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Surviving a Downswing Surviving a Downswing

07-02-2010 , 11:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SammyG-SD
Currently I am in stretch of 50K hands where my biggest losers are KK and flopped sets, I am down 12BI total but are down 20BI just on those situations.
So it's not just me then? Whew.

It's like every day I spend an hour or two watching videos and feel really pumped up for my session and then within 15 minutes I'll be down two buyins wonder how the hell I keep getting all-in with the nuts and am outflopped time and time again. I need to verify with Poker Tracker but I'm pretty sure that most of my largest pots lost last month was in hands where I flopped a set verses the nut straight or the villian caught runner runner to outdraw me. I'm not sure of the last time I filled up to a boat either. Oh wait, that was today when the villian flopped top set on AJ9 and I sit there with 99 on a final board of AJ9JK wondering what the hell happened and how did it happen AGAIN.

Somehow I'm not tilting. I think it's experience telling me to stick it out and my next heater will be around the corner.

Great thread guys, just what I needed.
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07-02-2010 , 11:33 PM
amazing OP, thanks
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07-03-2010 , 12:33 AM
interesting bump.
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07-30-2010 , 12:36 PM
Wanted to add this about the psychologies of being risk adverse.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Cangurino
Cliff notes: People avoid variance when evaluating possible gains, but they embrace variance when evaluating possible losses, basically doing anything for a chance to avoid a loss. The same phenomenon has been seen in monkeys who were introduced to a simple financial system. So this is some innate defect of ours.

The human experiment was twofold: First a test person is given $1000. Then he is given the choice of either getting an additional $500, or flipping a coin for a 50% chance of getting an additional $1000. Most subjects played it safe. In another part of the experiment the test person was given $2000, and then given the choice of either giving back $500, or flipping a coin for a 50% chance of losing $1000. Here most people gambled.

Monkeys, when faced with an equivalent decision, acted the same way.

This sort of explains the psychological side of downswings. When losing we tend to take bigger risks and possibly -EV decisions in order to get even. The experiment shows that this behaviour is instinctive and hence difficult to overcome.

One approach would be to lose track of your bankroll so you don't know when you're in a downswing. However you'd have to somehow control your risk of ruin.
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08-05-2010 , 03:37 PM
Posting this for my latest Downswing I just exited.


Quote:
Originally Posted by SammyG-SD
apologies for the ramblings about my latest wow is me, but it helps if I write it down.

I have come to the realization, that yeah it really sucks to have so many coolers and bad beats in such a short amount of time, in reality over my last 200K hands its not super bad. I just happen to go 150K hands of things running as expected, in fact I actually had a below expected number of bad beats (i.e. I was winning 90% of my AA vs KK).

But I did just spend 12 hours of reviewing every single one of my hands over that bad stretch. In reality I got away from focusing on ranges, and starting ho-huming over what peopel actually had and was like "I am overplaying this TPTK hand, here because some idiot just called my OESD FD CRAI with an underpair and it held....Yeah, not good poker. I also started to super polarize my villains continuation ranges, and stop focusing on squeaking out a few extra BB on hands where they may have 2nd pair and I have TPBK but what really got me was this.

During my good run, my strength of my play was really using backside aggression and exploiting board textures/positions vs. default lines of good regs. Yeah, you are taking a typical Value line or double barrel, but that turn card sucks and you are going to hate this raise. Or there is no way I can rep a decent hand here, even if this is the perfect guy to float. Basically I was using all of the factors villain's range, position, board textures, betting patterns to make decisions of value plays and bluffs. I basically would only dabble in the preflop/flop drama to keep me a little tricky, but my real strength was turn/river play. Overall, I was still mostly Value, with some bluffs in good spots, but mostly I was maximizing my lines. Good results, 6BB/100 over 150K hands.

Then the bad-beats happened, and I lossed it. I basically was trying to rush chips into the middle, and started to play a 2 street game with 100bb even 600bb. Stuff would happen and I thought if I could turn my aggression up early I could get myself out of this downswing.

FOOLS GOLD.

Why, because yeah you get some good quick profits from a few light 4bets, may even get lucky and get chips in the middle PF with AA. But in reality, most of the time you are going to force your villain to be pot committed and you are going to lose your stack.

Losing several times with quads may have been a catalyst for losing money, but in reality I should of been a slight winner over those stretch of hands.
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09-06-2010 , 12:36 AM
seems like when I am winning, poker seems simple, when I am losing I feel like the game is super complex
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09-06-2010 , 01:27 AM
Pokers is hard.
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08-11-2011 , 12:39 AM
Hi. I'm resurrecting this thread because I just lost the entirety of my (rather small) bankroll in 2 days at the lowest stakes after having my best single day of play the day before. Talk about tilting. Unfortunately, I came to this thread somewhat too late for it to do any good in this instance, but I'm sure it will help going forward. Thanks for the valuable info. I'm going to take some time off, do some reading and some analysis, and redeposit and try again.
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08-11-2011 , 12:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebound
Hi. I'm resurrecting this thread because I just lost the entirety of my (rather small) bankroll in 2 days at the lowest stakes after having my best single day of play the day before. Talk about tilting. Unfortunately, I came to this thread somewhat too late for it to do any good in this instance, but I'm sure it will help going forward. Thanks for the valuable info. I'm going to take some time off, do some reading and some analysis, and redeposit and try again.
Downswings have been some of the most profitable things that have happened to me. Good luck.
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08-11-2011 , 12:43 AM
"1) Game select. No shame in playing for easy money."

Perhaps not the best thread for this question, but can you offer any advice for doing this?
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08-11-2011 , 12:44 AM
^^ ddawd i wont lie if downswings could like come once a week where i magically lose 5-10 buy ins in 1 dramatic session but win the rest i would love it cause it always forces me to revamp my game & focus more on things i do incorrectly or need to pay attention to... even when those things were not the only 100% reason for the negative swing in your graph

it sucks though however when your a breakeven reg(myself) & experience these downward spirals just as much as your winning sessions ...
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08-11-2011 , 12:45 AM
There's a COTW on game selection.
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08-11-2011 , 01:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exothermic
^^ ddawd i wont lie if downswings could like come once a week where i magically lose 5-10 buy ins in 1 dramatic session but win the rest i would love it cause it always forces me to revamp my game & focus more on things i do incorrectly or need to pay attention to... even when those things were not the only 100% reason for the negative swing in your graph

it sucks though however when your a breakeven reg(myself) & experience these downward spirals just as much as your winning sessions ...
yeah, it was probably my third fail at 50NLFR that really got me to completely overhaul my game. I could get up to that point by table selecting like crazy and bleeding the total fish and avoiding the regs and getting lucky, but that could only make me a losing 50NL player. I just gave up on online poker for a while and would just watch and read a lot. Then I started reading some stuff which just made everything click. I completely rebooted my style of play.

As for the big losses, you might be surprised, but your big losses aren't likely due to big mistakes. Unless you are doing something ******ed like 3bet shoving 27o over a 3/3 UTG open. A lot of those pots, you are probably only making like a 20bb mistake, not a 100bb mistake if even that. But so many people are petrified with being on the bad end of even a medium pot without the best hand that they are just making tons and tons of mistakes.

I know everyone says that you should focus on your biggest losses in session review. I think you should, but you'll probably find your mistakes in those pots are relatively small. That you're not going to be making any glaring mistakes.

My advice, 1) work on your hand reading a lot. Just go through every hand that goes to showdown and replay them and work on ranging.
2) think about your own hands as a range. Most players think about their hand as a single hand rather than as a part of a range. Just like the way you think about what cards your opponents could have, you need to think about what cards you would have in any given situation and think about how your particular hand fits into that range.

Both of these things makes playing effectively much much easier. They take practice and you will screw up a lot at first, but be patient. I think you'll pick it up faster than you realize.
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02-06-2012 , 12:57 PM
bump
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