Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($102.16) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 37.4% | Flop Agg: 44% | Turn Agg: 33.4% | River Agg: 36% | 3-Bet: 11.6% | 4-Bet: 14.9% | Hands: 207609]
BTN ($108.02) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 25% | Fold to 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 9]
SB ($176.32) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 11.9% | AGG: 35.3% | Hands: 42]
BB ($102.50) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 6]

Dealt to Hero: 4 4

HERO Raises To $2, BTN Raises To $7, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $5

Hero SPR on Flop: [6.14 effective]
Flop ($15.50): J 7 8
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $4.85 (Rem. Stack: $96.17), HERO Raises To $17.07 (Rem. Stack: $78.09), BTN Calls $12.22 (Rem. Stack: $83.95)

Turn ($49.64): J 7 8 5
HERO Bets $15.58 (Rem. Stack: $62.51), BTN Calls $15.58 (Rem. Stack: $68.37)

River ($80.80): J 7 8 5 5
HERO ?

Once you get there I would fire the 3rd one, I see some protection jamming from ip with some set OTT (I imagine that solver never do it).

OTR Villan has some Ax or Kx of heart to fold and given the fact that the spot is CO vs BTN villan has alot of off combo in his range.

Idk about hand choice to do it. In this position Villan can 3bet 77,88 so I would prefer to do it with a hand that block set like 98s , 67s (you have also more outs vs overpair with those kind of hands)

A solver is mixing calls/folds with QQx and KKx. I think all those hands just call in practice though, which makes me less incentivized to bluff.

I also beat AKx and AQx more often than a solver because I think those hands check back more than they should OTR.

Think the best flop play is going to depend a lot on what your assumptions are at the flop. If villain is making the mistake of range betting this flop and overfolding versus a raise, then we can basically raise our entire range

If villain is checking behind flop some of the time then we can't raise nearly as often, particularly if they're checking behind with more garbage than they should. In that scenario we basically just can only call the flop with this hand. Raising there sucks more because our heart outs aren't clean; if we do hit a heart we're just praying that it checks through, and we have less incentive to deny equity. We also have showdown vs stuff like AhKx/AhQx that will frequently just check all the way down

For either scenario I think we just want to bet turn/check river. Like you say, we'll probably have more showdown than we should

I cannot understand the logic behind this play at this point guys. I think the goal of this play is to make Villan fold, 99 with heart, TT with heart, Jx no heart, some weak Jx, maybe overpair no heart, and to make him fold hands that can re-bluff us OTR like Ax or Kx with heart.

I would rather check when heart complete OTR because BTN at that point should bluff set, 2p with no heart (I think this spot is severely underbluffed)

So we Check this river because there are hands that call Flop, call turn and check back river to loose? Basically we are check raising flop and betting turn for value?

I could get on board with bluffing if the board didn't pair. Overpairs now beat 87s which is played like this a lot and trying to get players to fold Overpairs usually doesn't work that well. Population will call AA/KK/QQ here more than a solver.

You also have to think about the cbetting range. If they aren't ranging, what is a more likely cbet? TT/99 with a heart or AhX hands. I think it's the latter and it's not really that close. All AhX hands can comfortably call a XR whereas the middling hands (like Jx/TT/99) want to play smaller pots and have harder decisions OTT/OTR if I end up check-raising.

Idk if flop is much of a thing also pre is marginal.
AP-I would xc river, but solver pure jams river(but almost never xr flop)

I'm not sure how great x/c river will be, players over estimate SDV a ton and under bluff in C-C-B lines.

I prefer xr over call since population over cbets.

over estimate SDV?

Yes I think a lot of players will think AQx/AKx will have SDV OTR. Or just won't bluff often enough.

I hate flop cr, I dont know your pool, but i doubt even on my nl 25 this kind of flop will be overcbet by good players, AP, i would play river in same way as i would without cr flop, and I dont know what do to tbh, just another reason to not cr

I would agree 100% w this statement. I think check river is best move, they will way too often check back those hands and you win. Firing the 3rd barrel I think you get called by a lot of AJ and overpairs. We play in the same pool, they do not fold overpairs here.

Might as well, otherwise the line doesn't seem profitable if u're not taking the decent runouts to bluff.

River is definitely a check - he should have a lot of single heart hands on the river especially after you gave him a great price on the turn, and I think he might check back the flop a lot when he has middling value hands. Would expect most of his range to be single heart hands,better value hands that won't fold.

Results

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($102.16) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 37.3% | Flop Agg: 44% | Turn Agg: 33.4% | River Agg: 36% | 3-Bet: 11.6% | 4-Bet: 14.9% | Hands: 209535]
BTN ($108.02) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 50% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 25% | Fold to 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 9]
SB ($176.32) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 11.9% | AGG: 35.3% | Hands: 42]
BB ($102.50) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 6]

Dealt to Hero: 4 4

HERO Raises To $2, BTN Raises To $7, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $5

Hero SPR on Flop: [6.14 effective]
Flop ($15.50): J 7 8
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $4.85 (Rem. Stack: $96.17), HERO Raises To $17.07 (Rem. Stack: $78.09), BTN Calls $12.22 (Rem. Stack: $83.95)

Turn ($49.64): J 7 8 5
HERO Bets $15.58 (Rem. Stack: $62.51), BTN Calls $15.58 (Rem. Stack: $68.37)

River ($80.80): J 7 8 5 5
HERO Checks, BTN Checks