He's running 25/18 over small sample.

watching verneer's thread, especially this two videos, i was asking myself if this is a profitable board to c/r

Some of you will complain that "this is 10NL you shouldnt be doing this" , but profit its not priority now but learn new EV+ moves and how to aplly them.

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $6.45
CO: $7.70
BTN: $17.90
Hero (SB): $13.90
BB: $1.85
UTG: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 7 7
UTG raises to $0.40, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.90) 2 K 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.60, Hero ?




And the second question comes about what turn cards are we double barrelling?

(The same question goes to verneers hand, i couldnt ask in due time )

no just fold

if you do c/r bet a club/ace/seven other wise giveup.


Your ahead of his range for betting however you should fold the flop, tell me why I think this and I will give you two cookies

Why would you? If he has air, you are ahead anyways. If he has the K, you are crushed.

What if he has JJ?

Lets use verneers range for a 14/11 player.

AJ+ KQ 22+ . This board hits something like aprox 30% of that range, but due that his range seems to be larger my fold equity increases (or not? what do u think?) and that might compensate the fact that im OOP .


All of this is because im not getting profit the times i hit a set OOP against any position so i feel i should start being more aggro postflop.

Because we're OOP and we have two outs improve when we're behind? He has at least 6 outs most of the time he's behind, which means we don't have as much showdown value as we might think. Since he has initiative and position we're also way more likely to put in money incorrectly than he is, especially because we don't know his post-flop tendencies.

That's really highly dependent on your postflop reads of villain, but let's first determine if raising here is profitable at all vs. his calling range postflop. Given we don't know his range too well, let's give him a fairly standard UTG opening range:

22+: 73 hands (12 * 6 + 1) (77 discounted by 5)
KQ: 16
AQ+: 32
AJs: 4

For a total of 125 hands.

On the flop, we have to discount the hands he cannot have. So we discount AK and KQ by 4 each, 22 and 55 by 3 each, and brings our new total to 111 hands.

Of those hands, he's going to continue with:
22 (3)
55 (3)
KK (3)
AA (6)
AK (12)
KQ (12)
QQ and JJ 25% of the time. (3 total)
AcJc, AcQc (2)

So villain is going to call with 44 hands, and fold 67 or 60% of his range. Raising here to $1.80 only requires you to fold out 54% of his hands, so the assuming the ranges we have for villain are correct, it should show a profit.

The next question would be, would firing on a club turn be profitable? I'm not sure. Let' say villain 3bets the flop with his sets/overpairs 50% of the time, his top pair hands 33% of the time, and his flush draws 50% of the time as well. Since we have no real reads, this is of course probably inaccurate, but it's good for the sake of argument.

That leaves:
AK/KQ (16 total)
22/55/KK (4.5)
AA (3)
QQ/JJ (3)
made flushes (1)
27.5 hands total
8.5 hands sets/overpairs
19 hands one-pair

With a potsize of 4.50, could we bet $3, how often would villain have to fold his non-sets/AA for this to be profitable? We need 40% of his range to fold, or 11 hands. We'll assume QQ and JJ fold 100% of the time when they stick around. That leaves 8 hands out of 16. We need him to fold the rest of his range 50% of the time. Will you get that? I have no idea without reads, but it's safe to say it is pretty thin either way and I'd probably check behind.

theory: one main difference is in the verneer hand, we have position and can rep lots of value hands + semibluffs. here our perceived range includes 22/55 (if these even call pre), a few flush draws, and air. we cant rep much here, so vs a good player we cant bluff often in this spot.

but without history and/or vs bad players we can get lots of folds so gogogo.

barreling on anything other than a 7 seems really thin.

He probably isn't cbetting a king, for value on later streets.

also in verneer hand, there are more scary turn cards that could possibly be barreled. not many here in OP's hand.

As said before i think Veneer has position which i think is an important factor if the pot continues.

not against tightish UTG opener imo.

boolean ftw

ty all for your answers, great post u made boolean

now a new question.. does this move works better against tight or loose UTG raisers?

save your c/r bluff game for defending against late position steals. it's easier when their range is weak to begin with, as opposed to a strong utg range.

also, if c/r bluffing is working against this guy's utg opens, keep in mind for the future that set mining is probably not going to pay.

two cookies ...