Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.50(BB)
BTN ($51.48) [VPIP: 25.9% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 635]
SB ($96.62) [VPIP: 23.6% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 34.4% | Hands: 166]
BB ($93.12) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 39.1% | Hands: 2968]
UTG ($88.72) [VPIP: 35.1% | PFR: 21.3% | AGG: 30.2% | Flop Agg: 35% | Turn Agg: 21.4% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 2.9% | 4-Bet: 33.3% | Hands: 97]
HJ ($55.52) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 42.9% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 7]
HERO ($117) [VPIP: 24.3% | PFR: 21.4% | AGG: 35.9% | Flop Agg: 41.9% | Turn Agg: 29.4% | River Agg: 32.1% | 3-Bet: 10.9% | Fold to 3-Bet: 58% | 4-Bet: 15.9% | Hands: 421667]

Dealt to Hero: T A

UTG Raises To $1.25, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $3.93, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $2.68

Hero SPR on Flop: [9.85 effective]
Flop ($8.61): A J 9
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $6.45 (Rem. Stack: $106.62), UTG Raises To $14.90 (Rem. Stack: $69.89), HERO Calls $8.45 (Rem. Stack: $98.17)

Turn ($38.41): A J 9 4
UTG Checks, HERO Checks

River ($38.41): A J 9 4 9
UTG Bets $28 (Rem. Stack: $41.89) HERO ?

I would just check flop or bet smaller.
Ap- Calling riv should be fine.

i agree. that flop sizing has to be bad..

You guys realize you are supposed to size up your cbet sizing at higher SPRs right?

How would you ever get all the money in with a 1/3 sized cbet.

Are we trying to get all the money in with this hand? Seems like a check back to me. Honestly not sure on the flop sizing, first I thought it was bad but I'm rethinking that.

I think ranges are really tight here and this is a pretty high frequency fold. Td probably a bad card to have I imagine

I like the bet, but i think that 75% is a lot. Maybe between 50% and 65%.

We can't let flush draws get a good price, we have outs to the nuts and there are some runouts where we do want to get all the chips in so we can't bet small. We also don't bet that big because it's a board where we are gonna get a lot of X/R vs UTG range.

And i'm not understading why people are saying that flop is a check. Anyone can clear it to me?

I don't think cbet sizing is that simple. Small cbetting is common in SRP and they have even deeper SPR.

You can ob later and vs small cbet you'll get xr ed often.

I can see a X back OTF. It is probably mixed but I'm Xing back my weaker Axs and my non BDFD Axs more often than this hand so I don't think cbetting is a mistake.

I think betting small OTF is a small mistake though.

Not on this board texture though.

Even in a SRP there are no spots where the preflop aggressor has a higher EV small cbet than a large cbet on AJ9tt

Probably because I got xred.

To me it seems that we have a decent part of our range that wants to check, and this isnt a board we want to bet our entire range on. We need to protect our checking range with some Ax and this combo can play well on different turns/rivers when villain probes. Havent ran this so I may be wrong.

The Td is a really good point.

Are you calling AQ here? What about AK?

I think I am torching money by making these calls OTR. No one finds bluffs here and the Ace of spades block a ton of his FDs.

I think this might be a flop that dictates a larger bet, but I don't think the hand does. I think it's a x back.

Villain has AQ / AK.

I think A5 and A4 makes a better call than AT.

Ranges are already tight from the preflop positions. Your big ass flop bet makes them even tighter. I wouldn't be surprised to see the solver fold even AK here at a hefty frequency

Do you think A5/A4 is better than AQ?

Another reason I cbet flop is because of this guys stats. I want to get value when he has fishy stats and most likely doesn't have me beat.

That probably means river should be a fold though.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.50(BB)
BTN ($51.48) [VPIP: 25.5% | PFR: 17.6% | AGG: 28.8% | Hands: 655]
SB ($96.62) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 14.6% | AGG: 31.8% | Hands: 169]
BB ($93.12) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 16% | AGG: 39.2% | Hands: 2978]
UTG ($88.72) [VPIP: 34.2% | PFR: 21.9% | AGG: 26% | Flop Agg: 29.2% | Turn Agg: 18.8% | River Agg: 30% | 3-Bet: 2.4% | 4-Bet: 16.7% | Hands: 117]
HJ ($55.52) [VPIP: 27.6% | PFR: 17.2% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 29]
HERO ($117) [VPIP: 24.3% | PFR: 21.4% | AGG: 35.9% | Flop Agg: 41.9% | Turn Agg: 29.4% | River Agg: 32.1% | 3-Bet: 10.9% | Fold to 3-Bet: 58% | 4-Bet: 15.9% | Hands: 421934]

Dealt to Hero: T A

UTG Raises To $1.25, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $3.93, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Calls $2.68

Hero SPR on Flop: [9.85 effective]
Flop ($8.61): A J 9
UTG Checks, HERO Bets $6.45 (Rem. Stack: $106.62), UTG Raises To $14.90 (Rem. Stack: $69.89), HERO Calls $8.45 (Rem. Stack: $98.17)

Turn ($38.41): A J 9 4
UTG Checks, HERO Checks

River ($38.41): A J 9 4 9
UTG Bets $28 (Rem. Stack: $41.89), HERO Calls $28 (Rem. Stack: $70.17)

I avoided going so far as to say A5 makes a better call than AQ, because real players might bet river with AQ even when they shouldn't, at least some of the time.

Anyway, I feel dumb because i think the first thing that should have came into my head looking at this hand is AT is kind of too weak to cbet for this big size (we only have 38% equity vs a call. Even AK only has 50% equity vs villain's calling range). We are betting almost no top pair as you can see in the flop strategy below. Villain straight up folds some AKo to our flop cbet.

I also misread the hand, I thought flop was check call. So on the river here, given there was a check raise on the flop, we can be even tighter.

Flop cbet below. We fold a ton of AQ and some AK to the check raise.





We never have AT or any weaker ace in our river range in theory, but I manually inserted 1% of AT, A5, and A4 of all suits into the range in the sim on the river and we pure fold the diamond suits vs the river bet. River strategy below for our top pairs.

Dunno if this is even an equilibrium call since I'd imagine most of your AK/AQ will want to x behind turn

Wouldn't surprise me if this is purely AJs/JJ (or AJo if he's bad), I feel like people are going to fire the turn with spades most of the time

edit: just saw the spoiler, yeah seems about right lol

Thanks for the solve and break down.

Mannnn deep stack is absolutely bananas.

AK pure folds OTF - lol! Literally no one does that.

I ran a solve as well using 200BB ranges and the flop cbet sizing is 125% for highest EV sizing and ATs is a pure X back.

Looks like I totally messed this hand up.

Its trivial to see the value of AT in this spot, not wanting to play for stacks with this hand otf vs UTG range. I x back flop and play turn, AP I cant imagine AT is ever good OTR, way better hands to defend with here