yes there are a fair amount of players I c/r this flop against when I have a big hand exactly because of the fact that c/r'ing necessarily has to look like I'm making a move.

For example, say the board was QQ8 instead of QQ2 why would I "surely" bet this flop every time with 88 for example?

On QQ8 - its even less.

Would you ever do this with QJ.....when there are FD,Str8 draws etc.?

I can sort of see the merit of c/r flop on qq2fl cause there is only one draw.....but QQ8 vs a BTN tag range...meh

well it's pretty simple.

First, figure out the value c/r'ing range of a 12 mass - tabler that cold-called from the blinds which is probably something like 22, QJ (I wouldn't even count all combos of QJ because 1. he prob folding that most of the time if it's offsuit and 2. prob doesn't even c/r that 100% of the time), KQ, AQ.

Second, take out the hands that 1. have you beat but 2. never c/r this flop, in this case JJ,TT.

Third, figure out how often he is c/r the flop and if you know that he is not only c/r for value but as a bluff as well then there are definetely way more combos of bluffs in his range then value hands once he c/r the flop (in a nutshell this is why c/r'ing paired board is kind of bad from a combinatorical point of view but ok from a villain continuation range point of view).

FWIW, 99 vs a c/r in the situation you described is a really strong hand...

I meant he is CO I am BTN - I cold called his PFR.

on a QQ8 draw there are exactly 2 straight draws, JT and T9. With QJ as in your example we actually even have one of that killed because the J fills us up while making the straight for T9.

So what you are basically afraid of here are exactly 4 combos of hands.

Actually, the reason why I prefer c/r on the QQ8 flop with 88 as opposed to 22 on QQ2 flop is the way higher risk of getting coolered by a hand like 33-88 that is only going to put in any more money when it draws out on me but never if it does not.

Opposed to that, if I check the flop with 88 on QQ8 and villain checks back with 44 and hits his miracle card on the turn then I'm going to cooler him for a stack.

lol dont worry about balance in this spot or any spot at 50.
If if u care what ur hand looks like in this spot and lets say i do and i give him some credit for hand reading cool
BUT there are priorities in poker, first u actually need to be accomplishing something with ur bets. OK COOL UR HAND LOOKS LIKE A BLUFF BUT WTFFFFFFF ARE U DOING?
IF IT LOOKS LIKE A BLUFF U NEED TO BE VALUE BETTING!!!!! ARE YOU VALUE BETTING NO!
U HAVE NO IDEA WHAT U ARE DOING AND DODGING IT BY SAYING THAT UR HAND LOOKS LIKE A BLUFF IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE THAT


sorry for the caps it will make u read it twice

No

I'm bluffing. But if my line isn't credible, it's a bad bluff. That's all I'm asking.

I only read that once fwiw.

what hands are u trying to bluff out?
what hands does he have that u can bluff if u say 55 ill lol cause hes not doing this with 55 no equity and u have like 36% vs 55 afaik and u crush his range overall when he checks back. And when he bets if he is bluffing u crush it too cause hes never better 55 on the turn for value and if he is betting 55 as bluffing hes better JThh as bluff too
once ur on the turn its more a question of frequency then anything else

Point taken. So if this is the case, then 3b'ing the flop makes way more sense.

To Threads, Alex

Hero is as OP described.
AK on QQ2 Flushing OOP.

Proposed flop line is to c/r...

Just so I can get a handle on this...

Assumption for villians range being

a) His range is capped because alot of his value range will 3-bet us preflop.

So his range will not contain JJ+ or All AK and we might discount so Axs because he might have 3-bet bluff those types of hands

b) We believe that villian floats abit if we c-bet and we dont expect to fold any better hands if we c-bet.

So we choose to c/r flop because...

We capture what would have been his floats that our now stabbing at the flop e.g. his non-club SCs
And we are bluffing his 33-TT flop value betting range by c/r flop and leading turn on say a A,K, J, T any - and we check and give up on a Q, 2 and other offsuited bricks?
Do we fire the 3rd barrell if say a turns and the river bricks?


Is that what we are thinking by c/r AK?

2nd Question....

We are villian on the BTN with 99...

vs CO open on QQ2 flushing who c/r flop

We bet our 99 for thin value/collect dead money from whiffed overs - we face a check-raise....

are we calling the c/r?
What is our plan if villian leads the turn on -

1) A flushing turn
2) A brick turn
3) A non-club broadway

I'm seriously dieing to know the results.

he wont bet to present a flush, beside you have no read at all so why loose value and check river? you will hate your self if he calls with a big club.

i still like to reraise the flop