[LOW] river decision with a str8 on BB vs EP - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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[LOW] river decision with a str8 on BB vs EP

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12-13-2022 , 06:25 PM

Ramius

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 2,148

Villain i consider strong regular 22/19/10 AF around 2.0 on ~800 hands, what is interesting that villain 3bets and 4bets hero 2x more than population!, but maybe it's just a sample size

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $25.00 (100 bb)
MP: $35.83 (143 bb)
CO: $27.72 (111 bb)
BU: $25.80 (103 bb)
SB: $38.40 (154 bb)
BB (Hero): $25.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 9♠ 7♠
UTG raises to $0.63, 4 players fold, Hero calls $0.38

Flop: ($1.36) T♣ 5♠ 8♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.43, Hero calls $0.43

Turn: ($2.22) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.59, Hero raises to $6.50, UTG calls $4.91

River: ($15.22) J♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $17.44 (all-in), [b]Hero?

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12-14-2022 , 05:27 AM

nonsimplesimon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 10,161

Double gutter with bdfd... raise the flop imo. As played yeah its good to raise somewhere before the river so I will take it ott. Call the river.

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12-14-2022 , 06:07 AM

_doc_

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2022 Posts: 349

Our call flop, CR turn value range I guess looks something like QT + Q8s + some J9s. Pretty narrow, so we don't need many bluffs, but your hand is obviously very good to do it with if you don't raise the flop with it. But we rep pretty slim with primarily 2p-combos that all hate this river.

I would expect an opponent to check back A high FDs otf a decent amount of time because they have some SD value and this flop will have a decent amount of checkraises from you. With the Jc and Tc out there, there aren't many QcXc and KcXc left in the UTG range and only 6c7c left of the SCs.

I am definately not loving it, but I think we have to call.

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12-14-2022 , 06:58 AM

moxterite

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Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 2,065

Is this a flop you could lead, or should BB never lead out against UTG? I think this flop smashes your range - you have all the sets, some 2 pair, some top pair (probs not CR) and some big draws. Folding out AK etc would be a decent result, there are some good barreling cards, and you can get a reverse free card on the turn quite a lot with a turn check when called. So I strongly favour a CR as a default, with a lead somewhat tempting.

After a XC is there enough strength to check-raise turn still? By the river I'm not sure what to do as I wouldn't get there like that, I'd probably just jam myself

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12-14-2022 , 11:05 AM

DooDooPoker

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Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 19,691

22/19 are nitty stats just fwiw.

But turn XR is good. I'd block bet the river and fold to a jam. As played, fold.

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12-14-2022 , 11:36 AM

Ramius

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 2,148

Dunno what to think about his play, starting from preflop to river, it's a bluff or value bet?

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players
Hand delivered by Upswing Poker

UTG: $25.00 (100 bb)
MP: $35.83 (143 bb)
CO: $27.72 (111 bb)
BU: $25.80 (103 bb)
SB: $38.40 (154 bb)
BB (Hero): $25.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 9♠ 7♠
UTG raises to $0.63, 4 players fold, Hero calls $0.38

Flop: ($1.36) T♣ 5♠ 8♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.43, Hero calls $0.43

Turn: ($2.22) Q♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.59, Hero raises to $6.50, UTG calls $4.91

River: ($15.22) J♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $17.44 (all-in), Hero calls $17.44 (all-in)

Total pot: $50.10 (Rake: $2)

Showdown:
UTG shows Q♣ J♠ (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 63%, Flop: 63%, Turn: 68%, River: 0%)

BB (Hero) shows 9♠ 7♠ (a straight, Eight to Queen)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 37%, Flop: 37%, Turn: 32%, River: 100%)

BB (Hero) wins $48.10

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12-14-2022 , 11:45 AM

DooDooPoker

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 19,691

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramius

Looks like a bluff to me. He never get's called by worse. It's a creative play here since mostly people are capped at 9x/2pair/sets and almost never have flushes when they X river.

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12-14-2022 , 01:55 PM

Ramius

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 2,148

I dont hate his play, but assuming he cbets KK/AA OTF sometimes those are upposed to be better bluffs, he also have missed backdoor spades

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12-14-2022 , 02:28 PM

madchens123

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 489

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ramius

I dont hate his play, but assuming he cbets KK/AA OTF sometimes those are upposed to be better bluffs, he also have missed backdoor spades

The thing is, the population overfolds rivers by a pretty significant margin so it's profitable in a lot of places to just bluff almost everything. While he may have better bluffing candidates I bet this type of play prints against the 25NL pool seeing as you at least considered folding here.

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