Quote:
Originally Posted by LiLongHui
Let's do an EV calculation. This is a rough estimate and you can play around with the numbers.
You either flop a set or you don't:
1) You flop a set 12% (11.8) of the time and win 80 % of opponents stack (sometimes they won't get it in). So you win [ (.8) * x bb ] - where x is stack size in bb
2) You miss the other 88% of flops and lose 20 big blinds. So you lose [ -20 bb ]
now calculate EV and solve for x, the stack size where this play becomes breakeven.
.12 * .8 * x = + .096x bb
.88 * -20 = -17.6 bb
0 = .096x - 17.6
x = 183.3 repeating
So anytime stacks are greater than 183 bb you could profitably set mine a 3 bet pot. Again this is an estimate and you can play around with the numbers.
You don't lose 20bb when you call a 3b and fold otf. You usually lose something like 9bb in total, and since you'd have invested 3bb already, it's only actually 6bb. Other than that, villain likely isn't stacking off 80% of the time, and when he does, he still has a certain amount of equity, and sometimes you'll get oversetted.
Anyway, here's a thread that details more about whether 3betting is profitable with 100bb stacks, and you could apply some of the logic that appears towards the end of it to this spot.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...-3bet-1421656/
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doofus Krondelly
No, because your opponent will check/call and check/raise a decent portion of the time.
In all likelihood it's profitable to bet when checked to with atc in a 3bp (due to the ridic higher cbetting frequency of most players in 3bps), so it should be factored in at least in some way.