Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge
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My mind wasn't exactly open, but it wasn't closed, either. If I had seen convincing evidence for AGW, I would have changed my mind. Instead, what I found was convincing evidence of fraud. There is no doubt in my mind that I could convince any jury that the AGW people have rigged their data.
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Saying you spent a few weeks digging into the material is far more convincing to me than saying "I could convince a jury to believe a particular viewpoint". Juries are notoriously bad at evaluating science.
Lots of climate change science is happening now and will continue to happen in the years to come. If I was not so impatient, I would gladly take the "AGW is real" side of a prop bet that used as it's criteria some peer reviewed journal basis for evaluating scientific consensus 10 years from now. Alas, I am impatient.
I could, like you, spend 2 weeks investigating the issue personally but what would be the point? If AGW is real (I believe it is) then we are pretty much screwed as it is politically unviable to deal with the issue. "Enjoy your life today, pity your grand children, buy guns and bullets" is probably the most practical advice.
If you look at AGW from a poker perspective and the best opinion you can find is that AGW is "plausible" then the EV difference of various courses of action (e.g. doing nothing vs spending lots of money to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) is huge. Also, if the current scientific views are more or less correct then if we wait to become scientifically certain before acting we will be pot committed to massive change. Like I said, buy bullets and guns.