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State of HU Poker (LC) State of HU Poker (LC)

10-28-2008 , 01:21 PM
Haha that 85 hand is behind horrendous
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10-28-2008 , 01:28 PM
I'm not too worried. The players seem to get worse and worse everyday imo. if all else fails, tournies will always be full of fish.
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10-28-2008 , 01:58 PM
Like Mike McDermott says: "Always have outs." That's the #1 rule of money/poker. If you rely on poker for a living, have a backup plan if things go sour. But it won't happen overnight, so if you're doing well now then don't expect that next month you'll be unable to make a dime.

Hopefully congress just repeals the UIGEA. Really that's all it would take for a new "poker boom" because it's such a pain in the ass to get money on the sites now. Although e-checks aren't bad.
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10-28-2008 , 02:21 PM
Drop down and play regs, and in a relative sense the games will not be "dead". The games are getting tougher and if you don't improve you will need to drop down eventually. This is the best way to get better and get hands in.
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10-28-2008 , 02:59 PM
I mean, the fish are just as bad as ever; it's just that there are so many less fish relative to the sharks. Posting hands that show bad they are is just showing what the old days were like except there were ten times as many.
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10-28-2008 , 06:09 PM
Cftw,

I know you say the UIGEA doesn't have a huge effect on it, but do you play live often?

i personally don't, but i know that in my experience, every time someone asks me what i do for a living the conversation goes almost unequivocally as follows (with the occasional online poker is rigged alternate ending):

Live Donk: What do you do for a living?

Me: I'm a pro poker player

Live Donk: Oh so you live here (vegas?)

Me: Nah I play online mostly

Live donk: Oh, you make good money doing that?

Me: Yeah pretty good i'm not complaining

Live Donk: I've tried to play online a bunch of times, i can never get money in


seems to me that most of the donks can't figure out how to get their money on the sites and there'd be a lot more players if it was more accessible.

I do agree though fwiw, that the games have a definite shelf life of 5-10 years at most, it's a simple matter of people a) losing interest in poker, and gaining interest in whatever the next fad is, and b) people who are interested playing and realizing that they lost money very quickly playing NLHE with people who play for a living
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10-28-2008 , 06:41 PM
My thoughts pretty much mirror what ctfw said in op but the msnl hu games really havent been great the last few months, sunday night at 11 GMT there wasnt a single game going at 5-10 on ipoker which is like the 4th largest network. The problem is that you really do not have to be very good at poker to make decent money as a bumhunter there are some truly awful regs that im sure are making 5 figures a month easily with relativley low variance. If the asia market ever opens im assuming we shall see the games wind back a few year as with a uiega reversal. There are too many unpredictable events that we cant predict that could have huge signinficance for the state of the games that i agree it seems .

One thing i think that people will realise is that if and when the games do die to a point where its not worth your time anymore then you will always be thinking you didn't take advantage of the opportunities you had. I really dont think you should be altering your life based on likely innaccurate predictions because whatever happens you will always find something to critiicise yourself with hindsight
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10-28-2008 , 07:07 PM
Why everybody say it is difficult to deposit online? I just deposited some money on FTP using my Visa check card. Don't most Americans have a check card?
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10-28-2008 , 07:09 PM
I just don't see how poker is self-sustaining from a logical standpoint. There are 100x more pros today than there were 10 years ago because of online poker, which means the reg:fish ratio has shot up significantly and shall continue to do so. The ratio is not going to change from a basic fundamental standpoint, and I cannot foresee the games continuing beyond another 10 years.
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10-28-2008 , 07:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cftw
I just don't see how poker is self-sustaining from a logical standpoint. There are 100x more pros today than there were 10 years ago because of online poker, which means the reg:fish ratio has shot up significantly and shall continue to do so. The ratio is not going to change from a basic fundamental standpoint, and I cannot foresee the games continuing beyond another 10 years.
aren't there 100x more fish today compared to 10 years ago as well???
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10-28-2008 , 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HokieGreg
aren't there 100x more fish today compared to 10 years ago as well???
there were 100x fish 3-4 years ago from what i hear than 10 years ago, but today that number has dropped significantly compared to 2005-2006. I just started in 2008 but those who have played longer have educated me on the golden ages of poker.
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10-28-2008 , 07:24 PM
fair enough

if the asian poker boom ever happens it will be the most insanely +ev thing that could ever happen to us lol
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10-28-2008 , 08:09 PM
Each day tons of newcomer make theyr frist deposit.poker is a seample of the capitalism,that is still alive over 100years.The markets,have not crashed down 4 the weak busiess faliure,new business were made.The pro take the money and then spend it in something,and the money are again in the circle.This never die,till the entropic dead of the universe.
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10-28-2008 , 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sectorNL
Named must your fear be before banish it you can.
Eh?
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10-28-2008 , 08:15 PM
I think every online poker player should go to Local Casino and donate 5 buyins at live poker, make calls with 9 high and berate everyone how bad they are and how your push over a raise/reraise with 5/2s was a great play. Then tell them your a online poker pro and super rich, this would really help the online poker economy.
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10-28-2008 , 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sectorNL
Each day tons of newcomer make theyr frist deposit.poker is a seample of the capitalism,that is still alive over 100years.The markets,have not crashed down 4 the weak busiess faliure,new business were made.The pro take the money and then spend it in something,and the money are again in the circle.This never die,till the entropic dead of the universe.
WE tak the maney
The f do
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10-28-2008 , 08:22 PM
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by sectorNL
Named must your fear be before banish it you can.

Eh?
I didn't post it
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10-28-2008 , 08:37 PM
i really think the downturn in the economy is playing a big role. also, winning at live poker used to be really really easy. whenever there is a way to make easy money, legally, people will jump on the opportunity and it will get tougher and tougher. very basic, but worth reiterating.

people are inherently selfish, and desire money. intelligent people gravitate towards poker for obvious reasons. it was only a matter of time before enough intelligent people " caught on " that this would happen. it's scary how good the average 1/2 nl player is now - he could probably have made money in 25/50 games in vegas 10 years ago ( or could now ?!). Live poker is still the best way to win easily, it's more sociable, enjoyable too. If only you could multitable!
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10-28-2008 , 09:43 PM
To kinda parrot what brandysbich said... this is really a function of the lack of deposit options, not really the overall state of the game.

There is now a window for a poker-only e-wallet within the states/counties where poker is legal and I hope someone jumps on it.

I am guardedly optimistic for a 2nd poker Renaissance in the next 2 years.
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10-28-2008 , 09:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_the_kid
Why everybody say it is difficult to deposit online? I just deposited some money on FTP using my Visa check card. Don't most Americans have a check card?
It only works for certain people with certain banks, and the caps are all pretty low. Back in the days of Neteller you could transfer quite easily.

And here here to the prospect of an Asian poker boom ZOMG.
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10-29-2008 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NemoInDeniaL
I think every online poker player should go to Local Casino and donate 5 buyins at live poker, make calls with 9 high and berate everyone how bad they are and how your push over a raise/reraise with 5/2s was a great play. Then tell them your a online poker pro and super rich, this would really help the online poker economy.
This
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10-29-2008 , 04:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by momo_the_kid
Why everybody say it is difficult to deposit online? I just deposited some money on FTP using my Visa check card. Don't most Americans have a check card?
Most do not work, and it is very expensive and difficult to deposit online compared to the old party days. My only way of cashing out is by check because my bank does not allow me to do e-checks. If I had to deposit I would have to go threw a player xfer, my only other option is western union. Western union is very expensive, and most fish would find WU difficult and not trust sending money overseas in that fashion. I think regulating and legalizing deposit/cash out methods will help the country's debt problem and would obviously bring more less skilled players to the online poker tables.
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10-29-2008 , 05:21 AM
As being privy to a lot of information in this industry, I can say pretty confidently that a lot of the ideas expressed in this thread are a little too optimistic.

The odds of an Asian poker boom are pretty low for some of the same reasons why the U.S. market has slowed (payment/depositing issues - moneybookers is no longer allowed as a deposit method). Right now, the biggest poker scene in Asia is located in Manila and the few players who've signed up are all small fries. It's all relative. The amount of money just isn't there and in Macau, 99.999% of the gamblers would much rather go on their junkets so they can squeeze for 24 hours straight.

HU bumhunting takes money faster out of the poker economy per rake generated for the site than almost any other form of poker. That's because the highest edge can be realized relative to the amount raked in midstakes.
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10-29-2008 , 05:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slider
As being privy to a lot of information in this industry, I can say pretty confidently that a lot of the ideas expressed in this thread are a little too optimistic.

The odds of an Asian poker boom are pretty low for some of the same reasons why the U.S. market has slowed (payment/depositing issues - moneybookers is no longer allowed as a deposit method). Right now, the biggest poker scene in Asia is located in Manila and the few players who've signed up are all small fries. It's all relative. The amount of money just isn't there and in Macau, 99.999% of the gamblers would much rather go on their junkets so they can squeeze for 24 hours straight.

HU bumhunting takes money faster out of the poker economy per rake generated for the site than almost any other form of poker. That's because the highest edge can be realized relative to the amount raked in midstakes.



On a side note, I went reg hunting on FTP this week . (Or were they hunting me? o_O)

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10-29-2008 , 05:37 AM
Meh?

I feel like this is just a situation where no one knows and we're all sitting on the porch trying to deduce the weather from the way the birds are singing. Part of the question is what it is that's causing the numbers to go down, lack of interest/easy money or difficulty getting money online/logistics. I don't know, and it's hard to say for sure.

I think that a good indicator is live poker. Live poker is doing very very well, and the players are just awful. Issue is that even if these monkeys get online they're usually going to be playing tournaments/full ring rather than HU so I'm not sure how much that really helps the cause.

If the gambling sillyness gets revoked/the economy booms/HU becomes the new tournament poker/etc. we're probably in good shape. If it doesn't we are in worst shape. It's near impossible to predict any of this, so it's all just a shrug.
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