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Shoving twice paired board with AK Shoving twice paired board with AK

01-17-2015 , 06:56 AM
Good or spew? I 3bet UTG because he's 84/32 over 37 hands with 0% F23B out of 3 opportunities. BU is 50/30 over 47 hands F23B 0% out of 4 opportunities. 0% fold to cbet, very passive post flop. My thinking on the shove was that I was hoping to get looked up by Ax, Kx hands and if he folds that's ok too. Reasonable?

iPoker - €0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 171.25 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 30.43, 3Bet Preflop: 17.39, Hands: 47)
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 13)
Hero (BB): 162.25 BB
UTG: 45 BB (VPIP: 83.78, PFR: 32.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
MP: 63.25 BB (VPIP: 38.46, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 65)
CO: 131 BB (VPIP: 14.68, PFR: 14.68, 3Bet Preflop: 2.08, Hands: 110)

6 players post ante of 0.25 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 3 BB) Hero has K A

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, Hero raises to 8 BB, fold, BTN calls 6 BB, fold

Flop: (21.5 BB, 2 players) 9 6 9
Hero bets 10.75 BB, BTN calls 10.75 BB

Turn: (43 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 143.25 BB,
Shoving twice paired board with AK Quote
01-17-2015 , 08:26 AM
I don't see how you're getting called by worse. You just don't really have any nutted hands in your range here from villain's point of view - I think even a fish will see it this way. You might get him off a chop with the A but I think he'll call with something like 77-TT. And with him having such a wide range pre he's gonna have a 6 or 9 here sometimes.

I guess you'd need to do some maths to work out the EV of the shove but if you're risking 143 to win 43 it has to work a good chunk of the time (about 75% to auto profit?). Ranging never-folding fish here is kinda tricky but my hunch is that with the range he has on the turn, he's calling too often to make your shove profitable albeit you have a bit of equity vs his pocket pairs. I think it might be quite close though. If he ever calls with K high then has to be good, likewise if he folds A high
Shoving twice paired board with AK Quote
01-17-2015 , 08:30 AM
It's pretty horrible. I'd c/c flop and go from there
Shoving twice paired board with AK Quote
01-17-2015 , 10:32 AM
Superbad
Shoving twice paired board with AK Quote
01-17-2015 , 10:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Swedishmonkey
Superbad
This was my initial reaction as well, and I'd have never made this play. But it does seem like there's a big gap between the range this particular villain gets to the turn with, and the range he'll call with and be ahead of us.

So if less than 25% of his range is ahead of us on the turn then shoving has to be +EV doesn't it? Not necessarily optimal of course

Just a noob so I might be spouting rubbish, but just trying to think this one through logically
Shoving twice paired board with AK Quote

      
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