are a million bluffs although after the turn you are getting towards the bottom of your remaining range. Lean fold with this specific hand but definitely calling off a lot of Kings

Fold we dont want the 2 block some of villains bluffs

It's easy for villain to be over bluffing with all of those potential gutters. Still, I'd rather have A3s or AJ so folding here.

Fold. River is really bad card for us and they just dont bluff too much in this line

Okay thank you everyone for the responses. I don't think this spot is understood very well, it is very nuanced based on board texture/sizing/formation. Overbet sizing is very important here, not all river overbets are equal.

Results

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($100) [VPIP: 28.8% | PFR: 24.5% | AGG: 37.9% | Flop Agg: 45% | Turn Agg: 33.5% | River Agg: 36.2% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | 4-Bet: 14.5% | Cold Call: 8.3% | Hands: 160288]
UTG ($95) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 25.7% | AGG: 15% | Hands: 72]
HJ ($100) [VPIP: 29.9% | PFR: 24.7% | AGG: 40.9% | Hands: 77]
CO ($100) [VPIP: 32.1% | PFR: 32.1% | AGG: 66.7% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3-Bet: 9.1% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 29]
BTN ($130.66) [VPIP: 31.5% | PFR: 24.7% | AGG: 28% | Hands: 90]

Dealt to Hero: K 2

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $2.50, BTN Folds, HERO Calls $1.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [19.5 effective]
Flop ($5): K 3 J
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.57 (Rem. Stack: $95.93), HERO Calls $1.57 (Rem. Stack: $95.93)

Turn ($8.14): K 3 J 7
HERO Checks, CO Bets $12 (Rem. Stack: $83.93), HERO Calls $12 (Rem. Stack: $83.93)

River ($32.14): K 3 J 7 9
HERO Checks, CO Bets $50.34 (Rem. Stack: $33.59), HERO Calls $50.34 (Rem. Stack: $33.59)

I think u make the commitment on turn to call any river bricks and that's enough stationing. Unless u think there's something to read into, like bet size or timing.

I would call bcuz of sizing but it's not thrilling and I still expect to lose most of the time

EDIT: I wrote before you posted results. Yes, the main reason for me is the exact overbet sizing

AJ A3 are terrible calls, K2 is a lot better

i think his turn overbet makes some sense. Is his river bet good? he blocks KQ

I hate to be results oriented, but again, in 90 hands with those stats, especially the 100% turn and 100% river aggression, correct me if I am wrong, but this seems like a special villain. If he is overbluffing, our hand strength and blockers don't really matter that much, our call is just going to be +EV.

From a theoretical standpoint, K2 is not a terrible hand to call with. The 2h unblocks bluffs because there is no backdoor heart draw on the flop and you unblock some bluffs like AQ, AT. But you don't block QT or T8 which get there. You will have so many kings with weak kicker here that at equilibrium you will have to mix.

But going to his stats, when he could easily have any AQ, AT, backdoor spades, and probably more, and you only have to be good 38% of the time, I think you should just call, even though he can have a ton of two pair, sets, straights also.

It's 29 hands though

Yeah this exactly. It's proven in MDA over large samples.

I've noticed you've said before that this forum has a lot of noise, this thread might take the cake.

Nice call. Is it because he elects to go soooo big?