Villain was playing about 32/18/0 over 75 hands. Often I'd 3-bet with this hand from the BTN but I decided to just flat in position here. Flop is standard. When villain checks turn, I decided to semi-bluff cause much of the time villain is giving up here. When he called, it was a little weird, but I thought he prob had something like 66-99 or a weak 10. I hit my J otr and thought about checking behind with what was prob the best hand, but given villain's likely range I decided I could get some thin value with a small bet. When villain c/shoved I was surprised cause I couldn't figure out a lot of hands that villain plays this way for value that he opened with in MP, but on the other hand a c/r otr is almost always a monster. Opinions here?

Coulda just been bluffing it, but most likely a J10. Gotta fold that river.

Just fold river for sure. Line is fine. I would have bet $3 on river though, since we induce action by betting that small imo. Check behind on the river is also an option, since i find his turn c/c very suspicious.

Based on the betting pattern, I put a villain on a range of AJs, JJ, Tx (likely T[A-9]), most pocket pairs (disregard 5s, 3s and 2s) and busted flush draws. AJs, JJ, and slightly over half of the pocket pairs are all for value here, obv.

Tx seems standard that he bet out with top pair making the flush pay to get, checked on the board pairing planning to fold to any diamond on the river and not wanting to get bet off his TP on the turn. The river bet also makes sense with this holding that he had some showdown value and then puts you on a busted flush draw on the river so reraises and/or gets tilted by thinking you may have a jack and raises the roof off it to try to get you off the best hand when he's outdrawn on the river

The busted flush draw also makes sense that he c-bets the flop and follows up by checking not wanting to get c/r off by a 3 on the turn. Additionally, with your low bet sizing on the river it makes you look really weak and he recognizes a prime opportunity to use his big stack to try to push you off a hand by looking super strong when he's weak. The bet sizing argument also works for pocket pairs that aren't overs or sets on the river

At this point you then need to find out whether or not he holds Tx ,a busted flush draw or inferior pocker pairs enough times to make a profitable call. You need to put $4.17 into a pot of $10.57, so you need to be right 28.10% of the time to profitably make this call.

There are 80 hand combos of T[A-9] , 36 pocket pairs that can beat us and 24 that can't, 7 combos of suited A of diamonds (don't double count from our first AT combo) that arent good along with KQ, 76, 65 and 32 suited connected of diamonds.

With the littany of hand combos listed there comparable to the much lower amount of hand combos that are good, I would be inclined to make a call. Though to be fair I am somewhat of a station. I just see that huge overbet on the end being a function of the big stack trying to throw his weight around to take down a pot when he saw a weak bet on the river

Hahaha ok while I appreciate your opinions I don't agree with much of what you said. first, "bullying" me with a big stack is not possible in a cash game because effective stack is all that matters: if villain has $1 billion and I have $5.00, he can only go all-in for $5.00. There is no possibility that villain was bluffing me with this intention, if he was bluffing at all (which I don't think he was). Next, it's impossible for villain to be c/r'd, because he would have to have position on me, and I had the BTN in this hand. furthermore, I have very very few 3s in my calling range pre-flop (if any), and I may not even call a c-bet otf if I did- villain would not be concerned of me having a 3 here. Villain NEVER has JJ here because A) he would have bet the turn instead of c/c'ing and B) there is only 1 combo of JJ left otr since I just made a pair of Js. In fact, villain bets 10x and JJ-AA on the turn, so those are all discounted. He is also very unlikely to also have a flush draw because I would expect him to barrel the turn with those as well.

Fold pre.

Like I say, this was a really weird line that villain took for what is likely clear value. A river c/r does not make sense as a bluff, but combined with villain's c/c ott I strongly believe he had a monster. Raising from MP and given that he c/c'd turn, c/r'd river, I think villain's most likely hands are TT, 44, and 33, since that would explain why he didn't bother to bet for protection against the flush draw ott. After some thought, I folded my top pair otr and villain said in the chat box that he had 33 for quads, and although he didn't show, I believe it for a few reasons. psychologically, if he was bluffing he would not have claimed to have 33 because its so unbelievable, so im more inclined to believe him. also, 33 fits with the betting patterns and also with a small timing tell ott where he hesitated and just decided to c/c instead of c/r because he had the nuts.

that was very helpful, thanks. LOL

I'm folding pre, but I could 3-bet depending on the villains fold to 3 bet stat. As played I can't see what you beat by the river, maybe I see to many monsters but his screams fullhouse.

you really should strive to keep your game as simple as the level allows.
fold pre, and if you don't fold pre use bigger sizing and fold to the raise.

Also note that he c-bet into 2 players. If he has half of a brain he'd bet the turn with draws, because it's a strong line and he wants you to fold. Pairs almost always protect against draws here, and blufcatch the river. Total air is not in his range after c/c turn, so c/r river is the nuts.

I know you're being sarcastic but I'm in a good mood so I'll clarify.
Poker is a game of more than 1 street. By folding pre, you get yourself into less marginal spots where you don't have reads post flop.
You have to ask yourself, if you flop a J or an 8, how many streets can you make +ev decisions on?
Probably not many if you've only described him as a "X vp/ X pfr" with no notes.
Which is why I said to fold pre.

Well God forbid that you detect my sarcasm while in a bad mood! hahaha. anyway, while I agree that I made a bit of a loose call preflop, I was on the BTN with a hand that is well disguised and thus can cooler people, and at the same time it has quite low reverse-implied odds as long as I am prudent with my decisions, and playing IP helps enormously as well of course. Besides, hindsight aside, and given villain's likely range on all streets here (obviously before I realized I was beat, since I think he flopped bottom set) I believe I made quite +EV decisions on all streets.

J8s is disguised the same way that K7s flops 2 pair on K72r and no one puts you on it. It doesn't mean you should play it.
It's not hard to make +ev decisions when people cbet, check turns and then you river the effective nuts.
But you didn't have reads that villain checks a lot of turns.

Bet river bigger, if you wanted postflop advice. $3.50-$4.20

ok true, but a hand like J8s has the added benefit of flopping equity more frequently than K7s since J8 will often flop at least a straight draw (or at least backdoor). not only that, but when you flop a pair with J8 it will not be dominated as easily by a MP or EP raiser since they are more likely to open with Kx than with Jx. K7s has higher reverse-implied odds than J8s does for this reason obv. Also, although fish will often call big bets with weak hands, I was thinking that the max I should be betting on this river for value is like $3.00 tops.

If you really could play J8s so profitably, you would fly past 10NL and wouldn't need help on the river regarding sizing. You wouldn't call a bet with J8s here "thin" either.

Not going to change your mind. I'm out.

I like to check back on the river, maybe we are loosing some value against Tx but i realy dont see any other worse hands to call here.

There are many many worse hands that can call here. It's a very standard value bet here. The river bet sizing here can lead to leveling and i much prefer a 3 or 3.5 dollar bet size on river here. He can still call with alot worse whilst he is basically never C/R bluffing.

Aaaahh yes there it is, finally. It always has to be an ego war doesn't it. I acknowledged this advice respectfully and engagingly, yet ur still not satisfied just cause I refuse to suck your **** and unabashedly accept all your advice in full. finally, for anyone else who finds it entertaining to read this, given that betting the river for value is fine since I will normally have the best hand here, while at the same time checking back the river with showdown value is another entirely acceptable option as well since my hand is not enormously strong, I think the term "thin value" functions adequately in this situation, although I admit that it straddles the line between thin and standard/solid value betting.

Exactly what worse hands do you think are calling here? I dont see a 4 or 55- 99 ever call here cuz we kinda are repping Tx pretty hard.

Bet river much bigger,

Fold pre.

well again its dependent on who we're up against. many players at this level will call this river with 77-99 and 10x, although if he has a 10 I don't see him opening with anything less than KT meaning i'd expect him to barrel TPGK and better ott rather than c/c. against a better player i'd check it back, but this villain's stats are clearly not indicative of that.

Fold pre.
Also with your discussion with zomg, i know i have no right getting involved with other peoples business but i believe you both got heated because you weren't taking in the information either of you were putting out. Cant be so hard headed when you ask for advice in the future. Also being sarcastic is never a good thing even if its in a joking matter, people may take it in poor taste.
With that being said good luck with your game and also as other people are posting your river bet was to small and could induce action.

imo, fold pre.

Looking at the line villain took, i believe he flopped a strong hand on the flop (set of TT's), then slow played/passive line on the turn when the board paired the trey and c/r on the River. I think we are 90% of the time looking at a full house, TTT33; therefore fold the River.

fold pre ainec
bet river bigger