zhugel1ang is both incredibly good and starts tables with regs, but doesnt play hu

so why the hate

someone help me with basic algebra please.

i'm trying to get the breakeven FE needed for following spot:
BTN opens to 3bb, hero 3bets to 10bb from the SB, BB makes it 23bb, BTN folds and hero ships for 100bb eff. Assume we have 33% Equity vs villains callingrange.

using 0 = x*pot + (1-x)*(-100*0.67+100*0.33) where x is the breakeven-FE, I get x = 0.48

However, using http://dailyvariance.com/fold-equity-calculator/ , I get 38% FE needed to break even. please point out my mistake.

x(36)+(1-x)((.33)(113)+(.66)(-90))=0

x=38.04%

your mistake is you are taking into account the original 10bb you raised; when BB 4bets you, the 10bb you put in is a "sunk" cost so to say, should not be included in the amount you are risking when shoving;

in addition, the money you make when shoving is equal to original 3bb button raise + 10bb raise by you + 23 bb 4bet by BB + 77 bb call of shove by BB=113bb

Just think logical

67% you lose 100bb, EV = -67bb
33% of the time you win 100bb, EV = +33bb

So on avg you lose -34bb when called.

Pot is 23+10+1 = 34bb, so you win 34bb every time he folds.

Hmm, so it should have to work around 50% of the time.

Not sure why daily variance shows 38%

siiiiiiiiiiiigggggggggggghhhhhhhhhh

I forgot how bad epic runbad feels. I've had 3 supersick run bads in my career. The first one was the worst emotionally because I didn't know what was going on (went from a 30kish roll to about $1600 before i pulled it back about 4 years ago) 2nd one 70 buyins under ev in 70k hands, but this one is proving to be the mother of them all now in terms of EV. Disappointing and annoying times. Just when I thought it was over i run another 5 under ev today. And I dont care what anyone says, seeing all the money going in with the best hand and losing time and time again is the worse/most annoying/calculable form of runbad there is (coolers are just not as annoying)

ur neglecting your initial 3bet sizing; logically, think about an extreme case when we 3bet minraise to 6bb versus 3betting to 20bb ; the latter case we would need much smaller FE because each pot when BB folds to a shove is much larger and the amount we are risking on a shove in turn will be smaller as our initial 3bet took a larger percentage of our stack

But don't we just want to know how often we need him to fold to a shove after we've already 3bet him? I mean, what sizing we chose for our 3bet shouldn't affect our decision to 5bet or not, as long as he folds often enough, we should 5bet, right? I mean, obv it's gonna be -EV to 3bet to 20bb's and then ship, but it could be worse to 3bet to 20bb and then fold... (assuming he folds often enough to a 5bet to make it profitable), right?

I could (and probably am) be very off here though

bolded part is incorrect. the sizing of our 3bet affects our decision to 5bet because, as shown by my previous posts, it affects the amount of fold equity needed for it to be break even (this assumes a simplification that our equity vs his range is constant regardless of 3bet size which is impractical in actual game play)

your second part is correct that it could be worse to 3bet to 20bb and then fold versus shipping it in. As a realistic simplification, if you get 4bet when u 3bet to 20bb, lets say ur FE is 0 (it will be versus any non-brain dead individual at 100bb stacks). With these 100bb effective stacks, if you shove, you need a shade under 40% equity to be break even (80/203). If your equity versus his range is under this, it will obv be a higher EV decision to fold and if ur equity is higher then this, it will be better to ship ur stack in then it is to fold.

Consider two scenarios. [He folds] and [he calls]. The decision point is after he 4-bets.

He folds:

You win what's currently in the pot, which is 33.5bb (his 4-bet of 23bb plus your 3-bet of 10bb plus the small blind).

EV [he folds] = 33.5bb

He calls:

You'll have 33% equity in a 200bb pot (probably 197bb due to rake, but since that varies between sites and number of players we'll leave it at 200bb). So your average stack size after getting the money in will be 200 * 0.33 = 66bb.

Your current stack size is 90bb (since you 3-bet 10bb) and your expected stack size when getting it in is 66bb. Thus your EV of getting it in is 66 - 90 = -24bb.

EV [he calls] = -24bb.

Complete EV calculation:

Consider x how often he has to fold. And (1 - x) how often he calls.

EV = x(EV [he folds]) + (1 - x)(EV [he calls])

EV = x(33.5) + (1 - x)(-24)

We're looking for the break-even scenario, so EV = 0.

x(33.5) + (1 - x)(-24) = 0
33.5x - 24 + 24x = 0
57.5x = 24
x = ~0.42

I tried inputting this into the link and you must have typed it in wrong. Current pot size is 33.5, amount hero shoves is 90 and amount villain calls is 77. That gives you 41.57% which is about what I got.

the method you employed is nice but you made some small errors which include:

1. size of pot when you take it down with 4bet is 36 not 33.5 (we are the sb so we dont add .5 and you forgot button's 3bb in calc)

2. size of pot when all in is 203bb (include button's 3bb)*1/3=67 2/3. Subtract 90 from this you get -22 1/3 bb's.

so equation should look like x(36) +(1-x)(-22 1/3)=0

solving for x=38.3%

This cannot be correct. I mean, he 4bets TO 23bb, not an additional 23bb. So it's 23bb + 10bb + 1bb = 34bb

guess u didn't read the hand, button opens for 3bb, we put in 10bb, bb puts in 23bb, 3+10+23= 36

I misread the hand. I thought it was a standard 3-bet spot BTN versus BB. I'll come back with correct calculations.

oooooh, thought it was standard SB vs BTN. My bad

Corrected with correct action:

Consider two scenarios. [He folds] and [he calls]. The decision point is after he 4-bets.

He folds:

You win what's currently in the pot, which is 36bb (his 4-bet of 23bb plus your 3-bet of 10bb plus the 3bb open).

EV [he folds] = 36bb

He calls:

You'll have 33% equity in a 203bb pot (probably 200bb due to rake, but since that varies between sites and number of players we'll leave it at 203bb). So your average stack size after getting the money in will be 203 * 0.33 = ~67bb.

Your current stack size is 90bb (since you 3-bet 10bb) and your expected stack size when getting it in is 67bb. Thus your EV of getting it in is 67 - 90 = -23bb.

EV [he calls] = -23bb.

Complete EV calculation:

Consider x how often he has to fold. And (1 - x) how often he calls.

EV = x(EV [he folds]) + (1 - x)(EV [he calls])

EV = x(36) + (1 - x)(-23)

We're looking for the break-even scenario, so EV = 0.

x(36) + (1 - x)(-23) = 0
36x - 23 + 23x = 0
59x = 23
x = ~0.39

The correct answer is 39% and the link also confirms it with values 36, 90, 77, 0.67 and 0.33 (in order).

hey who has a very good wireless card for grinding pokers on the road?

both verizon and at&t have now failed me.

i'm very dumb with this stuff...

so in basic spots... 3Bb --> 10bb ---> 23BB... and you jam for a total of 100bb.... you need him to fold only 33% of the time to be breakeven?

BTW, happy thanksgiving everyone!

edit: would enjoy/appreciate one of you math gurus to talk to me a little about 4b/5b math. PM/Aim me or whatever if interested.

corbin it depends on your equity when called, 33% is going to be on the low end

33% is quite a bit in a 4bet pot too. High 4bet guys are probably some where around 5-6%, and stacking off with what 2%?

a 6% 4bet range is very high overall but i doubt it's that high in a BTNvsSB situation.. I don't have stove on this computer but TT+, AQ+ is what like 4% or so?

yea, my mistake.

TT+, AQ+ is 4.7%.

lol my god. I actually thought this was you at first and said to myself, "I don't care how much money any of these other poker players have, if they look and act like this guy they deserve it."

This guy is some kind of mutant hybrid nerd.

general consensus on thanksgiving? fish will be more or less likely to play? ..right now not lookin so good.

I'd like to lol at my first few hundred posts on 2p2. is this possible?

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/ubbthreads.php