HAND #1

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+1: $10.00
Hero (UTG+2): $59.95
MP1: $15.40
MP2: $8.70
CO: $24.70
BTN: $47.20
SB: $28.30
BB: $12.40
UTG: $40.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG+2 with A K
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, MP1 calls $2, 2 folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.75) K 8 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $3.50, MP1 folds, BTN calls $3.50

Turn: ($13.75) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $9


No reads, seems to be a tight table. what's my plan ?

Why did you check? (I assume it's pot control)

I'd c/c c/c. Unless he makes ultra big bets.

Maybe that's a leak.

good luck

I'd bet the turn and bet the river most likely. Checking gives up one of the few things you have going for you when OOP with a reasonable hand. You cant control the pot when you are OOP you can hope that it stays small but it isn't the same as having control over it.

bet turn so we don't have to make large calls on 2 streets w/ TPTK. If we get raised on turn we can dump it pretty easily.

As played I call turn and make a small blocker of about $7 on river.

honestly, what calls my flop bet that doesn't only have 3 outs, Kx
i'd say more often then not on this flop his call means he has me beat

ofc i'm getting odds to call even if he has set only 50% of the time but since he has position and it's the turn can this ever be a check fold? Should i bet turn and surrender?

also bc of the dryness on the flop, if he called with KQ KJ isn't it best to check the flop and try to get another bet on the river from him? and can't i expect him to check KQ and KJ behind on the turn for the same reasoning that i have

I'd say against a tight villain he can call the flop bet with any PP, Kx, 8x

People expect you to cbet King high dry boards and people think their trash is good enough to float you with. I wouldn't be worried unless he calls the turn as well, and even then, given the rate I steal at, I see normally tight villains stay 3 streets here with hands like A8.

tight villains fold A8 to a raise preflop, even loose ones generally do so idk what ur bangin on about

this is full ring , even a float happy idiot... how often do u think he's floating there? and do u think he's trying to make me fold a King with a big turn bet? i really don't think it's a float

With 2 raisers in the pot when your on the BTN, SCs and Axs hands are very playable hands and in the ranges of a lot players

i disagree, 100BBs, raised pot, A8s is not playable, and if u do play it in his position, u can't be betting the turn like that

are u going to call his river bet? because u have no new info as to how strong his hand is.

r u saying i should fold the turn? Is it wrong to call turn with intention of folding to a river bet if he does indeed bet on river. My turn call will really rep and ace, and ofc it's not wise to try to bluff a player off an ace

i would bet the turn.

its wrong to call turn with intention of folding to a river bet. u are showing huge weakness with a bet check check. he can bet most kings on river that u beat thinking its for value when its actually a good bluff.

Him != you.

Unknown villain could call with all sorts of stuff. Just bet turn for value and fold to a raise. No need to get passive. Against a real nit I can see a c/f on the turn.

i don't think he'll bet a king for value on the river after i check call turn... if it went check check i myself would lead river, i think that's the only way to get more money in from a weaker king anyhow

btw, i know villain is not me, but he'd have to be a 15BB/100 loser to play A8 like that... and no one that plays A8 like that isn't a huge losing loooooose player imo

does anyone disagree?

I had no info on him yet and no reason to think that he was one of the bottom 2% category of players... sure he may be a losing player but chances are that he's not so bad as to make this a call.... was my thought process

I think you guys are really over estimating his hand range and i think he's either bluffing has AK or has me crushed on the turn... and i have no reason to think he's bluffing and i should assume that it's 5X more likely to be a set then an outright float and bluff

these are my opinions, i'm not trying to sound harsh but i really don't see how it's a sound strategy to say.... well maybe maaaaaaaaaaaybe he could have this so we should do this

i think it's ridiculously unlikely, can u please give me reasons not to think so? I know it's only 50NL on PS but it's not 2nl

even a breakeven or hell i believe a winning player might have ace 8 here.

ace 8 suited.

u bet flop. he thinks u missed and are c betting

he calls with second pair best kicker.

u check turn. he now gets worried u have 99-qq. he bets out. he doesnt put u on a king cuz u bet check.

u check call.

river blank. he goes stupid and fires an all in bet that only gets called by better and never by worse.

people do dumb things alot. me is one of them.

You'll never know where you're at unless you bet the turn. Basically, it's a WA/WB situation and since your OOP checking gives you zero information. Furthermore, you can't automatically think you're behind with TPTK when a TAG calls your flop bet, especially if you cbet a lot of flops.

We obviously see these games differently, and I'll admit I'm new to 50NL FR as it stands now having not played much FR since 2005 when I switched to 6 max. I tend to assume players will be a little looser than they are.

...but still I think you maybe put players on too tight a range. 70% of the players are losing players. They are losing because they have fundamental flaws in their understanding of the game. vs an unknown I assume he is an average player which for me means he is making a lot of mistakes and is losing money.

1. What range do you think an average losing player in a tight game will have when he over calls preflop on the button here?

2. What range do you think an average losing player in a tight game will have when he calls your flop bet?

For me:

1. 22+, Axs, 45s+, ATo+, any 2 suited broadway.

2. 33, 66+, 78s, 89s, any K from 1.

If you had stats on him like he was 10/8 then I change this range but otherwise, vs an unknown I think its better to assume he will be calling with a wider range.

Wat?

You keep betting until someone tells you they can beat TPTK. There's lots of Kx hands that will stay with you on all three streets.

As played, call turn and bet river.

Ok No HUD no stats.

What we know.
Villian MP1 likely losse passive or shortstacker.
If loose passive must be very bad player likely last money at table.
If Shortstacker - bad shortstacker as he is either set mining badly or playing too passively. (BTW any shortstacker playing less than 100NL is at best breakeven player)

Villian two
BTN likely loose passive as he has not refreshed. Again likely non winner or regular.

Our Plan.
Preflop
We have a strong holding in early position - so we are betting for value.
We are looking to build the pot and bet for value if we hit and fold to any strong resistance with non made hands except vs shortstacker loose passive where we are likely to have to call with overcards to any shove after our c-bet.

Villians ranges.
If shortstack ALL pairs and A10+ Plus all KQ KJ
Villian two very wide range... ALL most all of the top 30% of range.

Flop
We hit TPTK
We are looking to get it in vs shortstacker HU.
We are going to bet the flop for value.
We are going to proceed with a bet bet bet approach unless Villian 2 tells us otherwise.
We have to bet because of being OOP....
The reason for this is simple if we bet and shortstack shoves then Villian 2 acts before us. We can then decide if we want to shove or fold. This is a feel decision.
If we check the flop and shortstack just bets then we have no good imformation on villians holding for a c/r to isolate shortstacker.

Our bet size on the flop should be consistent with the strength of our hand. We are looking for a pot size that reflects our hand. I think 75% of the flop is reasonable.
~$4.5-$5

Turn bricks....so Given your bet size I think we should be betting again I think our size now is close to $10 and the fact we are HU now vs BTN loose passive. This is a clear bet for value.

Pot size will be approx 60-65BB.

It is likely that will not get 3 sts out of his range......I suspect we might check/call all non shoves on most rivers.....The reason for this is we probably will be unable to execute a bet/fold river play due to stack sizes. This is prolematic and is a good example of the functional disadvantage of being OOP.

GL at the Tables

Cheers Dog

Haven't read any responses.

Preflop: opening AK is standard, obv. I note the callers, MP1 has less than 20BB and flatted me, so I assume he is bad. BTN has a weird stack and overcalled, I will assume he is pretty bad. I'm committed vs MP1 regardless of flop. Against BTN, I'm probably not committed, but I'll certainly aim to play a medium pot against him, if shortie runs away. If we get a side pot going, I'll bet into it, but with a bit more caution (just in case he isn't a TOTAL drooler and sees the significance of us wanting to build a side pot).

Flop: We hit on a super dry board and I'm making my decision right now as to whether I want to commit or not...and that'll probably depend on mood, table feel, and whether or not I've seen BTN stack off with TP2K and such. If so, I'm betting $3.25 on the flop so that if shortie shoves, betting isn't closed. If he does, and BTN sticks around, I'm jamming over him, aiming to stack a worse TP that feels committed. If I'm not aiming to commit, I'll probably bet about this size.

Turn, shortie leaves, but BTN is still around. His calling range is probably KJ+/KTs+/89s/78s and PPs (sets included). Whether or not I bet here is really dependent on how aggro the BTN plays. If he's like most 50NL players, he's probably not going to try and steal it if you check, but will call with worse K's and will probably raise sets and 2pair at this point. I prefer bet/folding here because we get to set the price and we don't miss out on value from the "average" 50 NL player who will call 2 (3?) streets with KQ/KJ/KT. By checking, we're assuming that he'd rather fire with air then check, see a free card, and fire river if you check again (probably better). We opt to check and he fires 2/3...but with what? We really don't know without reads, and I'm pretty certain that he's firing river again if we check (either because he thinks he has the best hand or because he's "invested too much now".) I probably groan and call turn.

River: If we had bet turn and gotten called, I'm probably betting again (for value) and either calling or folding depending on what the river is. After taking the c/c line on the turn, it depends entirely on the river. On a blank, I might actually b/f for like 1/3 pot or if he was really aggro and the draws missed, I might c/c or bet 1/4 and try an induce a shove (but players at 50 really aren't bluff/shoving rivers all that much IME). If draws come in, I'm prolly c/fing and then leaving the table/drinking a beer. Just my .02