I'm really struggling to put into words what has been going on. I am losing an entire buy in roughly every 300 hands for the last 20k hands. By no means am I claiming to be a great player. But this is 5nl and I am mostly losing to fish/whales. All my value hands seem to get sucked out on the turn or river and it's getting the point things are pretty suspicious.

I'm not saying the sites are rigged I know that isn't true. But I'm trying to think of some other way I could be getting cheated. Maybe 100 buy-ins below EV is just a normal downswing for 20k hands but it feels fishy.

I thought of maybe super users or bots but it doesn't seem right for 5nl.

Trying to think logically but I can't understand how I can run so poorly below EV for such a long stretch.

Yatahay Network - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 150.4 BB
Hero (BB): 541.6 BB
UTG: 124 BB
MP: 70.4 BB
CO: 111.2 BB
BTN: 48 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, MP calls 10 BB

Flop: (24.4 BB, 2 players) 4 4 A
Hero bets 8.4 BB, MP calls 8.4 BB

Turn: (41.2 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero bets 21 BB, MP raises to 50 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 29 BB

River: (141.2 BB, 2 players) 5

Hero shows A Q (Two Pair, Aces and Fours)
(Pre 65%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
MP shows 3 4 (Three of a Kind, Fours)
(Pre 35%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
MP wins 134.2 BB

You're 100bi under Ev in 20k hands?

Roughly yes. 26k hands.

Its hard to know my true EV though because a lot of the times its a 4 bet pot. Bet big on the flop and then on the turn V hits a gutshot for the last 10%-20% chips

I have read/heard many times every poker player will have downswings much worse than what they thought could be possible. 100 BIs below EV in 20k hands (really ?!?) is brutal but at least you know you are very unlucky. It's much worse when you are losing and the tracker shows nothing special, because you constantly run into the nuts or they bluffcatch you every time etc etc

My problem is it's happening to me right off the bat. So I don't even know that I am a winning player. I moved up from 2nl after around 30k hands and a 12bb/100 win rate, so I think I should be beating 5nl but I am just suspicious now.

Post your graph. This would fall in line with roughly impossible for nlhe over that sample size unless you're open shoving every single hand.

You're right. It's $100 not 100BI. so only 20BI lol

That is more reasonable. You're obviously still running bad with 20bi under EV in 26k hands, but this is very possible. I've ran ~20bi under EV in ~10k hands.

But also I want to be clear, my yellow and green line are not 20BI apart. I am trying to extrapolate hands where most of the money is in before the turn (4bet pots, x/r in 3bet pots). A lot of the time I get it in bad but its just a whale clicking call with mid pair all the way.

Then you aren't 20BI under EV.

lol.....

I think you might be focusing on the occurences where you obviously were unlucky, but you might also forget those moments where you were lucky. You might even not notice some, like: you get an A or a K on the flop when you 3bet AK more often than normal. Even your example above (very favorable runout for villains in big pots), maybe your have your fair share of good runouts in small pots and you don't notice. I'm not saying you are not running bad, I just want to nuance what you observe.

Starting to calculate you own "lack of luck factor" won't help you anyway, in my opinion. Strengthen your mental, don't forget it's just a game, try to improve your technical game and your mental game.

Be aware not playing your B or C game because of your downswing and frustration.
Having bad run outs against big fishes get players more tilted then against regs.
Play less and analyze your played hands. Not only the big pots but also the smaller pots.
It was my biggest leak for a long time.

I totally agree. The thing is. it is happening at an alarming frequency, like over and over for 20k hands now. I 4bet get cold called by the BB, get 80% of the chips in on the flop and V hits a 3 outter before all the money goes in. If that isn't below EV I don't know what is.

I look through my history and try to figure what I would expect to happen and that is where I come up with. 20BI below EV. I realize some of thee time V misses and folds turn but that just hasn't happened in this downswing.

One of the very few big pots I lost today below. I thought I was unlucky because I was a favorite when it went all-in. OK, but... Later I realized my play is pretty poor, I should fold to the shove because villain is not taking this line lightly and I am drawing dead against some part of his range. When I'm ahead it's vs a hand having good equity vs mine.

So it went from "oh, nasty villain, they took my money, I am unlucky" to "I should not have called in the first place, I hope I'll remember next time". In a sense I was even a bit lucky I was not drawing dead when the money went in.

€0.25 NL FAST (6 max)

BTN: 140.72 BB
SB: 146.28 BB
Hero (BB): 105.8 BB
UTG: 51.64 BB
MP: 294.76 BB
CO: 130.56 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A A

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, MP calls 10 BB

Flop: (24.4 BB, 2 players) 7 J K
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (24.4 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 15.48 BB, MP raises to 282.76 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 78.32 BB and is all-in

River: (212 BB, 2 players) 5

Hero shows A A (One Pair, Aces)
MP shows K Q (Flush, King High)

I get what you're saying but I am looking through hands and estimating with hands where 1/2 the money goes in when I'm a huge favorite

Complete waste of your time.

Not if you think something fishy might be going on.

You should try listening to the advice everyone's been giving you instead of constantly bringing up the fact that you're under EV over 20k hands, 20k hands isn't even a relevant sample and while running 20bi below EV over 20 hands may not be exactly standard it's still possible.

I do appreciate all the advice and honestly I am not mad, the money is really not important. I was more trying to figure out what methods someone could use to cheat because I am hitting that point where the numbers just aren't adding up.

As others have said it's a small sample size so I suppose I am getting ahead of myself.

The numbers completely add up, sucks though

Think about what you just said - the money is really not important right? So what makes you think the money would be important enough for someone to want to cheat you out of it? You think the people who are colluding would waste their resources scamming money out of people who play the smallest stakes available, when they could scam people who play for way more money?

You might be upset, that's fine, but don't be idiotic

Do you do the same thing when you win in that situation?

Putting in half your stack and losing happens all the time, and you aren't committed to putting in the remainder of your chips just because you put in half of them earlier in the hand.

That's why it is confusing. Somthing feels amiss, but nothing really makes sense. I try to start each day fresh and chalk the past up to bad luck but at some point it just starts to feel a little off.