Thanks, great response. Was playing earlier and this situation came up. Thought it was kind of similar to your example, but probably was just spewing.

My thoughts were that he could never have a 4 here as he wouldnt have called the 3-bet with any 4s (although neither could I really), and the strongest hands he could have on the turn would be TT, and maybe JJ ATs. I had a note on him which said he donked just over half pot on a high paired flop in a 3-bet pot and folded to a raise, so I thought he could definatly be light here at least some of the time and could easily have some sort of mid pocket pair or broadways he decided to float.

On the other hand if I shove I look very strong, and although I cant have a 4 I can easily rep QQ+ which he can never really have better than here (apart from TT). Was this a horrible mis-application of your concepts, or is it just not applicable against average 10NL players?


Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (CO): $18.06
BTN: $10.00
SB: $10.89
BB: $10.08
UTG: $8.88

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with Q A
UTG raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.15) 4 4 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.20, UTG calls $1.20

Turn: ($4.55) T (2 players)
UTG bets $2.40, Hero raises to $6.70, UTG calls $4.28 all in

River: ($17.91) 3 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $17.91
Hero shows Q A (two pair, Fours and Threes)
UTG shows 5 5 (two pair, Fives and Fours)
UTG wins $16.72
(Rake: $1.19)

I think that HH isn't exactly the same, mostly because it's a 3-bet pot as opposed to a single raised pot.

Your 3-bet pre is a little meh (I'm generally not a fan of 3-betting wide an UTG open)

but besides that, I'm probably checking behind on the flop, because the vast majority of hands he's calling your 3-bet pre with (although 55 is kinda lol for him to call with) aren't folding to your c-bet. All pp's (except 22) are definitely not folding that flop since they're basically all overpairs or sets / quads, and his other range of mostly large broadways are probably peeling one.

Since PP's aren't folding, and neither are his broadways, we need to bet/bet flop/turn to get him to fold most of his range, whereas we have good equity against his pairs, and dominate most of his broadways.

As played however, when he c/c's the flop and leads the turn, he's unlikely to be bluffing, (similar to my hand where he call/call/bet the river) but in 3-bet pots he typically gets better pot odds on a call than he would in a single raised pot. Given that he's not even full stack and he just put in > 1/2 his stack in, I'm probably folding the turn as played

Why?

All the good players open fold QQ pre don't you know?

Couple of Questions.

The 98s hand at ~16min, why do you not put him on a hand such as AQ, AJ, or JJ there? I suppose with AQ he might not value bet the river there so I can understand that. Were these just such a small part of his range that you thought a crai would be profitable?

And the last hand you played, can you explain why you 3bet the flop. Is it because his value range is just so narrow there?

AJ is the only hand that would make sense. AQ should CB the river iyam.
JJ folds the turn. My assumption was that he bets the river too often because that's typically what people do when they get checked to

His value range is really small considering he probably 3-bets QQ+, so he's repping like the other 2 sets, and maybe some FD's. I can feasibly represent everything like combo draws, sets, AQ and QQ+ whereas he kinda can't.

The problem with that hand though is that people tend to play straight forward post-flop and people are probably not raising the flop with air as much as I initially wanted him to (i.e. he's probably folding most of his range, calling with hands like mid-top pairs, FDs, and raising only his really strong hands)

It was 5 handed so he was actually UTG+1, and he was playing 38/26 so i figured he was opening fairly wide. I guess thats another reason to flat though. I dont think I play too well (very weak tight anyway) after calling pf, so Im trying to 3-bet more of my range. This wouldnt be a bad spot to call though.

Checking behind the flop probably would have been better. I see what your saying, I didnt think about how our hand matched up to his at the time, just if his would ever fold. Anyway thanks for the answer again, definatly making me think about ranges more!

I also think the concept of "hands that are c/f the turn are most likely c/f the river'" that you mentioned a few times in the vid is fairly important and is something I never really applied before

Don't forget hands that can only call 1 street
Something I couldn't exactly explain a lot / at all because I couldn't play OOP in a single raised pot

Consider...TAG BU opens we flat in BB with XY

Flop comes A2Tr.
We check looking to C/R with almost ATC, TAG checks back

This should give you license to bet turn/river with ATC because he'll call turn like always, but fold the river

Ksight, thx for the vid. Really helped me to think further then i'm sometimes would.

61

<3 this. just watched it, i was skeptical that this vid would be worthwhile without any value spots but it really helped me a ton in looking at fold equity, there's more then i think generally. (but i play 10NL so it's probably not as applicable there as versus semi-thinking players on 50NL.

Nice video. Eye opening to a 10NL nit.
Thanks for sharing.

cant download this video. link is dead?

nope, you fail at the computers

hmm now it works fine =)

couldnt dl either =/

link works now. lold at your new avatar Ligic