Can you reduce everything to blockers if you do it right?

I included it because that's what players better than me open.
I don't have strong opinion about opening offsuit aces from the button. I guess it's not profitable if all 3 players play equilibrium but profitable vs typical midstakes pool of today I don't even attempt to solve anything 3 handed so it's just a somewhat educated wild guess.

Seems hard to believe. The 3-betting region is narrow and heavy in Ax/AA. The folding region is very wide and is heavy in 2x, but has a pretty uniform distribution of cards of a low ranks. So the effect of one is more meaningful than the effect of the other. The ace blocker also has a decent effect on the calling region, as most unsuited aces and all suited aces are often called.

The main thing though is that the main negative EV outcome of opening A2o is being 3-bet, so reducing that frequency by X is worth much more than the analogous negative effect of the deuce blocker.

A2o versus napkins opening the button: a study of blockers.

Givens:

1. The button open is 2.5x with 100bb stacks.
2. The SB will 3-bet with 16.1% of hands, and has no flatting range. His 3-betting range is AJo+ KQo 66+ 54s+ 75s+ T7s+ A2s-A5s ATs-AKs.
3. The BB will 3-bet with 12.1% of hands, a range of AJo+ KQo 99+ 54s+ T8s+ A8s+, and will flat with an additional 29.4% of hands, a range of A5o-ATo K8o-KJo Q9o-QJo J9o-JTo T8o-T9o 87o-98o 22-88 A2s-A7s K2s-KTs Q5s-Q9s J6s-J8s T7s-T6s 96s-97s 64s-86s

With napkins:

- SB's 3-bet range is 214/1326 combos
- BB's 3-bet range is 160/1326 combos
- BB's flatting range is 390/1326 combos

Fold equity = (1-(214/1326))*(1-(550/1326)) = 0.4908
Chance of 3-bet = 1-(1-(214/1326))*(1-(160/1326)) = 0.2625

EV of open assuming 0.3 pot equity when called:

EV = 0.4908*1.5 - 0.2625*2.5 + (1-0.4908-0.2625)*(6*0.3 - 2.5)
EV = -0.0927

With A2o:

- SB's 3-bet range is 193/1225 combos
- BB's 3-bet range is 142/1225 combos
- BB's flatting range is 361/1225 combos

Fold equity = (1-(193/1225))*(1-(503/1225)) = 0.4965
Chance of 3-bet = 1-(1-(193/1225))*(1-(142/1225)) = 0.2552

EV of open assuming 0.3 pot equity when called:

EV = 0.4965*1.5 - 0.2552*2.5 + (1-0.4965-0.2552)*(6*0.3 - 2.5)
EV = -0.0067

difference of +0.003 big blinds


tldr: A2o increases your fold equity of the blinds by about 0.6% and reduces your chance of being 3-bet by 0.75%.

Yeah, I was very suprised by this thread, if you were talking about cutoff then we have a thread imo, but from BTN it's not even close imo.

In that case they would make good candidates for 4bet bluffs yeah?

Yeah this is roughly what I meant by "teensy bit". (My BB defense range was a bit wider, fwiw; my reduction % came out to be a bit smaller, but exactly what I forget.)

How could it not be close? And yes it's a good candidate to 4 bet but are you going to 4 bet every Axo? You will have plenty of 4b bluff candidates without A2o and stuff. I said in my original post let's assume there is not a huge fold to 4bet leak here. Of course if someone is folding 70% or something then great. Go for it.

There just have to be situations where it's maybe neutral EV to open in today's environment. And I personally would rather fold if it's zero EV.

Nice post. Add in some SB calls and BB Squeezes and increase BB 3 bet to 16-18 and I imagine it's even less appealing.

My EV analysis was flawed by the way. First of all I made a mathematical mistake:

Second, the 0.3 pot realization I picked was completely arbitrary and likely a lowball. Position and deep stacks with ace high IMO should allow you to win more than 30% of the pot. We can solve for that R value for a breakeven open:

with no blockers:

0 = 0.4908*1.5 - 0.2625*2.5 + (1-0.4908-0.2625)*(5.5*r - 2.5)

r = 39.56%

with A2o:

0 = 0.4965*1.5 - 0.2552*2.5 + (1-0.4965-0.2552)*(5.5*r - 2.5)

r = 37.63%

FWIW, A2o has 49.6% equity vs BB's flatting range.

lol as i was scrolling down this thread all i could think of was "What year is this!"

I open all the aces, all the kings, i open a lot hahahah

Sent from my GT-I9300 using 2+2 Forums

1. It's widely established that a wide button stealing range is just good poker.
2. The modern counter to that is 3 betting light
3a. The best counter to the counter is 4 betting light
3b. Or you can defend by tightening your opening range

I like 3a. with a 25% 4bet bluff fequency


Example:
We open button with 35% range (including all Ax hands)
We value 4bet with top 5%
We can probably flat the next 10%
Then 4bet bluffs = (35-15)*0.25 = 5%

That makes a total defense of 20/35 = 57%
And a 50-50 ratio of bluffs to value 4bets

I think opening 35% is on the very very tight side.

And again, opening Axo in a vacuum is fine I'm sure. I'm just saying if you happen to look left and have 3 bet stats and fold to 4 bet stats and postflop reads, there are def circumstances where it might be neutral or slight loser. Maybe this situation comes up 10% of the time (made that number up.)

The whole point of this thread was to try to figure out what stats / reads would push it to a fold preflop.

Do you like 3a if the BB fold to 4 bet from btn is like 40 something?

P nitti, you forgot 4. Villain 5 bets light

That's why it's important that the value to bluff 4bet is 50-50
Then he can't profitably 5bet us light

40 replies, sick

3832 posts, sick

?. fwiw imo you're 'R' value is higher than 50% from the btn vs a bb range (which is both super wide and oop without initiative), which is the key to this discussion really.

and that is all the strat i will post this month.

You may be right, but it's pretty easy for you to be wrong assuming BB is a nearly optimal player.

All of BB's hands should profit assuming he isn't overdefending. So his flatting range will consist of hands that have a corresponding R value of AT LEAST 1.5/5.5 = 27.27%.

So this means that our entire range vs his worst defend should be no more than R = 72.72%. Since A2o is low in our range presumably it would realize significantly less than that, and since that depends on BB's absolute floor hand, his average R with his range against A2o should be much much more than 27.27%.

In other words, since A2o is a low hand in our range and he presumably has a hand higher than his lowest hand, there are forces pushing the 72.72% figure down and the 27.27% up when we have A2o.

It's very difficult to estimate what BB's average R value will be for his range, but it if you modeled it graphically, his range would be a curve that starts at exactly 27.27% and gradually increases for the bottom 80% of his flatting range, then steeply increases with the pocket pairs until his top hands are realizing significantly more than 100% of the pot. Then you would calculate the area under that curve to get his R, which would then apply to our entire range, and would have to be adjusted further upward when we have A2o.

Hell yeah!!!
We'd love them to defend that wide out of position against a range that's half premiums.

Say our range is AA-99 AK AQ, 44-22 A2s A7o KTo Q9s 98s 75s
We'd have 61% equity vs a 55% defender. Plus the initiative and position

But wouldn't your equity be even higher if say your 4bet bluffs were cut in half (or even less) and you added some extra 4 bet bluffs to another villain who over folds (to keep your overall stats in line)

If the BTN, using a "balanced" and non-nitty 4-betting range, has a 61-39 RvR equity advantage vs. the BB's 4-bet defending range (or even just his 4-bet calling range), the BB is almost certainly employing a horrid strategy.

Moreover, that 4-betting range, along with the 28%+ (!) 4-betting frequency it indicates, is . . . problematic.

Both the BTN and BB are engaged in a vigorous contest of self-mutilation.

Care to give an approach for the BB if such a high 4bet frequency is expoitable?

btw i'm not really following this. is the above your 4 bet range? are you stacking off with 99 and AQ if you are 5 bet? what is your opening range? (I'm assuming you're folding 22-44. not sure why you use these to bluff with - unless you have a spot on read that the guy is calling 4 bets a lot with AQ KQ stuff and not proceeding further? even then I'm not really sure this is a great hand choice).