Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($100) [VPIP: 28.7% | PFR: 24.6% | AGG: 38.3% | Flop Agg: 46% | Turn Agg: 34.2% | River Agg: 35.4% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | Fold to 3-Bet: 63% | 4-Bet: 13.5% | Hands: 86977]
UTG ($191.05) [VPIP: 31.6% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 31.6% | Hands: 38]
HJ ($101.50) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 54.5% | Hands: 27]
CO ($249.25) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 45.5% | Hands: 38]
BTN ($119.38) [VPIP: 18.8% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 85.7% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 100% | River Agg: 100% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 17]
SB ($117.57) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 21.4% | AGG: 25% | Hands: 28]

Dealt to Hero: J A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $2.50, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $13, BTN Calls $10.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.28 effective]
Flop ($26.50): Q Q J
HERO Bets $8 (Rem. Stack: $79), BTN Calls $8 (Rem. Stack: $98.38)

Turn ($42.50): Q Q J 5
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $12.11 (Rem. Stack: $86.27), HERO Calls $12.11 (Rem. Stack: $66.89)

River ($66.72): Q Q J 5 4
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $86.27 (allin), HERO ?

I presume Villain is capable of having enough busted FD's here to pair with all their Q's. In theory, V should be shoving almost all of their FDs here to go with their Q's (I am going to discount V showing up with 55 here a bit).

I think you have the equity to call here vs his range but I am always wary because Villains seem to underbluff in river spots like this.

Looks good to me - can't really ask for a better run out to bluff catch, and there's so few combos that go bet bet here.

This hand feels too high up in our turn x/c range to fold.

Is it a thing in villain's shoes to bet 1/4 pot OTT and then all-in OTR on a total brick? I can imagine doing this for value only with an invulnerable hand OTT, like JJ / QJ / AsQ maybe / quads, and we block QJ/JJ. It looks more like a desperate bluff OTR.

edit : and if he has 44 I throw my keyboard through the window!

We also block AT and the occasional AK bluffs, so not sure if I wouldnt prefer 99, 88, etc.

Checking otf also seems like an option, its not like we are getting 3 streets and we dont need much protection

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From a pure game theory standpoint it feels like a mandatory call, but I'm curious what we can glean from villains weird choice of bet size. I think the optimal bet strategy from V here is to go somewhat geometric and work in a couple 2/3 bets. So I'm wondering if there's some useful info to be gleaned from the small turn bet/large river line.

One option is they have a monster like a full house. They want to bet an amount to entice you to call with your flush draw or AK. Then when the river comes they figure jam it in and pray. That's a strong argument for fold.

Another option is they read your check as weak and tried to get you to fold for a small bet. When that didn't work they got stubborn and went big to get the fold. That's an argument for call.

There's nothing in his 17 hand sample statistically that would tilt me one way or the other. You're the MDA guy right so it seems like I'd be curious if this betting pattern conveys any meaningful info. But without any meaning info to tilt our decision, I think in this instance we just kind of have to shrug and call with our best jacks.

1. We have a bluffcatcher (even if I think GTO can probably value KJ sometimes with this line, I think nobody do it in practice)
2. Population underbluff, we can fold our bluffcatcher
3. You explain that this line is overbluff by population, so it's seems to be an easy call (without other informations on vilain).

Question : how should we play, in theory a hand that's a bluffcatcher, but also a split against a part of the betting range ? I mean, I think vilain can play AJ in this way, so is AJ still a pure bluffcatcher ? Should we play it as a bluffcatcher or in a different way ?

I am not giving him credit for finding a creative bluff with this line and am just folding the river. Even though we block some AQ, JJ, and one combo of QJs, he can still have a decent amount of Qx+... 12ish combos I think. But mostly, this line just feels milky to me.

The problem with folding imo is that it's too big of a deviation.

I also need more data on this but the turn sizing might be a sizing tell.

Villain doesn't really have AJ in his range in this spot since I can have AA/KK here. AJ is still a pure bluff catcher.

I'd say we have to be careful using MDA here since there are a bunch of mixed signals. The 100% PSB OTR is way under bluffed but then paired boards are over bluffed.

I just relied more on theory in this spot and knew that folding would be a massive mistake. The flush draw missed too which makes me want to call.

I did run a sim on this and folding is a 20bb+ mistake.

The river bet size looks unplanned, so I'd guess it's 44 a lot, but I'd still want to call since that's the only value hand that makes any sense.

Yeah this is a good point. Often when someone makes a bet that doesn't seem to make sense on a card that looks like a blank, it's a decent sign that card is indeed not a blank and hit them in some weird way.