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Overpair on wet board-srp Overpair on wet board-srp

07-22-2009 , 02:05 PM
Villain is running at 26/17 and has an agg factor that increases on progressive streets, avg 3.2. Haven't seen him do anything too ridiculous, but I figured his range for the hand were sets or combo draw hands. I wanted to call the flop to see a safe turn for fear of getting 3b shoved on and be in a slightly ahead/way behind situation. I figure the turn shove looks like a semi-bluff and thought he'd call it off lighter than normal.

Questions:
Since it was 3 ways do I just need to raise and call it off on the flop?
Is this a shovable turn? IE, safe?
Is my diagnosis of his range correct?
What is my equity against what you think his range is?

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 194822
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $50.75
Hero (UTG): $56.50
MP: $57.20
CO: $50.00
BTN: $50.00
SB: $103.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with K K
Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, CO calls $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.75) 8 9 4 (3 players)
SB bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75, CO folds

Turn: ($17.25) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $13.50, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $49 all in, SB calls $35.50

River: ($115.25) J (2 players - 1 is all in)
Overpair on wet board-srp Quote
07-22-2009 , 04:50 PM
help?
Overpair on wet board-srp Quote
07-22-2009 , 05:12 PM
I probably raise the flop because he could be donking a draw here and if he isn't, CO could be drawing and you just gave him amazing odds to call. As played, you haven't shown much strength, but that second psb on the turn just screams strength. People don't usually fire the second barrel that size with a combo draw. That looks like a bet that is afraid of flush draws.

I don't hate the way you played this, but I just don't see you getting called by a worse bet like ever on the turn. If you've got a specific read on this guy that says different, then i guess it's ok.
Overpair on wet board-srp Quote
07-22-2009 , 05:19 PM
Raise to $2 pre, raise flop to ~15. maybe c/f turn and river. If you're beat, he'll still be betting imo.
Overpair on wet board-srp Quote
07-22-2009 , 05:47 PM
Good question! I think the proper line would be to just call flop and fold turn. The 6 on the turn doesn't change much and your hand is pretty face up as an overpair or maybe NFD but morelikely the overpair which you can never expect people to fold (so we should).

In the heat of it I would have raised and called off the flop and called it a cooler if he turned over a set. Question, would he really be that worried about us checking through on this board if he had a draw? Maybe he plays more aggro than me but I like to check draws here because I either get to CR or I get a free card. Dunno about him though. If he does check a draw here we can weight his range towards 2pair and sets and find a gut wrenching fold.
Overpair on wet board-srp Quote
07-22-2009 , 06:12 PM
raise flop and get it in if he shoves flop... otherwise get it in on the turn (my standard line)
Overpair on wet board-srp Quote

      
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