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RR pot, any merit to a super thin v-bet? RR pot, any merit to a super thin v-bet?

06-13-2008 , 08:38 AM
Villain is 15/12/2.5 over ~200 hands (all from earlier sessions and I didnt have notes or didnt remember anything on him). I'd played like 10 hands and raised half of them at the table (might be a factor for his pf range?).

Seat 1: as1ne ($50.05 in chips)
Seat 3: piedome ($70.79 in chips) DEALER
Seat 5: demek700 ($53.50 in chips)
Seat 6: highrapids ($61.55 in chips)
Seat 8: duskyshark82 ($24.25 in chips)
Seat 10: Hero MP ($50.00 in chips)
demek700: Post SB $0.25
highrapids: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [J J]

duskyshark82: Fold
Hero: Raise $2.00
as1ne: Fold
piedome: Fold
demek700 (SB): Raise $6.75
highrapids: Fold
Hero: Call $5.00
*** FLOP *** [5 9 Q] Pot: 14.50
Villain: Bet $9.00
Hero: Call $9.00
*** TURN *** [6]
demek700: Check
Hero: Check
*** RIVER *** [8] Pot: 32.50
demek700: Check
Hero? Any merit to a thin v-bet in this spot? Can't see any hands that have us beat that he wont bet either on the turn or river, and I'm almost 100% sure I wont get c/r like ever. Is these two factors enough to make a small river bet of ~1/2? Can we get a call from TT or even an unlikely 9, (AK)?
Cheers
RR pot, any merit to a super thin v-bet? Quote
06-13-2008 , 08:44 AM
You have the best hand like always unless he freaked out on the turn with AQ or KK+. I think he has exactly AK or TT here 80%+ of the time. Uh... yeah why not bet $14 or something.
RR pot, any merit to a super thin v-bet? Quote
06-13-2008 , 08:49 AM
I would check because it's hard to give an accurate range for him. But there are never more hands in his range that you beat and there might be more hands than you would think in his range that beat you. This guy looks pretty weak tight an can e.g. use AQ as bluffcatcher. So if you assign a very tight range it may be slightly +EV, but when you are wrong it's never gonna get better than that, but only worse.
RR pot, any merit to a super thin v-bet? Quote
06-13-2008 , 09:37 AM
Indeed it sounds a lot like AK/TT except if he's a tricky opponent. We may got some value from TT (I doubt from AK), and I'm enclined to VB around 8-9.
RR pot, any merit to a super thin v-bet? Quote
06-13-2008 , 09:48 AM
I'd say this is AK/TT maybe JJ or his light 3bet stuff.

I prefer checking than bettign cuz there's not rly obvious hands we can vbet. Say turn and river were reversed and queen came off on the turn then I'll prefer it but it is 3bet pot and I'd hate to get c/r river though unlikely.

If we check river though we gain important 3bet information.
RR pot, any merit to a super thin v-bet? Quote
06-13-2008 , 09:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by munkey
I'd say this is AK/TT maybe JJ or his light 3bet stuff.

I prefer checking than bettign cuz there's not rly obvious hands we can vbet. Say turn and river were reversed and queen came off on the turn then I'll prefer it but it is 3bet pot and I'd hate to get c/r river though unlikely.

If we check river though we gain important 3bet information.
+1 Ditto
RR pot, any merit to a super thin v-bet? Quote
06-13-2008 , 10:12 AM
I vb this all day, but I'm also prone to c/r this river (as villain) with a 7 or JT because I see a Q betting here often and I think I can get value from it or a slowplayed set.
RR pot, any merit to a super thin v-bet? Quote
06-13-2008 , 02:47 PM
Thanks for replies!
In retrospect I think this bet was too thin (also been talking to someone with way more knowledge).
Firstly, it's a rr pot and people (especially this type of villain) will tend to play way more carefully.
Secondly, there's one legitimate hand that we might get a call out of, and certainly not everytime (maybe in the 60% range?). AK pretty much never calls. In addition to the fact that we're beat here some amount of the time, it's just not +EV in my opinion.
Just posting results for a laugh, doesn't relly matter for the decisions (just shows that I gave him a way to narrow range); I bet 17, and he called with Q3cc. Funny how nits just turns totally spewy in some spots..
RR pot, any merit to a super thin v-bet? Quote

      
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