SB is 7/4 nit over 68 hands who has only 3b once before. I don;t think he squeezes light. Is it OK to call & setmine IP? If his range is AA/KK and maaaaybe AK sometimes, we can play perfectly w/ no set no bet & prolly get his stack if we hit.

I know standard thinking is we need 20x stacks for IO, but if we hit our set 1 in 8 times and think he'll barrel it off w/ AA/KK, is it profitable to call IP w/ 10:1 IO?

Flop gives us 10 outs v his range. Do we like a call or shove here? Should we even be putting ourselves in this spot, or just folding pre?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $3.72
BB: $5.16
UTG: $14.52
UTG+1: $5.00
MP: $5.00
Hero (MP+1): $9.18
CO: $5.20
BTN: $13.18

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has 9 9

UTG calls $0.05, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.20, CO calls $0.20, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.65, fold, Hero calls $0.45, CO calls $0.45

Flop: ($2.02, 3 players) 8 6 7
BB bets $1.20, Hero?

I think here, we have to make the assumption that BB will stack off with AA or KK as an overpair. I haven't looked at the math, but if that's not the case then I'd strongly think we won't have the IO that we expect.

After that, it becomes an equity calc for both pre and post, I'll have a look at it again later when I have more time.

Also bear in mind that CO's stats are relevant here too before deciding pre since, if it goes multi-way, that gives us better IO too.

If you can put an opps range on exclusivly qq+ then I think its absolutly fine to flat provided the effective stack size is around 15x the raise.....simply because villans are rarely getting away from an overpair in a 3bet pot.....in this example its a deffinate call pre...especially as we are likely to drag the cut off along and the 3bet is nice and small. I think flop here is an easy call. There is not much chance we are ahead here vs villans range and actually were pretty happy to drag the co along as well because unless we make the straight or hit our set we are not going to be putting alot more dollars into this pot....turn becomes kind of difficult to play if we don't hit, but I think calling this flop vet is fine here.
Don't see much point in raising because we just arnt getting called by worse.....villan doesn't have much he can fold...and the co is still to act who can have alot of monsters lurking and ready to pounce.

^ Agree 100%.

cool, thx. The line i took was to flat flop and fold ott when he bet strong on a K. Just wanted to check this was the best way to play it and calling pre / otf wasn't -ev.

Would def be interested in seeing some math if somebody is willing to break down this spot and post here.

I think the sample size is too small to be making these moves, he maybe running a bit card dead, I have stats like these from time to time.

Anyways postflop, we have 30% equity against KK+, and if we reriase here it looks obvious we are somewhat drawing and villain should 3bet jam AI.

So we can call and we are in position, which is good, but the thing is a 5 or a 9 makes the str8 looks obvious and we may not get paid.