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01-17-2011 , 02:16 PM

#36851

Jdwarriors5

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 4,716

FPP, I want Tomic over Chardy -111 my $56 vs. ur $50. LMK if we're booked

Quote

01-17-2011 , 02:20 PM

#36852

Jdwarriors5

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 4,716

I want Pitt ML -221 over Cuse to win $50. Regs QTB

Quote

01-17-2011 , 02:33 PM

#36853

ktulu22

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by agdci981

As the best Steelers fan on 2+2

2nd best, fool. And I am changing my avatar (first time ever) in honor

Quote

01-17-2011 , 02:49 PM

#36854

ktulu22

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,561

And speaking of needing money on a game to watch sports, this NBA game on ESPN is brutal. No emotion from any of the players, any of the fans, any of the announcers...there's honestly more competitiveness in a pickup game at the local YMCA. Crap NBA regular season games are hard to watch even with money on them.

Quote

01-17-2011 , 03:19 PM

#36855

pants40

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 654

Kermit,

5 pt teaser

Hornets -3.5
Hawks -4.5

100 to win 91

Parlay

Celtics ML -150
Pistons ML +162
Rockets ML -195
Thunder ML +166

25 to win 414

Quote

01-17-2011 , 03:41 PM

#36856

squashington

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,389

Quote:

Originally Posted by ktulu22

well, it's noon on a monday. watching rose is entertaining anytime, imo.

better than watching 5 20 y/o's who will never sniff the NBA pass it around the perimeter for 30 seconds and chuck a long 2.

Quote

01-17-2011 , 04:05 PM

#36857

CHRONICFEVER

Goes hard in the paint

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 13,470

Quote:

Originally Posted by squashington

well, it's noon on a monday. watching rose is entertaining anytime, imo.

better than watching 5 20 y/o's who will never sniff the NBA pass it around the perimeter for 30 seconds and chuck a long 2.

YES but its not even a sweat when the line is -5 on memphis and they can't hit a shot. but yes rose is amazing, but this is the worst game I've seen in a while.

Quote

01-17-2011 , 04:08 PM

#36858

Cusipz

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,408

welcome back to our old school reg mdb77, he's now on SD! (mikedb7)

Quote

01-17-2011 , 04:15 PM

#36859

warchant09

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 4,579

kermit

parlay

over 150.5 kst @ mizz
over 205 nets @ warriors

risking $200

Quote

01-17-2011 , 05:20 PM

#36860

ktulu22

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,561

Quote:

Originally Posted by squashington

well, it's noon on a monday. watching rose is entertaining anytime, imo.

better than watching 5 20 y/o's who will never sniff the NBA pass it around the perimeter for 30 seconds and chuck a long 2.

Disagree completely. This Nova-Uconn game is much more entertaining, for the simple reason that the players actually give the appearance that they care if they win or lose. NBA players don't care until the last few minutes of the game unless it's the playoffs or a big reg season matchup. I'd rather watch a pickup game where both sides are going balls to the wall opposed to the best players in the world going at 25%. To each his own though.

Quote

01-17-2011 , 05:46 PM

#36861

Jdwarriors5

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 4,716

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jdwarriors5

I want Pitt ML -221 over Cuse to win $50. Regs QTB

Closed. Got it on SD

Quote

01-17-2011 , 05:55 PM

#36862

Jdwarriors5

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 4,716

Kermit, parlay $50 to win $103:

-LAC/Ind 2nd half under 97.5
-Clippers 2nd half -189

Quote

01-17-2011 , 06:25 PM

#36863

Jdwarriors5

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 4,716

Kermit, parlay for $25:

-Hawks 2nd half -9
-NJ/GSW 2nd half over 100.5

Quote

01-17-2011 , 06:38 PM

#36864

ktulu22

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,561

You my boy Kemba

Quote

01-17-2011 , 07:30 PM

#36865

warchant09

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 4,579

:00.6 Sacramento Kings SAC
Shooting foul on Tyreke Evans

nice life for you guys on that under 62-53 at halftime and you get a foul with .6 seconds left to avoid overtime and win by 2 lmfao

Quote

01-17-2011 , 08:08 PM

#36866

Kylen83

banned

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 677

Kermit
5 pt teaser
Pitt -1.5
Baylor +8.5
to win $50

Quote

01-17-2011 , 08:15 PM

#36867

MR GOODBAR

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 11,714

kermit,

celts -3
kings +117

37.50 to win 125.25

Last edited by MR GOODBAR; 01-17-2011 at 08:23 PM. Reason: these are the kings from los angeles, not sacramento

Quote

01-17-2011 , 09:12 PM

#36868

RickOSU

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,956

cross-post from hsnl

hey guys, a friend of mine wants to do a parlay of sorts on who will make the super bowl + the margin of victory.

he wants to bet $100 that the superbowl will be jets/bears AND that the bears will win by 13 or more. He also wants a separate bet with the same stipulations, but in this one, that the bears win by EXACTLY 13 points. yes, he's a lunatic but he really wants the bet so i told him i'd ask around and see if anyone would take it.

what type of odds do you guys think would be fair (obv not fair in the vig-free sense, but fair for both the player and bookie)?

also, would anyone (kermit?) like to book these?

Quote

01-17-2011 , 09:19 PM

#36869

stass13

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,340

Quote:

Originally Posted by RickOSU

like what odds does he want is the question...

Quote

01-17-2011 , 09:31 PM

#36870

Cusipz

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,408

Rough calcs based on current ML odds of champs games, and then bears -3.5 favs in superbowl, using pinny alt-nfl high line at around +280 for -7.5, say 2.5x for it for -13, I get around 43-1 for Bears -13 over Jets in SB.

Exactly 13 would easily be 250-1.

But to give incentive for someone to book, prob 25-1 and 150-1

Quote

01-17-2011 , 09:33 PM

#36871

warchant09

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 4,579

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cusipz

you are a math wiz imo

Quote

01-17-2011 , 09:41 PM

#36872

RickOSU

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,956

Quote:

Originally Posted by stass13

like what odds does he want is the question...

he was looking for 40 to 50 - 1 on the 13 or more bet. At least 100-1 on the exactly 13 bet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cusipz

yeah i feel the same way about the 13+ bet, probably around 50-1 is fair. But landing on exactly 13 i'd think would be over 1000-1. when i asked pro-style about it, he did the math and thinks it's around 2000-4500 to 1 without factoring in the defenses/matchups and basing it purely on average nfl winning margins. but imo based on the matchups, i.e: elite defenses + averageish offenses, you'd think this game is much more unlikely to be decided by such large margins.

Quote

01-17-2011 , 09:49 PM

#36873

RickOSU

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,956

so i just tried to do the math, i'm probably way off but whatever.. so i took the pinny vig-free ml's, converted them to win %, based on these, jets and bears are roughly 35.5% to win their respective games. so .355 x .355 = .126 = 12.6% to have that superbowl matchup.

then for the margin of victory i looked here: http://www.marasoft.com/nfl-margin-victory.html. found that historically, a game being decided by exactly 13 is 3.13% (do i need to cut this in half since we're only betting that the BEARS win by 13?). so anyway i took .126 and multipled it by .0313 and got .00394 which is .39%.. that converted to a ML is +255xx so 255-1.

did i do that right?

Quote

01-17-2011 , 09:55 PM

#36874

Cusipz

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,408

Need to cut in half, although actually more than half as favs make up higher percentage of the exact 13 games, and bears will be favs in that sb matchup. I get around 400:1.

Quote

01-17-2011 , 09:59 PM

#36875

RickOSU

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 1,956

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cusipz

Need to cut in half, although actually more than half as favs make up higher percentage of the exact 13 games, and bears will be favs in that sb matchup. I get around 400:1.

tyty sir. so i'm thinking a fair line (book line) would be around 250 to 1?

Quote

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