3rd hand in, all I know about villain is that he calls 3x raises w/ A6o (we checked it down and split the pot).




PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero (t1470)
Button (t1530)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 8.
Button calls t10, Hero checks.

no need to mess around.

Flop: (t40) 9, Q, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t40, Button calls t40.

good board to take a stab w/ my gutshot.
Villain INSTAcalls...

Turn: (t120) A (2 players)
Hero bets t80, Button calls t80.

... which is why I fire again. Looks like a weak onepair holding or maybe a draw. Villain takes 2 second max to call.

River: (t280) 6 (2 players)

Hero bets ...



great card... right? Now there are a couple of things to consider. Given that he instacalled (i.e didnt think about raising) on the flop I think a queen is unlikely. Maybe a very weak one. On the A turn he called rather quickly again, so I dont see how he could show up with T9 or any other 3rd pair combination. So if you ask me this guy has either of these: An Ace , two pair or one pair. A set (terribly played obv., but thats standard and has to be included) , T8 or
JT OOORRRRR the flush .

NOW given all that this is what I did:

Hero bets 280$ (full pot)

BECAUSE: none of those holdings that I assigned him will fold (not at an 11$ at stars) EXCEPT JT to which I dont lose value AAAAaaaand there is only one holding that a sane man would raise here, which is the flush (good handreaders & valuebetters would minraise T8 maybe).

thoughts?

(Edit) deleted post.

I didn't see that you had the straight. I don't like potting these kind of hands. I am hoping to get a hero call with middle pair, and that is easier accomplished with a smaller bet.

Well the river saved you here . More often than not I avoid betting the turn and consider surrendering . Of course , if he will fold often enough , then I may consider it , but I don't think the ace convinces him that he's beat .

As for the way it was played , I like your river bet if you think he will call with many inferior hands .

not to be a dick or trying to prove a point that I made... but I gave a reasoning for potting it. Which is yours for not doing it? (i.e you assign him a different range?)

I really had to read in between the lines to get this, but I think it's because he wants to get a hero call from middle pair or worse and he thinks it is more likely to happen with a smaller bet.

well, it definitely IS easier to get hero calls from middle pair when you make a small bet. But the entire point Im trying to make is that I dont see a lot of middle pairs in his range, thus no need for a small bet.

I never really know what to think of the insta-calls. I never think that they are top pair, but I do know it is a hand they would like to take to showdown cheaply, because if they raise, I may light off an ugly fuse.

I also think like this when I am calling down small cards.

But then again, I have been doing terrible for the past 90 games, so this all is probably useful for me to read as well.

if you go with your read-weak hand such as weak queen, middle pair etc, i doubt he is paying you off with that type of hand. I think that you need to value bet here for like 1/2 pot mayb like 160ish because at this point it is hard for him to call lighter than Qx

is it just me or isnt anybody even remotely responding to what I have written? I have even highlighted things in red in my final conclusion.

anyway, Im giving up. Yeah, half pot, bla,.

I think your best options here are like half pot or just smashing all in. An all in will get called by most of the same range that will call a PSB here. If you want to keep the crappy single pairs in then 1/2 or 2/3 is best.

You never need to apologize to me. I realize that I can come across as an egotistical o-hole as well.

Well.....

I am not a huge mathematical player. I have done tons of math and analyzed the crap out of this game when I first started, but I never got into the whole Bayes Theorem thing, and although Game Theory is ever-so-interesting, I don't know much more than optimal strategy for flipping coins.

Analyses:

I seldom watch poker on TV. I did watch one episode of Heads Up poker last year.

Negreanu vs Sheike (?????)

They both had the same hand, like 53 off suit or something. the final baord gave them the dumb end of a straight:

4 6 7 j 8

Negreanu checked and Sheike shoved all in. Negreanu showed the fold and Sheike showed his hand. Negreanu immediately said that was horrible.

Later, he wrote his analysis. That this was a terrible bet because it was essentially a zero value bet. The pot was too small to contest so hotly, and the only way that any one worth have a cent would call is if Sheike was beat.

What does this have to do with your hand?

Well, your are pressing a ton of money into a relatively small pot. The underlying concept, to me, of playing NL is to never ever ever make a decision. If I am forced to make decisions, then I am guessing. When I am guessing, I am bound to make errors. So, my goal is to make sure my opponent is going to make decisions, because if they have to decide, the they will decide wrongly.

Now with your range, you are actually demonstrating that you are probably beat, and especially, when you bet, your opponent is going to have easy decisions, really. You bet big: your opponent know that he can either safely fold a weak/ marginal hand, or you are willing to play for this pot, and a good sized raise (all- in) is in order. You see how you just made a decision easy on your opponent, and hard on yourself?

By betting a smaller amount, you put your opponent on a decision. They may have a strong hand, but they will not be willing to raise a large amount because they will be afraid of losing your action. They may also figure that you don't have much to show, and will simply call. You now forced your opponent to make a decision, and they are both incorrect choices. You have ensured that you will see the showdown cheaply as possible, because you really don't want to fold.

If your opponent has a weak/ marginal hand, then they are going to either call, or they are going to fold, they may take a shot and min-raise, because it would look they are trying to gain value an a strong hand, but, heck, bluffing is fun right. Once again they have to make three more decisions, and they are all wrong.

These are my thoughts. I really hate putting up this kind of stuff on an open forum. There are like 12 posters here and 500 readers, you know.