I dont know why i play this stupid game. For 20 years ive been playing and never had this degree of runbad. It was so bad I took 3 mos off. Came back had a couple good sessions, made 9.5 buyins in one session, and now over the next 3 days lost all that and much more. Runbad just continuing over and over again with no end in sight. Its been like 8 mos total now. Statistical improbabilities just the norm now. I already know whats gonna happen before it does.

Sorry for the rant, I just needed to write it down, noone to talk about it with and its so frustrating.

Before the solver era I was a Nl100 Reg and I quit the game after losing almost all my bankroll in a downswing where I was 70 buy-in under EV. I understand what you mean. Right now I am studying and playing but doing it for fun and to keep my mind elastic.

If it's not your job, move down in stakes, play and enjoy the game in your free time.

I personally enjoy the community of the online poker even if this is not what I am going to do for living

Google says the odds of making a pair on the flop is 32.43%. I probably am lifetime not evening out there. When I played HUSNGs I remember one session I might have played 120 hands in one game and made like 2 pairs or something ridiculous while running similarly in the rest of my games. So yeah, I get the struggle. Wouldn't surprise me if there were good players at the high stakes who have been helped a lot by run good and not experiencing horribad runs.

There's probably a significant amount of people that have the skills to do well in this game but get crushed by runbad early on and get frustrated and walk away.

Yea for sure there are high stakes players that just run incredibly for long periods of time. I find it very hard to move down and have fun or take it seriously is any capacity because ive played at 100nl for a long time now. I was very close to 200nl when this started. At this rate ill be back at 10 within a week.

The game has about lost its fun for me. I feel like I cannot win anymore, its just impossible.

Im running so bad I cant even catch a turn card that I can barrel on when its over half the deck. Its like every turn is just the nut worst card in the deck and its hand after hand after hand. And villains just hit every flop, every flush completes, every time they are dominated the 3 outer comes, i get KK vs AA over and over, and I whiff on every open ended straight flush draw. Then I get dealt aces and its folded around to me.

Ive played for 20 years, this is just absolutely bonkers. Ive run bad before, but to have it at this level, leave for 3 mos and come back and its still happening is insane.

I believe that. Theres no way you can move up in stakes and be successful when that happens. Sometimes no amount of skill can overcome what the cards are doing.

And ive lost 5 stacks in the last 3 days purely due to saying theres no way he can have this hand again because ive had my head beat in so continuously. I cant say I havent made some mistakes but its hard to keep making hero folds over and over. At some point I decide to take a stand and find out, nope they really just have it every time.

Obviously you should take in account this that will help you to razionalize things



A 5 BB/100 winning player will have a loosing stretch of 10 buy in with a 55% of probablity. Basically loosing 10 buy in it's not even a downswing, it's just normal

So I just joined a CFP and you get partnered up with another new player to the stable. We are both at 100nl and started yesterday. He's up 25 buyins in 4k hands and I'm around break even after 2k hands.

Variance is very real.

Moment of zen

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 1(BB)
HERO ($212.46) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 24.3% | AGG: 37.3% | Flop Agg: 43.9% | Turn Agg: 33.4% | River Agg: 36.1% | 3-Bet: 11.5% | 4-Bet: 15% | Fold to 4-Bet: 59.2% | Hands: 211873]
BTN ($24.14) [VPIP: 71.4% | PFR: 25.7% | AGG: 12.5% | Hands: 35]
SB ($211.76) [VPIP: 18% | PFR: 12% | AGG: 50% | Flop Agg: 80% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3-Bet: 8% | Fold to 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 100% | Hands: 51]
BB ($100) [VPIP: 17.5% | PFR: 15% | AGG: 41.7% | Hands: 40]
UTG ($111.06) [VPIP: 33% | PFR: 23.9% | AGG: 31.6% | Hands: 88]
HJ ($105.31) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 20% | Hands: 28]

Dealt to Hero: A A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $2, BTN Folds, SB Raises To $12, BB Folds, HERO Raises To $30, SB Calls $18

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.98 effective]
Flop ($61): K 5 J
SB Checks, HERO Bets $20 (Rem. Stack: $162.46), SB Raises To $53 (Rem. Stack: $128.76), HERO Calls $33 (Rem. Stack: $129.46)

Turn ($167): K 5 J 6
SB Bets $128.76 (allin), HERO Calls $128.76 (Rem. Stack: $0.70)

River ($424.52): K 5 J 6 7




On the positive side, you do study more (at least I think most people do) when you are running bad so you improve more when that happens. Don't let your suffering go to waste.

Is 5bb/100 a good winrate at 100NL? Just curious as to what is possible at that stake.

I was thinking 40 buy-ins for a bankroll but it looks like you need more like 100ish if you're winning 5bb/100.

Thank you for posting that, that does help a lot actually. So im on a 30 buyin downswing and ive been playing for 20 years so it was only inevitable and not that out of ordinary. Just sucks when i was so close to moving up.

yes.

This is all pretty ridiculous and defeatist. All high stakes players run good on average? That might've been true in 2004 where people were just trying to degen and bink a MTT, but nowadays the vast majority of people who play highstakes have played MILLIONS of hands at the point where it's would be virtually impossible for them to be mediocre and just run good.

I mean, really, "Theres no way you can move up in stakes and be successful when that happens", it's a 30bi downswing, you will get through with it and you will become a better player for it or you will give up, it's really your choice. But it's not that serious. I've probably played only 400-500k lifetime and have encountered 2 40bi downswings, felt like **** but got through it.

Isn't the mantra of poker players "don't waste your time thinking about things you can't control"??

On a lighter note @yanasaurbbq, I'm sure you will get out of your downswing if you put in the volume and study, I'm rooting for you to succeed, but mindset is something everyone has to work on

One of the best things I've done for my poker mental health and general attitude towards the game has been avoiding 2+2 LOL. Just stopping in after months away and a number of these posts have depressed me. Remember we have to both understand and accept the realities of the game. And the reality is even over several hundred thousand of hands there's a ton of variance and all kinds of things can happen. You can bitch and be pissed off and freak out about it, or you can just keep working on your game, playing your best, and move forward in a positive direction, it's all up to you.

Thanks Doodoo, yes this is the kind of stuff lol. One memorable hand, like this one I 4bet w aces and guy calls it oop w 44 and hits a 4 Q Q flop so all the money got in of course

Thank you. I appreciate that. I know im complaining but I didnt mean to be that way. Some of these responses have been very helpful, including yours. I just was having trouble putting this into context whats been happening and my frustration was eating me up bad.

62.5 BB/100 seems a good winning rate lol

Variance is a thing, but more importantly is most believe they are winning players when they aren't. Variance is a convenient excuse.

Think of poker like reading a novel with a happy ending. Some chapters are going to kick the living **** out of the protagonist and they're lucky to survive. But we know, as the omnipotent reader, that eventually this brutal chapter will end and the protagonist will only be stronger because of it.

What do you think the most predominant flop texture is say over a decent hand sample versus millions of hands? We know that three of a kind is pretty rare just like the straight flush draw. I'm guessing the most common, if there's such a thing, is a single high card rainbow but perhaps there's a study or a way to run it in the tracking software to find out what the most common flop texture is or isn't?

A high, 2-toned, medium connectedness?

Wouldnt it have to be 1 high, 1 mid, 1 low and rainbow just purely based on odds?

Do you guys think it's worth grinding the micros on ACR? Some of the feedback that I've gotten is that there are a ton of regs on there. It's either that or nothing for me right now as I can't play on PokerStars Ontario (ID issue). I can always just not play until I can get on PokerStars Ontario.

Like even if I got really good is it worth it if the vast majority of players are playing competent ABC poker?

Depends on what you mean by is it worth it. Is it worth it until you can get on Pokerstars Ontario just to hone your game and work on skills? Absolutely. Is it worth it as a money making venture? Almost certainly not.

I was thinking of depositing for 2NL and trying to reach 100NL (or higher). I'd likely be switching to PokerStars Ontario once I get my ID. That might take a few months so during that time I'd be grinding on ACR. Just estimating but that would probably mean grinding 2NL and 5NL on ACR and switching around the time I made it to 10NL. I guess it's worth it since I don't have any other option.

Does anyone think it's at all worth it to grind ACR at the higher stakes (100NL+) even if you have access to a site like PokerStars Ontario? Are the games that much tougher?

Sorry for all the questions.

Walkby, you are choosing between one of the softest and most legit sites in the world and one of the toughest and shadiest sites in the world. This should be a pretty straightforward decision.