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QK vs lag QK vs lag

12-21-2012 , 01:27 AM
villain is 58/23/3 over 50 hands.. have been raising almost every hand, either on tilt or super aggressive. very likely to bet on complete air.
Winning Poker Network - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): $11.36
UTG: $3.13
CO: $13.52
BTN: $4.24
SB: $5.52

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q K

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players) 9 9 2
SB bets $0.23, Hero raises to $0.92, SB calls $0.69

Turn: ($2.44, 2 players) Q
SB checks, Hero bets $1.80, SB raises to $4.30 and is all-in,
Spoiler:
fold

SB wins $5.64


Normally, I'd just fold the turn vs a raise like this but against something this lag is it possible for him to has lower Qx hands? what is the +EV play in the long run against players like this in the long run? Thanks guys.
QK vs lag Quote
12-21-2012 , 01:29 AM
Dont like the raise OTF. We hit nothing in our range and he is not folding.
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12-21-2012 , 01:30 AM
calling flop looks better than raising vs this guy
turn bet could be a bit smaller but yeah bet/calling turn is good
QK vs lag Quote
12-21-2012 , 01:42 AM
Your flop raise is so bad that it could actually work to your advantage on the turn if he can hand read even a little bit. So yeah, call it off
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12-21-2012 , 01:53 AM
The only reason I think the turn is a call is the great pot odds we're getting. I think he's check/shoving for value most times, but he could be bluffing or have a worse kicker (more likely) frequently enough.

Those aren't the stats of a maniac in my experience. If his PFR and aggression were higher, it would make a call a lot more favourable.
QK vs lag Quote
12-21-2012 , 02:45 AM
Quote:
have been raising almost every hand, either on tilt or super aggressive. very likely to bet on complete air.
If you've actually seen him show down an air bluff, I like a call here. If you're speculating based on his actions, I fold.
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12-21-2012 , 03:29 AM
In my experience this kind of player generally dislike folding on a paired dry flop because no one has anything, I would just float him and take it down later, but is he capable of folding? Just know that if you call flop he will almost always barrel turn, I assume, so tread with care and choose your spots.
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