PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 103 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 9.89, 3Bet Preflop: 3.75, Hands: 442)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.11, PFR: 9.65, 3Bet Preflop: 1.32, Hands: 416)
BB: 59.3 BB (VPIP: 7.69, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
UTG: 98.1 BB (VPIP: 22.50, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 41)
UTG+1: 128.7 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 9.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 81)
Hero (UTG+2): 119.5 BB
MP: 96.5 BB (VPIP: 13.84, PFR: 8.18, 3Bet Preflop: 4.41, Hands: 163)
MP+1: 119.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
CO: 181.6 BB (VPIP: 26.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 53)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T J

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold, UTG calls 2 BB

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) Q 4 3
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (10 BB, 3 players) 7
SB bets 5 BB, fold, Hero calls 5 BB

River: (20 BB, 2 players) 6
SB bets 10 BB, Hero raises to 30 BB, SB raises to 92 BB and is all-in, Hero?

Fist pump snap call

Why raise the river if ur gonna fold to a jam? If that's the case should of just called his bet

Snippetty snap call. Stop playing SCs if you don't want to stack off when you hit your flush. Sorry he called pre with AKss.

bet the flop to take this dead money down ur opening UTG u look strong, and btw opening utg with that it´s meh.

as played... maybe a cooler, but, you chosse to play this hand like this. villan donking beting turn have a ton of FD.

river i really fold this, just calling against whales, but... im a nit

Villain had ak of clubs for the nuts paid him off

ofc he with a low flush calls most of the time if he is a std FRnit.
sometimes they can overplay a small flush, so the call its not massive bad.

My question would be, are you assigning too high a proportion to villain's bluffs v this type of opponent?

His stats are pretty tight and he's a bit passive (low 3bet) but a bit taggy (prf is 2/3 VPIP) so he's likely to play safe oop but bet his opportunities hard. He's a disciplined player to keep those stats over 416 hands and he's called a re-raise so he must think he has some equity. And if you have 416 hands on him he has 416 on you (plus notes) so a question here is how does he see your play?

When the flop comes, you're the preflop aggressor so he's likely to check to you oop on the flop so that's not a surprise. When you don't bet the flop he's going to think you might have missed so he'll bet an opportunity on the river. When he bets the 7c he has broadway overcards, Qxs, A7s, pairs he was dealt and wants to protect, slow-played 2pair (34s) and trips (expecting you to have bet the flop), a straight (56suited, but not clubs as we find out later), a flush draw he wants to start getting value for - or bluffs.

The 6c is either v bad or v good for him. When he bets he's either value betting and hoping you don't have a flush, or bluffing. So when he reraises rather than calling your raise he either has a nuttish hand or he's turned everything else into a bluff to rep a big flush. This includes his value hands (AQ, KQ, TT, 99, 88, 2-pair, trips, straight). Is he really likely to do this? This would only make sense if he thought you had no value and were stone-cold bluffing almost all the time. More likely with his stats he would call or fold his value hands (of which he has a lot in his range).

So that leaves him reraising with bluffs and flushes. So what flush would he call with preflop. If we say Ax, Kx or suited connectors then there are 13 combinations of Ax, Kx all of which have you beat. That leaves SCs of which there are only 4 combos ie 98, 54,43,32 (and surely he would call with these knowing that you could have a flush with Ax, KJ, JT, T9?). If you include 1 gappers that only adds 2 more combos: 53 and 42. So you're behind to almost all flush combos that would be raised. That it turns out to be AKs is neither here nor there - a lot of players will smooth call AK oop because when it misses it's just an Ace high and hard to play.

In the end you have to believe he is pulling a massive bluff on the river in order to call this and still think you're ahead because the only way you'll win is if a tightish, slightly passive player has suddenly decided to run an outrageous bluff in a bad spot.

What % of the time do you think he is bluffing in this spot? And would you still have called if you had realised that if he had a flush you were beaten 13 times out of 17?

It was a value bet. We received new information telling us that our hand is not good. Not everything is as simple as your silly question. And before you ask, no we didn't "raise for information".

fyp

that quote is exactly the opposite of this:

You're a fish.

OMG this is so not a snap.

Hero should raise for value if he thinks that Villain will call with worse. If Villain then comes back over the top Hero can fold if he thinks that Villain isn't raising without the nuts.

I'm not saying folding is correct here but it isn't as simple as you're making out.

I'm iso'ing 4x and C-betting here.

As others have pointed out, this logic is very flawed. It's a value-bet. We can get calls from worse here.

Hero raising would be bad if it was bigger, but as played, we can certainly find a fold. That said villain is a nit thus a river call would have been better - unlikely that a nit is bluffing on the river. Bet the flop too.

ty nice detailed post well broken down so if hes not a manic its usually a fold in this spot .

my line in hand was . should of flatted river but I said i go for thin value on river as I was after getting runner runner flush extremely hard for me to have flush too on the flip side of it. I thought i could extract value from sets an unlikey straight and AQ type hands but when he Jammed i should of folded but was in tempo and i said he have to show me close to the Ax kx or Qx for a win so just paid him off ..I was running 14/10/4 at the time so not loose so get bluffed a good bit as well playing zoom and fish can show up with anything but he not a loose fish he tight .

Lol

I'm folding this river against this V.

How is this ever a fistpump? This is probably pretty close and a tough spot.