In the DogIsHead HU series from Deuces Cracked, Internet Pokers gives an example of Fold equity PF on a 5Bet shove and I wanted to get a confirmation on the maths.

Example was .50/1 NLHE.
Villain R to 3$, he 3Bets to 11$, villain 4bets to 27$ and he shoves with 44.

Shove is 89$ in a 38$ pot.

We're assuming that he's 4Bet/calling range is AQ+, TT+, against which our equity is 36.6%.

His conclusion is that we need villain to fold at least 20.7% of the time in this spot for the play to show a profit.

I just don't get to the same number at all, and if it's not a mistake on his part, I'm just not understanding how to make these calculations and would really appreciate some help with this.

My maths goes: When villain folds, we win the 38$ in the pot.

When he calls, we lose 89$ 63.4% of the time and win 111$ (his stack + our 3Bet already in the pot) 36.6% of the time, which is - 56.42 + 40.62 = -16$

So when he calls, our EV= -16$. When he folds, our EV= 38$.

If he's only folding 20% of the time, we're making 7.6$ when he folds (20% of 38$) and losing 80% of 16$ when he calls, which is 12.8$, so this is not even close to break even, given these calculations (which could very well be wrong).

given the above numbers, villain would have to fold at least about 30% of the time fo this play to be profitable, as in 30% of 38 = -11.4$ when he folds, and 70% of (-)16 = 11.2$ when he calls. If these calculations are right, villain needs to be folding basically 1 out of 3 times for this particular play to be profitable. (which is a very high number imo, but that's for another thread)
Could anyone more mathematically enclined than I am confirm either of these calculations. I know he's a great player and I'm probably wrong here, but if I am, I would like to know why so I can learn how to correctly evaluate FE scenarii in the future.

Thank you.

you´re right FE is about 29%. When you look at the commentaries to this Vid, you see, that dogishead has admitted that he had a mistake in the calculation...

Ok, thanks for the confirmation. Kind of reassuring. Was starting to wonder about my intellectual abilities after spending 20 minutes on this...