Are you calling this river? Turn bluff k?

I think we have a good combo to x/r turn, maybe it's a bit loose. Guessing we can't do this often enough on the flop to justify. This (particular) river gives me IBS.


PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 256 BB
SB: 273.6 BB
Hero (BB): 194.5 BB
UTG: 99.8 BB
MP: 147.7 BB
CO: 100.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A J

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) T 2 Q
Hero checks, UTG bets 3.1 BB, Hero calls 3.1 BB

Turn: (12.7 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, UTG bets 6.1 BB, Hero raises to 18.3 BB, UTG calls 12.2 BB

River: (49.3 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, UTG bets 39 BB, Hero??

Don't like the raise ott. As played fold the river.

Not sure about the river. Without any stats or reads on the villain you would have to make this decision based on how often people bluff in these games.

But I will say that the turn x/r is terrible imo, and it sets up the river to be a tough spot. Villain will rarely fold, paying 12.2 to win 49.3 BB. There are too many made hands or single-spade hands that will always call, so this just bloats the pot with the worst hand. It also gives villain the opportunity to re-raise all in, which would be a disaster for your hand because you have decent equity & really don't want to get pushed off your hand. You're too deep to shove the turn, so I think c/c is the only reasonable play there.

Fair.

I thought his sizing was sus tbh. Thinking KQ+ would bet bigger. Half pot turn barrel from a maybe fish is often a weak pair or weak foldable draw. And I'm not sure getting 3bet is too bad because it's a somewhat easy fold (calling with nuts + best draws)? I wanted to push while he looked weak, but when they call we just want to get to SD.

So looking at the ranges... we're going to have plenty of flushes that take this line. Other value like T8s, Q8s, J9s. What bluffs do we even have that call flop?

I would guess we have to dig into the offsuit broadways and AQ, AT are value hands (as is anything with a Q), which only really leaves us AJo and KJo. Now, whether we have enough bluffs available to bluff all spade combos I don't know, presumably we favour As and Ks or this is overkill. I'm doing a solve.

Ok, interesting results.

Pio says we can raise flop with this combo ~15%, rising to 100% with the As.

After calling...



crazy solver actually donks this turn a not inconsiderable 33%. Including some 20% with AJo.

Turn vs cbet:



Similar picture. Yes we do favour KJo basically but some tiny raising with Js is sanctioned it seems.

So essentially if I had consciously rolled a high number this is somewhat ok aggro gto play. But I didn't do that, so it's probably just bad/risky/fluke.

Well, I think you could a little bigger ott. I think your sizing Ng lacked verve. I'll let myself out.

Its a fold. On turn. Cbet 15% with your specific combo not good. You need to lock for best ev of your range. This takes practice. 15% cbet means no cbet (we want to simplify).

Your equity and ev justify lines. That is why 100% with As. So, I lock those hands with the flush potential.

Preferred play, (small pot, flop favors both caller and raiser, but prefers merged betting, condensed ranges) BB is likely to have more condensed range, while you have polarized yourself.

You do not have medium strength holding, you have high cards. So, this board not for you.

Thread title is wasted on people outside the UK. But it did send me down a Richard Ashcroft YouTube journey. The concert in Boston is really good.

All this talk of GTO,
Is getting me down my love,
Like a cat in a bag, waiting to drown,
This buy in's going down....

. I have a softspot for Britpop. One of the few musical 'genre' shifts I got to experience in real time. One that also coincided conveniently with my legal access to alcohol and gigs and sometimes pot.

I think it has very little SDV after V bets the turn. We block flushes, straights and TPTK. I'm not surprised to see the solver reach into this combo. And 20% is not noise. It'll be acting logically for the reasons which I think are fairly obvious. I'm happy to simplify to As in future, but it's useful to know in what direction gto leans when pushed, which I think is the point of that exercise.

Nearly forgot, results fwiw:


PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 256 BB
SB: 273.6 BB
Hero (BB): 194.5 BB
UTG: 99.8 BB
MP: 147.7 BB
CO: 100.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A J

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) T 2 Q
Hero checks, UTG bets 3.1 BB, Hero calls 3.1 BB

Turn: (12.7 BB, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, UTG bets 6.1 BB, Hero raises to 18.3 BB, UTG calls 12.2 BB

River: (49.3 BB, 2 players) K
Hero checks, UTG bets 39 BB, Hero calls 39 BB

UTG shows T A (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 28%, Flop 71%, Turn 77%)
Hero mucks A J (Flush, King High)
(Pre 72%, Flop 29%, Turn 23%)
UTG wins 120.2 BB

i think you bb defend range vs utg 3x is toooo wide

AJo? Even when villains are opening ATo?

I would call down to ATo and thought that was standard tbh

AJo/KQo should be the bottom but i was referring to the range you posted with pio. you are not really supposed to call suited 2 gappers and this QJo stuff is also folding.
ATo can even fold vs 2.5bb

Oh yeah those BB defend ranges are way off. 43s/53s would be the absolute bottom for facing a 2.5x, so vs 3x a bit tighter then

I probably would have called given all the hands that we block. With the combo draw I do like the turn raise. Tough to proceed on river vs a call on turn though - does scream that he has it.