Quote:
Originally Posted by ZKesic
Maximum that you can expect longterm is around $20/hr while playing. That is if you're always the best player at the table and are crushing. Is that enough for you to make a living?
I’d say depending on the card house, this could change. In many places, the rake + standard of play could result in higher WR than this. I’ve heard of people who pull in $50k a year doing nothing but live 1/2.
Of course, this depends on
1) your opponents not improving in any meaningful way (since this life often means that like 80% of your opponents will be the same handful of regular players)
2) they don’t increase rake (a $1 increase per hand could result in $5-$6k of lost profit)
3) black swan events (yeah a poker player in Florida, Texas, New Hampshire, etc were put off by the early months of the pandemic, but many of those guys are back in action. A California player might still be on the shelf right now, or scrambling to make trips to Arizona or Nevada to play).
Also poker is very much a cyclical game. Because as a live poker player, you have to consider yourself as part of the entertainment industry, giving people action and the rush of winning big pots sometimes. So maybe in 2018, everything is easy and we have 10 full tables going. Move to January 2021, a lot of players can’t really afford to go gamble and we now have 5 tables. And of those that dropped out, it’s disproportionately the weakest players.
So that really brings up one more point
4) the ONLY way to get a “raise” is to move up in stakes
Essentially, there’s a lot of environmental downward pressure on your income (player pools that trend towards improving over time, inflation resulting in playing for less over time as well as higher rake, etc), but the only way to make more is play higher. But sometimes you can’t just play higher. For one, there’s “biggest game in the room” syndrome, which is essentially that when you try to play the biggest game in the room, you see that the level of competition is vastly better than the next stake down. So if you’re living in northern Maine, you might try to play 2/5 and find that half the table runs PIO sims when they get home. And the other is that the worst players often get chased down the stakes; I’ve seen on more than one occasion that a high stakes fish just says f*** it and drops down to smaller games, because they find that the difference isn’t losing at $40 an hour and $80 an hour, it’s more like $40 an hour and $200 an hour.
This all being said, poker can be a very good idea if you’re in a transient situation. Like if you’re a grad student, live 1/2 could be the low key income generator you need.
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