All that matters is that I got a sick live tell off a guy the other day and used it to successfully herocall him. Literally dozens and dozens of dollars in value.

first time ive railed 10 20 and 510 tables but dam i win flips putting on a clinic

wow that's brutal

i'm not saying you're wrong, but how do you know this?

do u guys know how taxes work w/investments? if u buy a S&P500 index fund do u have to cash some of the investment out every year it makes money to pay taxes?

no you pay when you sell

1) Absolutely, but you have to have a lot of experience with it. If you're playing with scrubs it doesn't matter but if you have some legit live badasses at your table (Ivey, Juanda, Cunningham) then you're probably best hiding inside a hoodie and making all your bets gentle and uniform. With my experience I can tell the obvious stuff, but not the subtle stuff that people like Ivey know subconsciously I guess

2) Bad players do it because they are bad and think being a gangster makes them a winning poker player. There are dozens of these people in live 10ks, doesnt matter if they are Bax/Sheets horse #74 or some scandi. I would venture a guess that since your big live tournaments were in Europe then you were more inclined to run into some fake-ass euro gangsters. rest assured its a lot nittier in the states, tho still soft.

Good players like Ivey do it because a majority of players don't know how to counter it preflop or postflop, and the minority of players that *do* know how to counter it stay out of your way.

As such, the fake gangsters get torn up in variance and either bink something and punt their winnings in other stuff or they just never do anything in the first place and are the live tagfish. And the real legit-ass gangsters accumulate so much before showdown that they have monster ROIs.

It is laughable what live image does for you. I have had middle-aged men at my table actually play competent against each other for a fullring setting, and then someone like Antonio Esfandiari sits down and all of their VPIP's get cut in half if Antonio is ever in the pot. And thats just Antonio, who I assume plays nitty solid. Someone splashing and never having anyone 3bet them, geeeeez I would love that but you see I'm just another quiet hoodie kid.

It's toughest for the in-between gangsters, the people who actually are good at poker but by virtue of being under the age of 28 and unrecognizable will get zero respect from anyone, as such you either hype up the variance yourself and let it ride or be a gigantic nit and coast for a low variance ROI thats probably half the ROI of the Ivey-esque folk.

Durrrr was probably an inbetween gangster for awhile but then because Ivey-level, I suggest hamming it up for ESPN cameras as well as any other media outlet as soon as possible if you can put the fear of god into the average-joes and bump up your live ROI

to all the haters... all i can say is 40 buyin day.

ship it...

Enjoy my money Flips ! (11K$)

wheres my commission corbs

iirc you only pay taxes when you sell and make a profit.

most brokerage sites will allow you to download files that can be imported into turbotax and similar software to calculate stuff for you automatically

The hedge fund thing is true. People generally take a snapshot of firms that are around at a certain time. Funds that go under before the snapshot generally do not appear in summaries.

As for how 8% can't be guaranteed, by "guarantee", I assume if they don't get to 8%, they give you 8% (and not say, ship you a cheezburger and say "sorry - our bad"). Basically, there is no "risk-free" ways to make 8% in the current market environment. So anytime they don't make 8%, they go busto with your money.

closest thing i've seen to a guaranteed 8%:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/fun...FundIntExt=INT

it says:
"The fund primarily invests in GNMA securities, which are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government and typically offer a higher yield than U.S. Treasuries. In addition to other bond market risks, the fund is subject to prepayment risk. When mortgage refinance activity is high, the yield on the fund is likely to decrease."

i would would have expected a big drawdown in '07 or '08 but it seems to have been unaffected by the crash. if anyone understands why this is please educate me


total bond market index seems to be a "guaranteed" 7%:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/fun...FundIntExt=INT

updated reading list?

seriously? because something returned around 8% in the time period shown it is guaranteed 8% a year?

"The performance data shown represent past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data cited."

The "risk-free" rate is considered what US treasury bonds are yielding.

http://www.treas.gov/offices/domesti...te/yield.shtml

The 8% number is just so ridiculous considering you can borrow money for much cheaper, so why would a company offer 8% when they can just borrow it cheaper?

/end finance discussion

thats ****ing disgusting man. doesnt seem fair how someone can get **** on over and over..... better luck in the future

I enjoyed this one, also not even sure what the best flop line is, think raising is the lesser of 3 evils.

$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com


Stacks:
UTG kmoneyk10 ($1,169)
CO DA BUG MAN1 ($632.75)
BTN Hiro Gambler ($542)
SB zexwell02 ($1,012)
BB Hero ($1,637)


Pre-Flop: ($15, 5 players) Hero is BB J J
3 folds, zexwell02 calls $5, Hero raises to $40, zexwell02 raises to $120, Hero calls $80


Flop: 8 6 9 ($240, 2 players)
zexwell02 bets $140, Hero raises to $310, zexwell02 goes all-in $892, Hero calls $582


Turn: J ($2,024, 2 players, 1 all-in)


River: J ($2,024, 2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $2,024
zexwell02 shows a straight, Jack high
10 7
Hero shows four of a kind, Jacks
J J

Hero wins $2,021 (net +$1,009)

zexwell02 lost $1,012

I assume this is one of the Aussie clones. They always flop the nuts vs me in the most ******ed spots, tilts the hell out of me.

He's actually Russian, even better.

ul irishman. i'm 40-50 buyins below EV in the last few weeks too. it sucks.

run better

ship me some of your brit-luck so I can ship the 1 milli guarantee today

I feel you, here's my last 300k hands (would be worse but I'm running like 20 buyins above all-in EV this month). I just checked HEM and I am at +$130 for the entire year at online nlhe cash.

thats almost a brag superflous. you must have serious control, when I run really badly under EV its always my EV is zero and im down a bajillion cus i tilt like hell

Would not be surprised if all of the Aussie/Russia/Portugese clones are Russian :/