Pretty tough spot with AK - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Pretty tough spot with AK

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03-05-2011 , 10:19 AM

MatthiASS89

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 38

Villain is a big fish. He plays 62/9/6.3 , but didnt raise a cbet yet!!!

But when he turns his cards over after the money went in, i always see KQ or better

( likely not true

)

Do you fold on the flop or push directly?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($25)
Button ($31.47)
Hero (SB) ($25.85)
BB ($25)
UTG ($67.23)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

, K

UTG bets $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, Hero raises $3.15, 1 fold, UTG calls $2.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.25) Q

, K

, 4

(2 players)
Hero bets $4.75, UTG raises $9.50, Hero calls $4.75

Turn: ($26.25) 10

(2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $13.25, Hero calls $13.10 (All-In)

River: ($52.45) K

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $52.45

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03-05-2011 , 01:04 PM

PeoplesElbow

banned

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 10,847

bet/shove flop

worse can call, draws, etc etc, dont like c-c, so many turns are gonna hurt you.

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03-05-2011 , 03:05 PM

Hurrrrrrrr

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 434

would've taken same line, i think shoving over his minraise folds out too much bluff/semi bluffs. also fish seems kinda passive, so whenever they raise alarm bells go off in my head.

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03-05-2011 , 03:20 PM

PeoplesElbow

banned

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 10,847

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeoplesElbow

bet/shove flop

worse can call, draws, etc etc, dont like c-c, so many turns are gonna hurt you.

mean to say i dont like b-f on flop

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03-05-2011 , 03:53 PM

elpsnot

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 559

well his pre-flop raising range is pretty tight. doubt 44 is in there.Its a easy bet for value on flop, but to a raise he reps AA KK QQ KQ AK. Dont think he would get out of line with a gutshot here as he is passive unless he is aggro after pre-flop but he hasnt raised a c-bet yet or you have no notes that he can get out of line and spew on flop.And we are in a 3 bet pot.

So based on info his range is value a ton,so just count how many value combos we beat which is none out of his tight pre-flop raising range and we chop with AK.So its most likely a fold in this spot vs this player.you prob lose 8 out of 10 times in this situation with this player.

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03-05-2011 , 06:12 PM

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

I would be willing to bet that he set his queens there because his pf actions represent something in the range of AK-QQ-JJ-TT-AQ.

Theres no way he takes that line with AQ, JJ, or TT imo, and I highly doubt he called a 3 bet of that size with 44.

Here, you tie with AK, you lose to KK (which still seems unlikely, but possible I suppose), and you lose to QQ.

I think his range is actually quite small after his flop raise, and you have to fold because you only beat 1 set of combos in that range (and thats at best assuming that he took a squirrely line with AQ or something). I'm interested to see the results.

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03-05-2011 , 06:16 PM

Systolic

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeoplesElbow

bet/shove flop

worse can call, draws, etc etc, dont like c-c, so many turns are gonna hurt you.

look at the villains stats.

There arent that any worse hands that call at that point, especially after he open raised pf and then raised the flop.

I mean we cant put him on AA here obv, but with a flop like that playing aggressively with JJ TT and worse is suicide.

Heres how I like to think about it -

If you opponent (WEAK OPPONENT, I should clarify), seems to show no regard for what you could possibly be holding, he probably has a monster.

These players are stupid. Playing wildly + playing unafraid = he might as well have the nuts.

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03-05-2011 , 06:21 PM

wishiewish

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 11,219

Ship flop and be happy about it. Villain is playing more than half of the hands he is dealt and still averaging 6.3 AF means he is prolly happy to get it in here with nearly all Kx and mb some Qx. If he has you beat, it is a cooler.

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03-05-2011 , 06:47 PM

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by wishiewish

I dont agree

He has enough information to deduce that he is very likely to be beat.

Why take a cooler when you can avoid one that is likely?

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03-05-2011 , 06:48 PM

#10

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by wishiewish

s he is prolly happy to get it in here with nearly all Kx and mb some Qx.

Kx isnt in his raise range, and he is OOP preflop also

Look at the entire line and you will see that Kx (other than maybe KQ) is absolutely not in his range at this point.

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03-05-2011 , 06:50 PM

#11

Systolic

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Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

I would be willing to bet that villain had QQ or KQ here.

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03-05-2011 , 06:51 PM

#12

wishiewish

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Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 11,219

Villain is 62/9 with 6.3 AF

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03-05-2011 , 06:52 PM

#13

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by wishiewish

Villain is 62/9 with 6.3 AF

Yes and he open raised UTG

He is x/9, and you put Kx in his pf range here?

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03-05-2011 , 06:52 PM

#14

Noppey

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,640

Agree with systolic, bet/folding flop, he won't raise worse here pretty much ever.

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03-05-2011 , 06:53 PM

#15

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

KQ is absolutely viable here

AK is absolutely viable

Anything else Kx is not based on preflop play.

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03-05-2011 , 06:54 PM

#16

wishiewish

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Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 11,219

I will take bets on him not knowing what UTG means.

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03-05-2011 , 06:54 PM

#17

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by wishiewish

I will take bets on him not knowing what UTG means.

Kx under KQ still isnt in his pf range.

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03-05-2011 , 06:55 PM

#18

Noppey

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,640

Quote:

Originally Posted by wishiewish

I will take bets on him not knowing what UTG means.

It's still 9% at best, which is very tight. And he's not likely to bluffraise anything at all.

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03-05-2011 , 06:55 PM

#19

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

If it is, its an outlier in this scenario and hero should still fold the flop based upon given info.

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03-05-2011 , 06:56 PM

#20

wishiewish

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Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 11,219

We don't even know if he is opening strong hands and limping weak.
Kx is obviously in his range, so is tons of Qx.

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03-05-2011 , 06:57 PM

#21

Noppey

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,640

Quote:

Originally Posted by wishiewish

We don't even know if he is opening strong hands and limping weak.
Kx is obviously in his range, so is tons of Qx.

and none of those are raising flop ever. Therefore we bet/fold

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03-05-2011 , 06:58 PM

#22

gsiciliano

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 3,942

I just can´t see a passive player raising a cbet and betting the turn with KJ- in this spot. I can totally see him calling you down with something stupid like K2s or QX, but he´s not taking this aggressive line with anything worse imo.

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03-05-2011 , 06:58 PM

#23

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Well its obviously a sample size of over 20 hands with a disparity of 62/9 so we can kind of determine his tendencies

Your line of thinking is very results oriented. You play poker by taking given information and utilizing it to your maximum advantage.

Any exception you are willing to make has to be EXTREMELY player specific.

Look at the bet sizing on the flop from villain -

It SCREAMS "OMG IM A LAGTARD THAT FLOPPED A MONSTER NOW CALL ME AND DIE"

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03-05-2011 , 07:03 PM

#24

wishiewish

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Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 11,219

How is someone playing %62 of the hands dealt and showing 6.3 AF considered passive?
I expect this guy to raise Qx, Kx pretty often.

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03-05-2011 , 07:05 PM

#25

Systolic

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 21,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by wishiewish

How is someone playing %62 of the hands dealt and showing 6.3 AF considered passive?
I expect this guy to raise Qx, Kx pretty often.

He's calling with a very wide range and raising with disproportionately smaller range

Thats a TON of info for you right there by itself.

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