The opponent in this match is pretty loose (calling my preflop open 78% of the time when he was in the BB). He was of average aggression, raising my continuation bets 25% of the time. Given how deep we are, I didn't think that 3betting the flop was correct. (do you agree?)

On the turn his bet looks kind of weak, like he is making a blocking bet with a 4 flush or a pair+str8 draw. I'm pretty confident that I'm ahead, but I am not sure if a raise is the best play. There are very few good cards on the river for me that don't complete a draw or put out an overcard out, so I am inclined to raise here and then check down the river. Do I fold to a shove and if I just call this turn do I call any non 8, or heart on the river?

Thanks,
Carlos

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $361.80
BB: $227.50

Pre-Flop: T T dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to $2.95, BB calls $1.95

Flop: ($5.90) 8 3 4 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $8

Turn: ($29.90) 6 (2 Players)
BB bets $14, Hero raises to $60

why are you open raising to 2.95?

I think you can call/call or raise-fold/check. I think your line is best, but I think your raise size is too big.

i like raise/calling, great spot/stack sizes for him to bet/3bet the zillion combo draws he has. there arent that many monsters and most of em dont play it like this so i dont know why we'd ever raise/fold here. I guess just call/call if you give him credit for betting to induce, but dont raise/fold.

Cap, I have seen 2 players at 100NL and below that would get a combo draw in this deep...both of which don't play 100NL anymore. I just don't think your standard player is 3betting the turn here with any kind of hand that we're ahead of. I'd expect our turn raise to get flatted a ****-ton, however.

that would want to make my raise size even bigger(the part about us getting flatted so much), and then since i raise to more i'd like folding even less hehe... i dont have as much experience at 100nl but i just dont see anyone leading that small w/ a set on the turn. its hard to analyze a hu hand in isolation w/ minimal history though so not saying im right. just giving my line of thinking.

saves money on rake

How much would you raise and why?

I think this hand is played well, assuming you can fold to a turn push.


I also think calling the turn is an option if you don't think the villian will c/r 2pair type hands on the river (because you'll lose a bunch when you VB the river in this case)

I call turn, this board is very nasty for TT and hits everything he flats with

If you raise that turn, it's a raise/fold, which I hate because you have so much showdown value and it just turns the hand into a bluff when we raise/fold

This deep we're not playing TT for stacks in a pot that is not 3bet

This is true, but we aren't commited to calling of the final 150ish after we put in the 1st 75 of action.

It doesn't turn the hand into a bluff, it is still a value bet because we expect to get called almost all the time when the villain has a pair+draw, and sometime when they just have a draw plus an overcard or two.

raise folding does

Let me quote from Theory of Poker:

"Bet for Value: to bet in order to be called by a lesser hand. You are betting to make money, not to make your opponents fold."

Thus, it is a value bet when you are +EV vs his CALLING range and a bluff when -EV vs CALLING range. How you are doing vs. his RAISING range is irrelevant.

A clear example would be if you 3 bet the UTG raiser with QQ and then the 90 year old rock behind you 3 bets for the first time in 10 hours. You now fold your hand because you know he only does this w/ AA or KK, but your initial raise was still obviously for value.

well the 90 year old nit wasnt who you were raising for value against so that example doesnt really work but i see what you mean... if our read is that good that we know 100% of the time he is calling draws and shoving sets and better then yeh we can raise/fold but we cant assume that imo... so yeh its not a bluff if we raise fold when someone plays according to that read. i dont believe that to be true tho so once i raise i call, but im probly wrong in this situation since the hand was posted, but i just dont see the monsters taking this line all too often....

i thought about this for a little while, and against basically all 100nl players, i really don't mind this.

I'd be folding to a shove and checking behind basically all rivers.

Thanks for the discussion. I think that this hand basically hinges on how aggressive the opponent is on the turn with his draws. As other posters have mentioned, I think the average 100nler doesn't 3 bet semi bluff on the turn even with the most monster draws. Thus I think the raise fold line is best because they do call your raise most of the time with their big draws. If the river completes any of the obvious draws and they push it should be an easy fold. Against a really agro opponent flatting the turn and making a decision on the river is best, but then you have some added equity form the times that he 3 barrels the river and you snap him off.

In the hand my opponent 3 bet, I called, and he showed 7h5h for the 4 flush on the flop and the str8 on the turn.

I disagree with this being a raise for "value". I don't think it is, how many 100nl nits/passive c/r then lead half pot on a low, connected board w/o a big hand? Passives don't do this with draws imo/experience, they just c/c all the way until they hit.

I think raising this turn really just turns your hand into garbage because 1. He c/r the flop, 2. Fires on the turn in a plz call fashion, you're gettin 3-1 to get to showdown pretty much 3. You have to fold to any shove, which is very possible with the tp/str8's out. Stack sizes are very important here.

Your hand has a ton of showdown value vs the random 8's that may do this. I don't like raising the turn after a c/r on this flop that smashes his pre flop calling range, especially when we only have TT. If we are going to raise the turn, why not 4bet the flop instead of giving out a free card?

If anyone else thinks I'm wayyyy off here please go ahead and let me know.