Take him to value town on the river? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Take him to value town on the river?

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02-09-2009 , 12:15 PM

allwind

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 777

No reads available.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) SB ($120)
BB ($376)
UTG ($570)
CO ($244)
Hero ($572)

Dealt to Hero A

fold, CO calls $4, Hero raises to $18, fold, BB calls $14, fold,

FLOP ($42) 3

check, Hero bets $20, BB calls $20,

TURN ($82) 3

check, Hero bets $40, BB calls $40,

RIVER ($162) 3

check, Hero ?

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02-09-2009 , 12:33 PM

Rococo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 20,873

I would check the river here. I bet that he shows up with a rivered two pair more often than he calls it off with worse.

Your bet sizing on the flop and the turn is absolutely wtf.

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02-09-2009 , 12:39 PM

optionsguy

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,123

$115

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02-09-2009 , 12:41 PM

RollinHand

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 9,382

Bet 30+ on the flop. Don't mind the small turn bet. I would bet/fold 100 on the river.

Board: 3h Qh 6c 9h Tc

Wins Ties Equity
55.17% 10.34% 65.52% ( AsQc )
24.14% 10.34% 34.48% ( QT,QJs,KQ,AQ,JJ,AhJh )

I don't think you'll see QT all that often.

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02-09-2009 , 02:05 PM

frtz

grinder

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 474

b/f especially given your betsizing so far.
30 / 80 / check behind woulda been fine as well

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02-10-2009 , 08:09 AM

allwind

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 777

I bet somewhere between ½ to full pot. He called and showed KK. After that he complete owned me the rest of the session. He turned out to be a 80/20. Quite rare to see those guys. Because of the ½pot, my bets seem kind of stealy. If having bet more I would be inclined to check behind. But with those small bet sizes earlier in the hand, I believe it is better to bet.

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02-10-2009 , 08:09 AM

allwind

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 777

My standard is to bet more on the flop. This was a variation play.

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02-10-2009 , 08:22 AM

JFsports

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 3,531

You don't exactly have no reads. He didn't top up his stack to 100BBs, and he called an iso-raise OOP rather than 3-betting. Both of those indicate fish. So until proven otherwise, I'm taking a line that's best against a fish, and that's betting close to pot size on flop and turn

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02-10-2009 , 11:10 AM

Rococo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 20,873

Quote:

Originally Posted by allwind

My standard is to bet more on the flop. This was a variation play.

For what purpose? I can't imagine any hand that I would want to bet 1/2 pot with here.

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02-10-2009 , 02:56 PM

#10

allwind

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 777

Quote:

Originally Posted by JFsports

The full stack thing. He might have lost the last hand and did not get to reload yet. So I dont buy this.

He did not 3bet PF. This could be a read. For this reason I think on the flop we beat top pair, top kicker, unless he has a set which is not top set (hindsight and I was wrong). I think the read of how he plays at later streets is much more important. If he has a flush, how would he play it?

And last but not least. When we see his hand and later his stats. How should we adjust our metagame and how should we adjust?

And thanks for an intersting comment.

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02-10-2009 , 02:59 PM

#11

allwind

adept

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 777

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rococo

For what purpose? I can't imagine any hand that I would want to bet 1/2 pot with here.

The word "always". Is that good or bad for poker? I bet ½pot or near ½pot with a lot of trash. So naturally, I must mix it up sometimes with hands with SD value. I hope this answered your question.

(In retrospect). I am not sure this is the way to get the most value. It sure gets me a lot of pots on the flop. I am happy with this. What is the alternative?

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02-10-2009 , 03:06 PM

#12

JFsports

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 3,531

Quote:

Originally Posted by allwind

The full stack thing. He might have lost the last hand and did not get to reload yet. So I dont buy this.

well you were at the table so you should know

Some sites have auto-reload options though. Anyway I think you need a read to deviate from betting strongly on flop and turn and not vice versa in this hand. Basically in this hand you have the nuts, so bet it like that until something happens which will make you re-evaluate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by allwind

He did not 3bet PF. This could be a read. For this reason I think on the flop we beat top pair, top kicker, unless he has a set which is not top set (hindsight and I was wrong). I think the read of how he plays at later streets is much more important. If he has a flush, how would he play it?

And last but not least. When we see his hand and later his stats. How should we adjust our metagame and how should we adjust?

And thanks for an intersting comment.

In terms of adjusting when you know his stats - you are up against a gigantic fish, so value bet a ton (think of the worst hand you should value bet, and then value bet even worse hands than that) and try to play every button and CO, because you have position on him in those hands.

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02-10-2009 , 05:17 PM

#13

IV.Geoffrey

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,291

b/f

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02-10-2009 , 08:29 PM

#14

Rococo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 20,873

Quote:

Originally Posted by allwind

Mixing it up doesn't justify any kind of play. To take an extreme example, we never bet 1/4 pot or 2x pot on this flop to "vary" our play. First, in a vacuum, such a bet does not make sense with any legitimate hand in our range. In effect, we are repping nothing. Second, the play is too suboptimal for you to recover the lost profit through any benefit you may gain from varying your play.

I believe that betting half pot here is a less extreme example of the same situation.

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02-10-2009 , 11:02 PM

#15

klumpskaft

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,341

he paying u off here seems pretty unrealistic given ur line id check it back and if im betting its probably not to give him a free showdown more than for value and obv fold to ch/r

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