Quote:
Originally Posted by Rythm
Why?
I don't know specifically what PJ meant, but speaking for myself, I also felt your post was a bit off for this reason: We need to be considering ranges and equity when approaching situations, rather than approaching them on the basis of "hell, I'm going to mix it up and play 56hh all the way to the river and then donk-steal". That seems closer to spew than trickiness/unpredictablity.
So here, when we look at our equity at each point, it's only really the turn where we make a clearly correct EV play. Equally, when we consider villain's ranges preflop/flop/river, we really aren't in great shape at any point: a. preflop even with dead money b. against his made hand range on the flop c. against his overcard to 6 range on the flop and d. against his calling/folding ranges on the river.
So that leaves the question of whether we should look at the flop and decide that we should "make a move" on a scare card or on the river, which is what Noga must have decided. But often, to get his range of better hands to fold we will need to fire twice on that scare card, and if we wait till river, many PP's are not folding to one street getting better than 2.5/1. Certainly A's aren't.
I agree with you that trickiness and unpredictablity is great, but it's only great if the situation is suitable.
Anyway, that's how I saw it, maybe PJ meant something else. And I am certinaly open to correction because I do need to play trickier than I do.