pele was correct about your blinds--your SB loss rate is .02 higher than what I normally like to see a player sustain, and your BB loss rate is the max I am willing to see people sustain. Your stats are the reason why--if you don't get these lower, you end up being a winning player, but just barely, who loses back most of his winnings to the blinds. You are winning .41 ptbb/orbit in the other 7 positions, and then losing back .35 of it when you post the blinds.

So definitely work on winning back maybe .05ptbb more per orbit. That really means winning an additional 1 or 2 pots from the blinds per 100 hands.

The other problems I saw:

You limp too much in early position. These are usually -EV, especially at $100 and $200, where you are basically playing your hand face up when you limp/call in EP. Better to start folding small pockets from EP. This change should change your vpip/pfr from 15/10 to 14/11 or 13/11; don't be surprised by this change if you decide to follow this advice.

Your button win rate is too low. Your vpip, and, therefore, your ATS, look to be on the low side of ok. The problem here is with your post flop play--it looks like you are not minimizing your loss and maximizing your wins on average on the button.

Win rate problems indicate a post flop leak, so there is really not much I can help you with from these stats. All I can say is to go back through your button hands. Look for hands you won that you checked on the river--ask yourself, "could I have bet this river for value?" You had a reason for checking; maybe a draw got there or whatever. Just review these hands and look for missed value. Similarly, look at the hands you lost and ask yourself whether you should have lost less. This is a lot of hard work, but there is no choice if you want to improve your button win rate.

To tell you what you are aiming for--solid TAgs often, maybe even usually have a win rate that is at least double, or even triple yours. You are losing A LOT of value on your button.

The combination of your went to showdown (22%) and your W$@SD (50.something%) is far too low. For a player seeing as few showdowns as you are, the W$SD% is more usually 53 or 54%. This indicates a propensity for weak/tight post flop play. Specifically, I believe you need to take a net of maybe 1 or 2 more hands per 100 to showdown. This doesn't sound like a lot, but when you consider that you only vpip 15% of the time, it starts to look like a huge change in your game.

Your aggression numbers are good, except maybe the river, which is one of the reasons I suspect your WTSD is low. With a river AF >2, I begin to suspect that you are folding to some river bets that you should call. Remember, a river call needs to be evaluated by pot odds, not by whether you think you are ahead in this hand. if the villain makes a pot sized bet on the river (which rarely happens) it is (marginally) profitable to call even if you think you will lose 49% of the time. But with a WTSD of 22% and a W$@SD of 50%, you are both getting to showdown 2nd best too much, and you are folding the best hand too much. Again, this means that you should play maybe 1 or 2 hands per 100 differently; don't all of a sudden turn into a river station and look everybody up. But these are typically medium to large pots, so losing a little less in one and winning another will make a huge change in your results. study your hand histories and look for possible mistakes of this sort.

If you don't have it, you really need to download the free version of PokerEV and use its filtering capabilities to evaluate your river play.

It looks like you play the hijack really well.

Your EP win rates are pretty good; other than not limping, I don't think you need to change anything there.

One sort of hidden possibility I want you to look into. As I said, your post flop play indicates a bit of a propensity to fold to any aggression. Your AF numbers look good, but don't make sense with your W$@SD or your W$WSF%, both of which are low. If I am correct about this, then one possible hidden leak you should look for is your play with suited connectors. I would not be at all surprised to see that you are losing money in pots where you called a raise or limped behind with suited connectors. If this is the case, then you need to reevaluate the way you are playing them. Since you should have position in these hands, you need to be looking to steal an occasional pot when you miss the flop. If you are +EV in this spot, disregard this paragraph, but, tbh, I would be a little surprised if you are +EV in that situation. Another possibility that suggests itself from your aggression factor is that you are playing suited connectors too aggressively postflop, and losing more, on average, than you might otherwise have to. So just study these hands in PokerEV and see what turns up.

That's about all I can think to say at the moment in terms of potential leaks, but I have two other points:

1. The quality of your play has certainly changed over these 160k hands. If you want to post your last 50,000 hands or so and get me to look at those, I'd be happy to do so.

2. The fact that you have played so many different levels complicates my analysis. I'd really like to see your stats from what you consider to be your home level. $50, $100 and $200 play very differently from one another in some ways.

Oh and 3.--Don't read anything into the fact that you have won at $100 and $200 but lost at $50; it could mean almost anything or it could mean nothing at all.

thanks for the look mpethy, I've been working on trying to spew less from the blinds. If I can pad my bankroll this month I will definitely be looking into 'leakfinder' with you and split.

stop tilting.

ship the $85 at your convenience.

nm, gotta get a good size

try this again in a bit

ok...flame away... what holes do you see? i know theres tons

So I took my own advice in bold above.. and success. Even if it's just 28K hands, it's something to work with.

Stats:


Overall:


Blinds Only:


Biggest changes that I did was to lower my steal back down and let the others stealers have their way more often. Lower my aggression on flop and turn. Lower my flop and turn cbets slightly. Then basically nit it up playing 16 tables.

I know my red line kills me, but I really wanted to straighten out my blue line first of all. Not trying to steal a lot of pots keeps me out of marginal situations that was ultimately killing my blue line without improving my red. My attempt to steal was only at 29 before I retooled my game, and some people say that it's better to even have it high than that! I guess I wasn't picking the right spots or something. But I'm definitely doing better in the blinds with less aggression. Something that isn't evident here is my post-flop play. I've definitely made some changes to the way I play certain hands that can't really be explained with stats, so I'm sure that may have something to do with my improved win rate.

Just a quick update for anyone that may be in a similar spot and looking for some help.

LOL, I LOVE your stats. Back in '06 when I was playing 6 max I played as nitty as you do and did quite well.

The thing that surprises me is that you are crushing the game with those stats currently.

If you post these in the 6 max forum, they are going to tell you that you are nitty and you need to open up a bit more--i think solid TAg in 6 max is considered 23/18 or so??? Somewhere in that range.

My opinion, though, is if it isn't broke, don't fix it. Keep playing the way you are playing and if your win rate stays the same, you'll be moving up in a hurry (but you probably ill have to open up to beat $100 6 max).

If your win rate dips significantly, that'd be evidence that you have been on a heater and you may have to open up some.

but you could easily start stealing more--most FR TAgs are stealing more than you are at 6 max.

idk how much use this sample is, but here goes:







The PL stats are a bit outdated, the NL stats are a bit more representative of my current game.

Stats are less nitty than last time I posted them, but my winrate is basically nonexistent, any glaring leaks? Still not that comfortable with my blind play fwiw, although I resteal a bit more often now.

Thanks

Happy, could you post your 'Folded SB to steal' and 'Folded BB to steal'? I have the impression that at least one leak of you is due to that.

SB 90%
BB 87%

Ill agree these are nitty stats. im a big table selection junkie as well, if i dont find good tables...i just wont play.

the 50PL stats are a bit wonky imo, its such a small sample, i wouldnt consider them accurate.

Im not happy with how tight i play to be honest, ive been trying to open up, but at this level in this game, this is about as loose as i can be and be as profitable as i have been, while keeping my aggression level as high as possible. the players in this game are bad for the most part and playing a tighter style still rakes in the money.

I figured my blind folding was a bit high, and my sb completion/playing from the sb was a bit high as well.

I think you could benefit from loosening up a bit. The best way to start loosening up is in position. Just do this: look in PokerStove at what the top 50% hands are. Fiddle around with those--add some suited two gappers, drop K3o or whatever, and then spend a few thousand hands raising first in with those hands from either the cut off or the button. see how it goes, and whether you can handle the postflop play with that type of trash. If it goes well, you have loosened up quite a bit in LP; if it doesn't go well, drop ost of them and study post flop play extensively. You'll get it eventually.

As for your completion rates and blind play: I didn't even look at them. I looked at your loss rates, which are excellent, and decided "well, whatever he is doing is working for him."

Don't fall into the trap of doing what you think you "should" be doing when what you are doing is working so well. 99% of players lose money from the blinds, so the fact that you are losing $$ in the blinds is standard. But you are losing way less than is usual even in 6 max. So your blind play is not a leak--it is working VERY well for you.

If you are really dying to open up, the other stat I saw that left you room for opening up is your 3 bet stats, which were on the low end even for a good FR player. This is a high risk way or opening up, though, and I wouldn't recommend it until you are comfortable with your hand reading skills. So start with the stealing and if that goes well, start 3 betting a bit lighter.

Happy, Digga is right that your leak is in the blinds--you are losing everything you post--you are not winning back any of it. This is a GIANT leak.

Change nothing else in your game for the time being, and focus exclusively on losing less in the blinds. How many tables are you playing?

(Also, you've run bad in this sample to the tune of about 6 buy ins, so there is that, too--but it is nothing like your leak from the blinds).

Thanks for the feedback mpethy/digga!

What kinda stats are normal-ish for fold BB and SB / restealing / loss rates?

Hi!

I started out the year taking a break from 6max and trying out some fullring. I really like it so far, runing a bit hot i guess

Could someone be so kind and take a look into my stats? I played 23k hands sofar, started out playing 9 tables and now i play like 14-16 stacked.

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/1777/fullringbw9.png

http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/2...llring2gf3.png

My biggest question is if i am playing to tightly playing 12/8 14-16 tabling.

Also I would like to know if NL50 is much tougher and which adjustments i would have to make when i move up.

What kind of winrate could a good nl25 player expect in the long run? 6ptbb should be pretty substainable or not?

Thanks a lot!

Your stats are very similar to mine except it looks like you're running pretty hot. 59% W$SD is high and is sometimes indicative of someone who doesn't get to SD often enough. But I don't think this is the case with you. I assumed that you were on the aggressive side b/c your W$WSF is high in a couple of spots as is your W/R. But you're not overly aggressive so it looks like you're just on a bit of a heater.

VPIP is a question of style. Some will say that you need to run 15+ but I don't like that view. Play the style that you're comfortable with. If you feel that you're losing value in spots work on upping your VPIP in late position (your 'steal %' has room to increase for sure).

I like to think of the different levels as a spectrum. Each level is a little harder than the previous one but you shouldn't notice a dramatic change. 50NL is a little tighter, a little more aggressive and the recreational players are a little better than their counterparts at 25NL. When you decide to take shots play your normal game and you should do fine.

The emphasis on W/R, imo, is overblown. It's greatly affected in the shortterm by luck and circumstance and represents how you played in the past, not how you're playing now. Focus on making good decisions at the tables and let your W/R sort itself out.

It looks like you're doing very well, keep up the good work and I'm sure you'll be taking my money in no time.

As a starting point you should be aiming to win back half what you are losing. this comes out to about -0.22 ptbb/hand in the bb and -0.12ptbb.hand in the small blind.

The easiest way to get there is to play pretty tight--fold to a steal about 855 of the time in the bb and about 88-90% of the time in the sb.

make sure your ATS in the SB is >35%

Don't resteal light, just value 3 bet with your best hands AQ+, 99+

YOU ARE THE MAN, thanks alot for the analysis. I "fixed" the EP limping with small pairs a month or two ago and think it has been helpful. I also find the call button a bit more now on the river and am seeing some positive results so far.

Thanks again!

hello

2008 was good for me. i began to play with PT3 at october 1st. since then (up to dec 31st) i managed 67 days played, 253,260 hands played with daily average of $88 at NL20.
i used to be too passive.
as this year started i decided to play more aggro, to play shorthanded mostly and these below are my stats of my first 3 days played (actually i played today 7.5h with $330 profit but can't open PT3 for some reason to import it. as soon i fix that i'll post it back):








my leaks?


p.s.
the only reason i didn't moved up in limits (over last 3 months) is because poker is my only source of income (i live alone in my own apartment) and i had to cash out 90% of my winnings every month.
now i know that i'm crushing those micro limits and i live of bonuses (atm i'm clearing $3000 and the avg. monthly salary in my country is $700 so i can live 2.5 months with that bonus and after that comes another and so on...) so i won't cash out anything except that bonus and cashback.

p.p.s.
thanx for every quality reply.

Regarding Position 2-7 you need a much higher number of hands (at least 1000 per position).

What I noticed is that you win a lot in LP and in the BB. You are positive in the BB despite the fact that you post. This is incredible! What is the reason for the success?

Leaks: Your VPIP in the SB is very high compared to all other positions. Your win rate (or better lost rate) of -0.03BB is still very good but could be better if you get your VPIP somewhat lower.

Regards, Digga

Hello! I just wanted to get some analysis on my first 16k (almost) hands or so of the new year! Haven't played in a few months....but started back up Jan 2nd.

Position Stats



Player Summary



Full Graph



I know I need to work on my Non-showdown winnings...but it's ridiculously hard at 10NL. I'll be moving up to 25NL very shortly...assuming there is no CRITICAL leaks I need to work on for a couple weeks. MY goal is normally to keep the non-showdown winnings breakeven....but as you can tell when I had that big downswing, I started to tilt a bit and spew even more chips on preflop trying to recover and ended up folding the hands to make it that much worse. It's leveled off some...so I'm a bit happier right now.

Any guidance or ideas? I'm going to be paying *split* (assuming he wants to of course) soon for a "leakfinder" session soon as well before I make the move to 25NL. Currently $470 or so on my online bankroll.

Thanks for hte help folks! I hope to be a functioning and helpful member of the uNL FR forum soon!

I was going to reply, but then I saw this. So I'll just wait and do it all at once rather than provide my usual teaser ITT, lololol.

Just a quick question about WTSD% and W$SD%. After a small sample both of these stats are high, however turn and river aggression are both above 2.5



What else can contribute to high WTSD% and W$SD%, other than playing with calling stations? Im not too familiar with these stats yet, so I dont know if im missing something, or if i should just be happy that my turn and river bets are getting called so often when im ahead.

Small sample so most likely you were on a heater IMO.

trying out some new stuff... look good? All 24 tabling 50nl w/ maybe a few hands of HU in there.